Launched on Saturday morning, the offensive led by the United States and Israel against Iran has intensified, with no sign of de-escalation. Israel struck Lebanon in retaliation for Hezbollah rocket fire, while Tehran launched missiles and drones toward Israel, several Gulf states, and a British air base in Cyprus.

The Iranian response immediately reignited fears over global energy supplies. Wholesale gas prices in the Netherlands and the UK soared by more than 40%, spiking as much as 50% during the session—a surge not seen in nearly four years. The main trigger: an announcement from Qatar Energy of a halt in its liquefied natural gas (LNG) production.

At the same time, a large number of oil tanker operators, major oil companies, and traders suspended shipments of crude, fuels, and LNG through the Strait of Hormuz after Tehran threatened vessels using this strategic route. This added to the jitters in energy markets.

According to Monica Defend, head of Amundi Investment Institute, the Iranian crisis marks a lasting shift: geopolitics is once again a central macroeconomic factor. Oil, she says, is the main transmission channel to the economy and financial markets. Barring a major disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, however, oil prices are unlikely to remain sustainably above 100 USD. "As long as energy supply remains secure, this is more a volatility shock than a systemic shock," she notes.

"Given the escalation of the conflict, it seems unlikely that Iran will return to the negotiating table in the coming days. In our view, the most likely scenario would be a 'technical' end to the conflict, resulting from the depletion of Iranian military resources and ammunition. At this stage, the key question is how long the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed," says Christophe Boucher, Chief Investment Officer at ABN AMRO Investment Solutions.

Airline stocks were particularly hard hit. For the third consecutive day, the main Middle Eastern hubs—including Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi—remained closed. Thousands of flights were disrupted and tens of thousands of passengers stranded. Air France-KLM (-9.43%) finished at the bottom of the SBF 120 index. Elsewhere in Europe, the downward trend was broad-based: EasyJet (-3.22%), Wizz Air (-6.56%), IAG (-5.66%), and Ryanair (-2.29%).

The tourism sector was also penalized, from Accor (-8.89%), the worst performer on the CAC 40, to TUI (-9.90%), as well as Booking (-2.85%) and Airbnb (-2.14%).

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Returns to Growth

 By contrast, oil and defense stocks were in demand, with TotalEnergies up 3.09% and Thales gaining 0.39%. SES shares (+6.09%) stood out, soaring after quarterly results beat expectations and 2026 guidance was deemed solid, amid the integration of Intelsat.

On the political front, the strikes ordered by Donald Trump have divided American public opinion. According to a Reuters-Ipsos poll, support remains measured, even among Republican voters, where it stands at 55%.

In France, Emmanuel Macron warned that the war against Iran "brings and will bring its share of instability and potential flare-ups at our borders," highlighting the risks posed by an Iran whose nuclear and ballistic capabilities are not fully neutralized.

On the data front, in the eurozone, the HCOB manufacturing index compiled by S&P Global came in at 50.8 in February, up from 49.5 in January, climbing above the 50-point threshold for the first time since August.

In Germany, the final HCOB manufacturing PMI stood at 50.9 in February, compared to 49.1 in January, signaling an improvement in business conditions. It crossed above the 50.0 threshold—indicating expansion—for the first time since June 2022.

In the United States, the ISM manufacturing index rose to 52.4, compared with 52.6 the previous month. Economists had forecast 51.8.

On the currency market, the dollar gained 0.83% to 0.8563 EUR.