Expected Flat Opening Ahead of ECB Decision

(Alliance News) - On Thursday, European stock markets are poised for a muted open, according to futures, as the European Central Bank is set to announce its interest rate decision.

Traders do not anticipate a change in direction from Christine Lagarde, who is expected to keep the current policy unchanged.

Futures on Thursday indicate a broadly uniform and fragile trend across European exchanges: the Mib is seen fractionally lower by 12.5 points, the CAC 40 and DAX 40 are expected to open essentially flat, while the FTSE 100 is projected to contract by 0.2% or 19 points.

Last night, the Mib closed up by 0.5% at 46,636.43 points, the Mid-Cap rose 0.1% to 60,031.66, the Small-Cap gained 0.1% to 36,702.93, while Italy Growth slipped 0.4% to 8,729.10 points.

The CAC 40 and FTSE 100 also posted gains of 1.0% and 1.1% respectively, while the DAX 40 lost 0.4%.

At Piazza Affari on Wednesday, the market welcomed the Lovaglio plan, betting on the delisting of Mediobanca on the day of the controlling shareholder Monte dei Paschi's meeting. Luigi Lovaglio's plan, presented to investors and shareholders during the OPS, envisaged EUR700 million in synergies, the merger of MPS and Mediobanca, and the delisting of the bank founded by Enrico Cuccia.

MPS shares rose 1.2%, while Mediobanca gained 5.8%.

The Canadian government is preparing a reimbursement claim worth hundreds of millions of dollars against Stellantis and General Motors, accusing them of scaling back production in the country despite having received public incentives; Stellantis shares gained 3.5% to EUR8.662 per share.

Eni and Q8 Italia are resuming their partnership in a strategic investment to build a new biorefinery in Priolo, Sicily. The biorefinery will have a capacity of 500,000 tonnes per year and will be able to produce Hvo-diesel or Saf-biojet. Construction work is expected to be completed by the end of 2028. Eni rose 1.4% on the day.

Leonardo – down 4.7% – signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the Indonesian Ministry of Defence and PT ESystem Solutions to supply the M-346 F "Block 20" to the Indonesian Air Force. The agreement, announced at the Singapore Airshow 2026, supports fleet modernization and includes training, maintenance, and local industrial development.

Defence was also weak with Fincantieri, which fell 2.4% to EUR15.59 per share.

UBS said it is "cautiously optimistic" on STMicroelectronics, up 3.6%, reiterating a 'buy' recommendation. Overall, according to the bank's analysts, "STM will benefit from idiosyncratic growth drivers, such as satellite opportunities and a strong cyclical rebound following a significant inventory reduction in 2025."

On the Mid-Cap, Lane, the US subsidiary of Webuild, fell 1.7% but was awarded a USD389 million contract – about EUR336 million – for the design and execution of expansion and modernization works on Interstate 64 in Norfolk, Virginia, USA.

Anima Holding closed 2025 with solid results, supported by positive inflows, increased assets under management, and improving profitability. Consolidated net profit rose to EUR266.7 million, up 16%, while normalized net profit stood at EUR286.5 million, up 4%. The stock responded positively, rising 2.0%.

Tinexta, up 0.1%, responded to some press rumors by stating that its subsidiary Tinexta Infocert, as part of the group's external growth strategy, is continuously assessing multiple strategic opportunities.

Tamburi Investment Partners, down 1.2%, increased its stake in ITH, the holding company controlling the Sesa group, from 21.5% to 23.8% – net of treasury shares pending cancellation – while Sesa fell 8.2%.

BFF Bank rebounded to the top with a 14% gain to EUR4.70 per share, as Deutsche Bank Research confirmed its 'hold' recommendation but cut the target price to EUR6.20 from EUR10.50, in light of the bank's recent communications.

Among small caps, Bastogi shares soared to the top with a 23% gain to EUR0.964 per share after the company announced the sale of its entire share capital in Forumnet Holding to the international group Live Nation. The deal brought in EUR62 million in net proceeds, well above expectations.

Aedes closed down 7.6% at EUR0.085 per share, followed by SYS-DAT, which fell 5.7% to EUR5.96 per share.

Italian Exhibition Group saw strong daily gains of over 11% after updating its industrial plan, forecasting 2030 revenues between EUR360 million and EUR365 million, adjusted EBITDA between EUR100 million and EUR105 million, net financial position at EUR44 million, and an investment plan of EUR210 million.

On Italy Growth, Cyberoo – up 1.8% – and Cometa announced the signing of a strategic distribution agreement aimed at significantly boosting Cyberoo's solutions presence in the Italian market.

Adventure, down 8.4%, reported 2025 production value between EUR17.0 million and EUR18.5 million. Growth in production value over 2024 is between 56% and 69%. 2025 EBITDA is expected in a range between EUR2.4 million and EUR2.7 million, with a margin between 13% and 15%.

Powersoft, down 2.8%, appointed Intermonte as its new specialist operator, effective March 5. Until then, the company's specialist will remain Banca Profilo.

Racing Force closed 2025 with consolidated revenues of EUR73.1 million, up EUR7.5 million from EUR65.7 million in the previous year, corresponding to an 11% increase. The stock ended up 4.9% at EUR5.14 per share.

In New York, the Dow Jones gained 0.5% to 49,501 points, the S&P 500 fell 0.5% to 6,883 points, while the Nasdaq dropped 1.8% to 24,891 points.

On the currency front, the euro changed hands at USD1.1800 from USD1.1798 at Wednesday's European equity close, while the pound traded at USD1.3625 from USD1.3653 last night.

Among commodities, Brent traded at USD68.16 per barrel from USD67.46 per barrel on Wednesday, while gold was valued at USD4,922.83 an ounce from USD4,917.87 an ounce last night.

Thursday's macroeconomic calendar features, at 0930 CET, construction PMIs for Italy, Germany, France, and the Eurozone, followed an hour later by the same indicator for the UK. At 1000 CET, focus shifts to Italy's retail sales, while Eurozone figures will be released an hour later.

The highlight of the day will be central banks: the Bank of England's rate decision is due at 1300 CET, while the European Central Bank's decision is expected at 1415 CET, half an hour before President Christine Lagarde's press conference.

With the exception of weekly jobless claims at 1430 CET and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet due at 2230 CET, the US macro calendar does not feature any other significant data.

Among the companies listed on Piazza Affari, results are expected from Banco BPM, Credito Emiliano, Enel, FinecoBank, Generalfinance, Kruso Kapital, and Piquadro.

By Michele Cirulli, Alliance News reporter

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