Exxon, Chevron Post Slimmest Annual Profits Since 2021 -- Commodities Roundup

MARKET MOVEMENTS:

--Brent crude oil is up 0.6% to $70.03 a barrel.

--European benchmark gas is up 1.8% to 39.28 euros a megawatt-hour.

--Gold futures are down 5.9% to $5,039.10 a troy ounce.

--LME three-month copper futures are down 3.4% to $13,231 a metric ton.

TOP STORY:

Exxon, Chevron Post Slimmest Annual Profits Since 2021

America's two largest oil companies on Friday posted their smallest annual profits since 2021, pressured by a growing glut of crude that has weighed on prices.

Exxon Mobil and Chevron also reported their fourth-quarter earnings declined year over year, though both companies increased oil-and-gas production.

Oil prices began sinking shortly after President Trump returned to office and urged the Saudi Arabia-led Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to boost oil production in an already well-supplied global oil market.

OTHER STORIES:

London Metal Exchange Resumes Trade After Technical Glitch

SYDNEY--The London Metal Exchange delayed the start of trading on Friday due to technical issues, temporarily stifling activity as commodities markets experience one of their wildest weeks.

Trading on the LME, which sets benchmark prices for a range of commodities including copper and aluminum, was offline for roughly one hour. The LME's electronic platform usually starts trading at 1:00 a.m. London time.

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Chinalco, Rio Tinto to Buy Control of Brazilian Aluminum Maker CBA

Aluminum Corp. of China and Rio Tinto agreed to buy a majority stake in Companhia Brasileira de Aluminio for about $900 million.

Chinalco subsidiary Chalco and Rio Tinto will acquire the nearly 69% stake in CBA from Brazilian conglomerate Votorantim for roughly 4.69 billion reais, equivalent to $903.5 million. The shareholding will be bought via a joint venture that will be 67% owned by the Chinese metals giant, the acquirers said in separate statements Friday.

MARKET TALKS:

Cocoa's Slide Is Expected But Short-Term Rebound Is Possible -- Market Talk

1616 GMT - Cocoa's recent price decline is broadly in line with expectations, though it has been steeper and faster than anticipated, says Rabobank's Oran van Dort. Over the longer term, structural oversupply is likely to keep prices on a downward trajectory. In the near term, however, prices appear to have scope for a corrective rebound, with any bullish catalyst potentially triggering short covering. "A potential bullish catalyst would be a significant long term deterioration in West African weather," the commodity analyst says. "On the downside, risks include a larger?than?expected Ecuador crop or further weakening demand." Cocoa futures are down 0.4% to $4,167 a ton. ([e-mail])

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Weather Damage on U.S. Wheat Crop Yet to Be Determined -- Market Talk

1054 ET - The real damage caused by extreme weather on U.S. winter wheat crop won't be known for a few weeks, but concerns are mounting. StoneX's Arlan Suderman estimates that cold temperatures over areas lacking sufficient snow cover put 15% to 20% of the crop at risk. He says it could take up to six weeks to see the full scope of the impact. Suderman adds that the Black Sea region is also expected to see extremely low temperatures in the coming days. "Most central and northern areas have sufficient snow cover to protect the wheat, but southern areas do not," he says. On the CBOT, wheat falls 0.7%. ([e-mail]; @ptrevisani)

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Soybean Futures Fall as Weather Supports Brazil's 'Monster' Crop -- Market Talk

0955 ET - Oversupply is the main driver of grain futures, AgResource says in a report. "Soybeans and soymeal face the greatest downside price risk amid a monster Brazilian soybean crop," the firm says. Rainfall is expected to keep crops "well watered" in Brazil. Although dryness is noted in the southern part of the country, "crop stress is limited due to adequate soil moisture." AgResource notes that the soybean growing season will end late next month "and it was largely free of weather threats." Early harvest data show a record-high yield trend, with a crop of more than 184 million metric tons, the firm says. On the CBOT, soybeans fall 0.3%. ([e-mail]; @ptrevisani)

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Grain Futures Mostly High Amid U.S.-Iran Tensions -- Market Talk

0943 ET - Grain futures are mostly higher as markets worry about potential supply-chain disruptions in the event of a U.S.-Iran war. Wheat extends gains fueled by geopolitical tension, while corn takes support from President Trump's apparent backing of higher ethanol content in gasoline. Soybeans are down on the prospect of massive Brazilian crops. On the macro front, wholesale inflation is higher than expected and markets see President Trump's pick for Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, as unlikely to speed up the pace of interest rate cuts. That supports the dollar and cools down the metals rally. On the CBOT, soybeans fall 0.6%, corn rises 0.5% and wheat gains 0.2%. ([e-mail]; @ptrevisani)

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U.S. Natural Gas Presses Higher on Weather-Driven Demand -- Market Talk

0938 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are gaining in early trade as weather forecasts maintain high demand for heating. Yesterday's larger-than-expected 242 Bcf storage withdrawal ahead of winter storm Fern is contributing to the rise, with more extensive draws foreseen in coming reports. "The bulk of the extreme cold and recent production shut-ins were not fully reflected in this report," Andy Huenefeld of Pinebrook Energy Advisors says in a note. And even as temperatures revert closer to normal in the first week of February, "a cold bias is expected to remain in place over key population centers in the eastern half of the country." Nymex gas for March delivery is up 4.5% at $4.095/mmBtu. ([e-mail])

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Crude Futures Move Lower As Market Watches Iran

0832 ET - Oil futures slip, with the market watching for talks between the U.S. and Iran that could put off potential U.S. military action. Increased risk of strikes against Iran with the U.S. military buildup in the region was largely what sent oil prices to multi-month highs this week. "The market appears to be concerned about the potential blockade of Iranian crude oil exports or a threat by Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz," Alex Hodes of StoneX says in a note. While a drop in exports would be a substantial supply disruption, closure of the strait appears to be an "extremely unlikely scenario," he adds. WTI is off 0.6% at $65.02 a barrel. Most active Brent is off 0.7% at $69.14.([e-mail])

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Cocoa Dips Under $4,000 on Falling Demand -- Market Talk

1142 GMT - Cocoa prices fall below $4,000, pressured by falling demand due to a prolonged period of elevated prices. Futures in New York are down 1.7% to $4,104 a metric ton after falling to $3,931 a ton earlier in the session, the lowest since November 2023. "Additional headwinds came from forecasts by commodities broker StoneX, which predicts significant supply surpluses on the global cocoa market for the current 2025-26 crop year and the coming 2026-27 crop year," says Carsten Fritsch from Commerzbank. "By the end of 2026-27, the ratio of stocks to grindings is expected to rise to nearly 40%. This would bring stocks back to their historical average." The stocks-to-grindings ratio measures how much cocoa is in storage compared with how much is being processed into products like chocolate. ([e-mail])

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Palm Oil Drops, Tracking Soybean Oil's Weakness -- Market Talk

1017 GMT - Palm oil ended lower as weakness in the Chicago soybean oil market and a strong ringgit weighed on sentiment, says David Ng, trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. Palm oil prices could find support at 4,200 ringgit a ton and face resistance at 4,350 ringgit a ton, he adds. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for April delivery fell 88 ringgit to 4,229 ringgit a ton. ([e-mail])

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Gold Could Hit $6,200/oz This Year -- Market Talk

1008 GMT - Gold will likely reach $6,200/oz in the first nine months of the year before moderating to $5,900/oz by the end of 2026, UBS analysts write in a note. Demand will be stronger than expected, driven by higher investment activity rather than increased central bank purchases, they say. UBS projects an upside scenario target of $7,200/oz and a downside scenario of $4,600/oz. A hawkish pivot by the Fed could heighten the risks to the downside, while a steep escalation in geopolitical tensions could bring it closer to the upside scenario, the analysts add. UBS continues to rate gold as attractive and maintains a long position in its global asset allocation. ([e-mail]; @ivy_jiahuihuang)

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Copper Retreats After Record Run -- Market Talk

0902 GMT - Copper prices pull back amid broader risk-off sentiment and a firmer U.S. dollar after breaking a new record in the previous session. In early trading, futures on the London Metal Exchange slide 2.9% to $13,310 a metric ton but remain on track for a weekly gain of 1.4%. Copper surged past $14,000 a ton on Thursday as a spike in activity across China's exchanges helped push both LME and Comex prices to fresh record highs. "While longer-term macro conditions remain supportive, several near-term micro drivers do not justify higher prices at this stage, increasing the risk of sharp pullbacks given the speculative nature of the latest surge," analysts at Saxo Bank say. ([e-mail])

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Oil Pulls Back But Remains on Track for Strong Weekly Gain

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01-30-26 1143ET