While Brent remains contained below $100 per barrel, Exxon Mobil is alerting the market to a growing disconnect between the apparent calm in the futures market and the mounting tension in physical trading. Speaking at a Bernstein conference in New York, Neil Chapman, Senior Vice President of the US major, warned that global inventories of crude, gasoline, diesel and jet fuel are approaching "unprecedented" lows following weeks of drawdowns intended to offset the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

He says that physical Brent prices could surge towards $150 to $160 per barrel once inventories hit their operational floor. This threshold could be reached within the next two to three weeks, although the exact timing remains difficult to predict. "Once that point is reached, prices have only one way to go," Chapman summarized, explaining that rebalancing would then occur through demand destruction, as prices become prohibitive for certain consumers.

The paradox lies in the fact that Brent futures remain near $94, supported by hopes of a deal between Washington and Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, this easing primarily reflects diplomatic expectations, while physical flows remain severely disrupted. According to the International Energy Agency, the closure of the strait has already deprived the market of over one billion barrels of oil, marking the largest oil supply interruption ever recorded.

This tension has so far been cushioned by commercial stocks, Western strategic reserves, and certain flows of sanctioned oil. However, Exxon believes that these buffers are being exhausted. Chevron offered a similar diagnosis, with CEO Mike Wirth judging that pressures are likely to be transmitted more directly to physical prices in June and July.