It has now become the ritual that starts our day: checking where oil prices stand. This morning, Brent crude is edging higher, at around 105 dollars a barrel, after the United States targeted Kharg Island over the weekend. A small territory that allows Iran to export almost all of its oil. It is the first American strike on this highly strategic point. For now, only military installations have been targeted, but Donald Trump has threatened further strikes if Iran continues to retaliate. Axios even suggests that a scenario involving the seizure of the terminal is being examined at the Pentagon.

As you will have gathered, this is still not a moment of de-escalation. In the meantime, each passing day only raises the bill for the global economy. On Saturday, Donald Trump called on China, France, Japan, South Korea and the United Kingdom to help reopen navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. But no one appears to be rushing forward. Japan has already declined. While France, which currently holds the G7 presidency, is trying to build a coalition, everyone wants guarantees before committing costly equipment to the Strait. It will undoubtedly be one of the major issues of the week.

The conflict in the Middle East has therefore entered its third week. Three weeks spent tracking missile launches, drone attacks, burning oil tankers. I would like to use this column to point out that we are still only in mid-March. So a brief reminder of everything we have already been through in 2026: the kidnapping of Nicolas Maduro, threats to annex Greenland, fears of disruption from artificial intelligence, concerns about private credit, and now a conflict in the Middle East. All of this in just ten weeks. A few days ago, my Bloomberg colleague Jonathan Ferro quite rightly spoke of the "longest first quarter in the history of first quarters".

From a media perspective, one story quickly replaces another, and war and its consequences obviously overshadow everything else. For markets, however, crises accumulate rather than replace each other. And that is precisely the problem.

Let me take two examples to illustrate this. Private credit has experienced spectacular growth in recent years, and cracks are now beginning to appear. As long as the economy holds up, the damage remains limited. But if there is a slowdown, or even a recession, default rates rise and the issue can quickly become systemic. Another example: the Federal Reserve can cut interest rates to respond to a slowdown in the labour market, except if an energy crisis sends inflation rising again. The conclusion is simple: each of these shocks can be managed independently, but matters become far more complicated if they all occur simultaneously.

Investors are therefore facing what might be described as a wall of fears. The good news is that this is, to some extent, the very logic of equity markets. Markets are always forward-looking and must price in every risk lying ahead. In the end, equities rise as the darkest scenarios are gradually ruled out. In other words, markets begin by anticipating the end of the world, only to realise progressively that we are not all going to die, at least not immediately.

The pattern I am describing does not entirely match the current situation, since the decline in equity indices has been relatively limited: minus 4 percent for the S&P 500 and minus 6 percent for the Stoxx 600 during the month of March. But the logic still holds. Every cause for concern at a given moment becomes a potential reason to buy later on, if the situation improves.

That was what happened in 2022, to take a somewhat comparable environment. It is also what we experienced last year with tariffs. In early April, investors were bracing for recession, a resurgence of inflation, in short for all the words we dislike that end in "tion". Then came the retreats by Donald Trump, trade agreements, and artificial intelligence continuing to support American growth.

This week will be marked by meetings of the major central banks. In fact, it resembles a fireworks display, as we will have in sequence the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank. All are expected to opt for a wait-and-see stance, while they try to gain clearer visibility. The current situation places them in a particularly delicate position: an energy crisis simultaneously means weaker growth and higher inflation. The market, for its part, has already shelved expectations of rate cuts. Investors no longer expect any rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in 2026. As for the ECB, the pendulum has already swung the other way: the market now expects two quarter-point rate increases by the end of the year.

In the rest of the news:

  • The Financial Times reports that EU foreign ministers will today discuss a potential expansion of the Aspides mission, which currently protects vessels from Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, to include the Strait of Hormuz.
  • The International Energy Agency said that the 400 million barrels of oil that member countries have pledged to release from their strategic reserves will be brought to market immediately for Asia-Pacific members, and at the end of the month for Europe and the Americas.
  • Bahrain has frozen part of the aluminium output of the world's largest smelter in order to preserve its raw material inventories.
  • US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng are currently in Paris preparing the meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, scheduled in two weeks' time in Beijing. The American president has floated the possibility of cancelling the summit because of the situation in Hormuz, particularly if China does not help secure the Strait.
  • In China, meanwhile, industrial production growth was stronger than expected in January and February. Retail sales were also more vigorous than economists had anticipated.

Today's Economic Highlights:

Today's agenda includes: in China, the House Price Index, Retail Sales, Fixed Asset Investment, and Industrial Production will be released; FDI data will also be available. In Canada, Housing Starts and Inflation Rates will be in focus. In the United States, Retail Sales, Retail Inventories, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, Industrial Production, Business Inventories, and the NAHB Housing Market Index are expected. See the full calendar here.

  • GBP / USD: US$1.33
  • Gold: US$5,006.18
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): US$104.8
  • United States 10 years: 4.26%
  • BITCOIN: US$73,845.7

In corporate news:

  • EQT has completed its exit from the capital of Galderma.
  • AstraZeneca has announced the approval of Imfinzi in the European Union for early-stage stomach cancers.
  • BP has secured US approval for the Kaskida project in the Gulf of Mexico.
  • Fitch has upgraded British American Tobacco's long-term rating from BBB+ to A-, with a stable outlook.
  • Lufthansa has extended the suspension of its flights to Dubai.
  • Meta is planning a massive wave of layoffs as costs linked to artificial intelligence surge.
  • The chief executives of Exxon, Chevron and ConocoPhillips have warned the Trump administration that a conflict with Iran in the Strait of Hormuz would worsen the energy crisis, according to the Wall Street Journal.
  • GSK Plc and Amgen will add drugs to TrumpRx, according to Fox.
  • Nvidia opens its annual developers conference today.
  • Elon Musk says Tesla will launch its chip factory project within a week.
  • JD.com is reportedly preparing to launch its e-commerce services in Europe.
  • The success of the new Pokémon game has sent Nintendo shares sharply higher.
  • BYD will launch a high-end fast-charging electric vehicle in Europe next month.
  • PayPay's chief executive is considering a potential listing in Tokyo after the company's debut on the US market.

See more news from UK listed companies here

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Haleon Plc: Berenberg maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 13.86 to USD 13.92.
  • Reckitt Benckiser Group Plc: Morgan Stanley upgrades to overweight from market weight and reduces the target price from GBX 6500 to GBX 6300.
  • Unilever Plc: Morgan Stanley maintains its overweight recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 5470 to GBX 5350.
  • Henkel Ag & Co. Kgaa: Berenberg maintains its hold recommendation and reduces the target price from EUR 80.40 to EUR 79.50.
  • Accelleron Industries Ag: Oddo BHF maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from CHF 70 to CHF 76.
  • Stmicroelectronics N.v.: Oddo BHF maintains its outperform rating and raises the target price from EUR 36 to EUR 40.
  • Ferrari N.v.: Oddo BHF maintains its neutral recommendation and reduces the target price from EUR 330 to EUR 300.
  • Vat Group Ag: Rothschild & Co Redburn maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from CHF 540 to CHF 570.
  • Lindt : Berenberg maintains its sell recommendation and reduces the target price from CHF 108770 to CHF 102520.
  • Lvmh: BNP Paribas maintains its neutral recommendation and reduces the target price from EUR 650 to EUR 560.