Equity markets continue to sail in a sea of paradoxes. The US S&P 500 gained 1.1% last week. That may not sound like much, yet it marked its best weekly performance since the first week of January. Those gains came even as the Trump administration suffered a major setback with the cancellation of a large share of the White House's tariffs, on the grounds that it had wrongly relied on domestic emergency legislation.

Between the lines, this suggests that the market is unable to determine whether tariffs are a good or a bad thing. That is faintly unsettling in a world supposedly organised, labelled and optimised down to the last basis point. Meanwhile, European and Asian equities, enjoying a less turbulent news flow, continue to notch up record after record.

Let us briefly revisit Friday's headline event. The US Supreme Court struck down a broad swathe of Donald Trump's tariffs, curbing the White House's ability to deploy sweeping tariffs at will. Yet uncertainty has by no means evaporated. The 47th President of the United States responded almost immediately, imposing a new general tariff of 10%, only to raise it to 15% the following day and to threaten fresh trade investigations that could justify further increases.

For analysts, the President has lost his most flexible instrument, the emergency argument. The new procedures are likely to be slower and more tightly circumscribed, with a 150-day limit. The prevailing view, however, is that the administration will find ways to preserve this revenue stream, even if that means shifting its legal rationale and reigniting confrontation.

The ruling also leaves numerous grey areas, notably over potential refunds of duties collected unlawfully. That should keep a few lawyers busy for some time. In the meantime, US Customs has announced that it will cease collecting so-called "reciprocal" tariffs on Tuesday morning. As for duties already negotiated or under discussion, confusion reigns: the European Union has said it will suspend ratification of the compromise reached with Washington. India has postponed negotiations. China is assessing the situation, while Japanese officials have expressed a degree of satisfaction at the removal of the initial tariffs. The US Trade Representative, Jamieson Greer, has insisted that the Supreme Court's decision does not call bilateral agreements into question.

Markets initially stayed in TACO mode on Friday, shorthand for "Trump Always Chickens Out": in the universe fashioned by Mr Trump, the scenery may shift constantly, but in the end Wall Street tends to come out ahead. After a few hours' reflection, that reading looks slightly less straightforward this morning, though it remains the dominant backdrop.

Now to the developments not to be missed as the week gets under way:

  • Scott Bessent believes it is possible that previous US tariffs will remain largely unchanged in 2026.
  • Donald Trump is due to travel to China from 31 March to 2 April 2026. Shortly thereafter, he is expected to welcome his Brazilian counterpart, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, to Washington.
  • The United States did not strike Iran over the weekend, but tensions remain elevated as negotiations over Iran's nuclear programme are set to resume in Geneva.
  • In Mexico, the drug lord known as "El Mencho" was killed in a military operation, triggering unrest locally and across parts of South America.

On the corporate calendar, Nvidia and Synopsys report on Wednesday, followed on Thursday by Salesforce, Intuit, Dell and CoreWeave, offering a read-through on the health of software and artificial intelligence. In Europe, Britain takes centre stage, with results from Standard Chartered, HSBC, Diageo and Rolls-Royce. Iberdrola, Bayer, Schneider, AXA and Engie will also be in focus.

On the macro front: the week will be dominated by several speeches from European Central Bank and Federal Reserve officials, along with a fresh batch of price indicators on Friday, preliminary February inflation in France and Germany, followed by US January producer prices.

In Asia-Pacific, Japan, down 1.1%, and Australia, off 0.6%, have started the week in negative territory. Hong Kong, by contrast, is up 2.6%. Gains are more modest in South Korea, India and Taiwan, at around 0.5%. Indices are expected to open lower in Europe, while US futures are flashing deep red.

Today's economic highlights:

On today's agenda: the Ifo Business Climate Index in Germany; in the United States, Fed Waller's speech, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Factory Orders MoM, and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index; ECB President Lagarde's speech in the Euro Area. See the full calendar here.

  • GBP / USD: US$1.35
  • Gold: US$5,150.39
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): US$71.02
  • United States 10 years: 4.09%
  • BITCOIN: US$65,806.8

In corporate news:

  • Rolls-Royce is seeking UK government subsidies of £100-200 million for its £3 billion UltraFan 30 engine project.
  • Standard Chartered has launched the STAR fund in partnership with Seviora Capital, targeting high-net-worth clients with access to exclusive hedge fund managers.
  • OSB Group has appointed Enrique Labiano as its new CEO, succeeding Andy Golding.
  • Enel acquires US wind and solar farms for $1 billion.
  • Honeywell is considering withdrawing from its agreement with Johnson Matthey in catalysts, according to Bloomberg.
  • Almirall forecasts revenue growth of between 9% and 12% this year.
  • PostNL reports higher-than-expected operating profit.
  • Hella forecasts an operating margin of between 5.4% and 6% for 2026.
  • RWE and Vestas sign agreement to supply wind turbines for the Vanguard West offshore wind farm.
  • Novartis and Unnatural Products collaborate on peptide therapies.
  • Tesla loses $243 million verdict in Autopilot accident lawsuit.
  • The US Department of Justice is investigating Netflix's influence on film production as part of its review of the Warner agreement, according to Bloomberg.
  • Google (Alphabet) is in talks to invest around $100 million in startup Fluidstack, according to the WSJ.
  • Microsoft announces the appointment of Asha Sharma as executive vice president and CEO of Microsoft Gaming.
  • OpenAI expects to consume $112 billion more than expected by 2030, according to The Information.

See more news from UK listed companies here

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Whitbread Plc: Barclays maintains its equalweight recommendation and reduces the target price from GBP 27 to GBP 26.
  • Greatland Gold: Argonaut Securities Pty Limited maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from GBP 7.80 to GBP 8.30.
  • Quilter Plc: JP Morgan maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from GBP 2.10 to GBP 2.23.
  • Centrica Plc: JP Morgan maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from GBP 2.03 to GBP 2.24.
  • Bbva: Deutsche Bank maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from EUR 19.75 to EUR 21.25.
  • Caixabank, S.a.: Deutsche Bank upgrades to hold from sell with a price target raised from EUR 9.15 to EUR 11.05.
  • Bankinter, S.a.: Deutsche Bank upgrades to buy from hold with a price target raised from EUR 13.50 to EUR 15.80.
  • Orange: Deutsche Bank maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from EUR 16.50 to EUR 18.50.
  • L'oréal: Berenberg maintains its hold recommendation and raises the target price from USD 86.30 to USD 88.30.
  • Moncler S.p.a.: Berenberg maintains its hold recommendation and raises the target price from EUR 55 to EUR 57.
  • Essilorluxottica: BNP Paribas maintains its outperform recommendation and reduces the target price from EUR 365 to EUR 340.