G-7 Ready to Tap Oil Reserves if Needed -- -2-

U.S. Natural Gas Futures Make Modest Advance -- Market Talk

1056 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are little higher as the Middle East conflict affects global LNG supply, while domestic demand eases with the winter season drawing to a close. While the 132 Bcf storage draw for the last week of February widened the deficit over the five-year average, "the window for additional meaningful withdrawals appears limited, and the seasonal storage low is expected to form near current levels as the market approaches the start of injection season," Andy Huenefeld of Pinebrook Energy Advisors says in a note. Some late-season cold in the north could support demand, but "the broader supply outlook remains comfortable." Nymex natural gas is up 1.6% at $3.236/mmBtu.([e-mail])

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Oil Surge Lifts Canadian Energy Sector While Broader Market Sinks -- Market Talk

1050 ET - Canadian energy stocks lead the market Monday as a blocked Strait of Hormuz sends oil prices surging past $100 a barrel, lifting producers even as broader sentiment soured. The war in the Middle East intensified over the weekend, freezing one of the world's most critical shipping corridors and driving investors toward oil names. The rest of the Canadian market was broadly weaker, with major commodity miners slumping alongside global risk assets, while airlines such as Air Canada and Transat fall on fears that higher fuel costs will squeeze margins. Business-jet maker Bombardier and air-cargo company Cargojet were also notable decliners as geopolitical tensions and rising energy prices ripple through the market. ([e-mail])

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Fund Traders Grow Long Positions in Grains -- Market Talk

1024 ET - Friday's Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC showed that traders piled into grain futures for the week ended March 3, growing the net long position held in these grains by traders. Corn showed the most dramatic move for the week, with traders adding over 24,000 long contracts while reducing their short positions by nearly 43,000 contracts. Soybean futures added nearly 22,000 long contracts for the week. This report covers the early reaction to the onset of the U.S.-Iran conflict, with analysts saying that they expect to see the trend of growing long positions to continue in the coming weeks. CBOT grain futures are mixed Monday, with corn up 0.5%, soybeans up 0.7%, and wheat down 0.3%. ([e-mail])

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Qatari LNG Outage Erases Expected Global Surplus -- Market Talk

0948 ET - The 3-4 week loss of Qatari LNG supply resulting from the Middle East conflict largely erodes the 6 million to 8 million metric ton global surplus that Morgan Stanley had expected for 2026, analysts at the firm say in a note. If the outage extends beyond a month, it would push the market into deficit, although the post-2026 impact is likely limited. Without de-escalation or a clear path to resuming Qatari output over the next week or two, benchmark Asian prices could rise to $25-$30/mmBtu or more, while a near-term resolution could bring them back $14-$16/mmBtu. "Provided any outage does not extend much beyond a month, prices should normalize fairly quickly over the coming quarters," Morgan Stanley adds. ([e-mail])

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Middle East Oil Shut-Ins Raise Risk of Lasting Supply Losses

1047 GMT - Prolonged oil production shut?ins in the Middle East raise the risk of partial or permanent production losses due to reservoir, well, facility, and logistical constraints, according to Societe Generale. "Time is critical: the longer disruptions persist, the greater the likelihood that what initially appear to be temporary outages evolve into more durable supply losses," Michael Haigh and Ben Hoff say. Risks start increasing after about two weeks offline and intensify beyond a month, with capacity typically returning to only 80%-95% after outages of several months, according to the bank. If more producers beyond Iraq and Kuwait curtail output, quickly restoring pre?crisis supply would become increasingly difficult.([e-mail])

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Oil, Gas Expected to Trade Around Current Price Levels Through March

1016 GMT - Oil and gas prices are likely to trade around current levels through March as supply disruptions evolve and some producers begin shutting in output, Julius Baer analyst Norbert Ruecker says in a note. He projects that up to 75% of Middle Eastern oil flows relying on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could face temporary shut-ins next week, though Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq have pipelines that bypass the Strait. Temporary shut-ins may reduce, but not eliminate, the oil market's surplus this year. Stagnating demand and rising production, particularly in South America, should keep supplies up, he adds. However, rising road fuel prices, particularly in the U.S., are worth watching. If the Trump administration were to impose restrictions on petroleum exports, this would trigger a sharper and longer oil price spike. ([e-mail])

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Asian LNG Restocking Expected to Slow as Hormuz Disruptions Bite -- Market Talk

1015 GMT - LNG restocking in Northeast Asia, which normally ramps up in March and April ahead of summer demand, is expected to slow due to supply disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz. "We expect China, South Korea and Japan to draw more heavily on existing stocks through March-April, with inventories rebuilding more gradually than usual," analysts at Kpler say. Larger stock drawdowns could push refilling into June and July, reinforcing upward pressure on Asian spot LNG prices--especially if summer temperatures turn hotter than normal, according to the data provider. ([e-mail])

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Palm Oil Rises Sharply, Following Crude Prices -- Market Talk

1009 GMT - Palm oil ended sharply higher in Asia. Prices are likely to continue rising due to higher crude oil prices, Raghavendra Divekar of Nomura says in a note. Factors driving prices higher are the continuing U.S.-Iran conflict, concerns about Malaysia's declining inventory levels and stronger exports, the analyst adds. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for May delivery rose 203 ringgit to 4,570 ringgit a ton. ([e-mail])

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Surge in Oil Prices May Still Be Short-Lived

0923 GMT - The surge in oil prices may still be short-lived, according to Julius Baer's Norbert Rücker in a research note. "Oil markets have entered panic mode," says the head economics and next generation research. While prices have surged to over $100/bbl, most of this move seems to "come from nervousness and sentiment, since tangible and significant fundamental shifts in the conflict are not visible over the weekend," he says. Rücker still believes the energy price spike will be intense but short-lived. "Meaningful infrastructure damage remains absent, and Iran's military threat seems to be softening," he says. Front-month WTI crude oil futures are 15% higher at $104.15/bbl; front-month Brent crude futures are 15% higher at $106.80/bbl. ([e-mail])

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Gold Falls as High Energy Prices Fuel Inflation Concerns -- Market Talk

0758 GMT - Gold prices fall 1% on fears that rising energy prices could stoke inflation and delay interest-rate cuts in the U.S. In early trading, New York futures are down 1% to $5,105.70 a troy ounce, while the U.S. dollar index rises 0.3% to 99.27, making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for overseas buyers. Meanwhile, oil prices surged above $100 a barrel as major Gulf producers begin cutting output. Still, "the current [oil] price surge reflects a supply shock, not stronger demand, raising the risk of stagflation that could ultimately force central banks to provide economic support," analysts at Saxo Bank say in a note. "In the short term, deleveraging and a stronger dollar may weigh on prices without removing the underlying reasons investors have increasingly been flocking to hard assets in recent years." ([e-mail])

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European Gas Prices Surge as Middle East War Curtails Supply -- Market Talk

0749 GMT - European natural-gas prices extend last week's staggering gains as the war in the Middle East continues to roil energy markets, severely disrupting supplies. In early trading, the benchmark Dutch TTF contract climbs 19% to 63.64 euros a megawatt-hour, after reaching 69.50 euros earlier in the session. The surge follows the forced closure of Ras Laffan in Qatar, the world's largest liquefied-natural-gas complex. Even if the conflict were to end immediately, market experts say supply disruptions could last for months. "European natural gas rose 67% last week, its biggest weekly gain since the energy crisis of 2022," ANZ analysts say. The disruption comes at a time when Western Europe is particularly vulnerable due to low gas storage levels, raising traders' concerns about the ability to replenish supplies ahead of next winter. ([e-mail])

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Higher Oil Prices Could Boost Malaysia's Plantation Sector -- Market Talk

0743 GMT - Malaysia's plantation sector could benefit from rising crude oil prices, TA Securities analyst Angeline Chin says in a note. While energy stocks have been the immediate beneficiaries, spillover effects on the plantation sector may be overlooked, she says. Stronger crude prices tend to support palm oil through improved biodiesel economics, as higher diesel prices make biodiesel blending more attractive. Rising freight costs could also enhance palm oil's competitiveness against other vegetable oils, particularly soybean oil shipments from the U.S. and South America, which face longer shipping routes to Asian markets, she reckons. TA Securities upgrades Malaysia's plantation sector to overweight from neutral, citing potential gains from stronger biodiesel demand and possible restocking by major importers like India. ([e-mail])

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Oil Surges Above $100 As Gulf Producers Cut Output

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03-09-26 1218ET