By Matt Grossman
Sales at U.S. retailers jumped in March, driven by a sharp rise in gasoline prices amid the war in Iran that left Americans paying more to fill up.
Total retail sales rose by 1.7% last month, following a 0.7% increase in February. It was the fastest one-month rise in retail sales in more than three years. Analysts polled by The Wall Street Journal were expecting a 1.5% increase. The figures are adjusted for seasonal patterns but not for rising prices.
Excluding gasoline, sales were up by 0.6% month over month. Spending at electronics and appliance stores and at building-material suppliers advanced, while sales at clothing stores were flat.
The gasoline-heavy sales increase invoked a key question economists have weighed as tensions in the Middle East continue.
The conflict's most immediate effect has been to raise global energy prices, with the cost of gasoline in the U.S. up by about 28% versus a year ago, according to AAA. Much about the war's broader economic impact will depend on whether Americans are flush enough to continue buying as much as they did before those prices increased - raising the risk that broader inflation could result - or whether tighter budgets will lead consumers to cut back, which could slow the economy.
Analysts parsing the numbers saw more evidence in Tuesday's report that consumers aren't yet tapped out. The retail-sales categories that feed into the measurement of gross domestic product marked a solid increase, a good sign for broader consumer-spending patterns in early 2026.
A more comprehensive look at the economy's health is on the way next week, when the Commerce Department will release its earliest estimate of economic growth in the three months through March. Initial estimates based on economic data already released mostly anticipate growth has accelerated from the 0.5% annualized rate seen in the last three months of 2025.
Write to Matt Grossman at matt.grossman@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
04-21-26 0909ET
