Hormuz Faces Slow Reopening as Shippers Battle -2-

0843 GMT - Energy flows are expected to return to around 80% of pre-disruption levels by the end of the third quarter, says Neil Shearing from Capital Economics. "It is likely that it will take some time for oil flows through the Strait to return to prewar levels," the chief economist says. "Even if ships now have safe passage, tankers are in the wrong place, oil production/refining facilities need to get up to full capacity, and questions over the cost and availability of insurance for ships traversing the Strait will remain." Natural-gas flows instead are likely to recover more slowly as Iranian strikes against Qatari facilities have taken about 17% of output offline. ([e-mail])

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Oil Prices at Crossroads as Supply Recovery Meets Demand Shifts, Barclays Says -- Market Talk

0805 GMT - Oil markets face three possible paths as geopolitical risks ease after the U.S. and Iran reached a deal, according to Barclays. In a bullish scenario, the normalization of trade flows through Hormuz could drive a rebound in consumption and trigger restocking, while logistical bottlenecks delay full supply recovery, pushing oil higher. A second, more balanced outcome sees prices stabilizing after an initial drop as markets adjust to expectations of rising supply and a lower risk premium, analysts at the bank say. Iranian exports would resume only gradually, helping anchor prices above preconflict levels. In a more bearish case, crude prices continue to fall as traders look ahead to additional barrels from Iran and increased output from Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. Even if physical volumes ramp up slowly, expectations on future supply alone would push crude lower, Barclays says. ([e-mail])

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European Airlines Surge as Oil Prices Fall on Iran Peace Deal -- Market Talk

0739 GMT - Shares in European airlines rose after news of a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran brought the price of oil down. Brent price fell 4.7% to $83.25 a barrel, its lowest since March. "This is good news for inflation, which should start tumbling monthly from June, and it could ease concerns about price pressures as we lead up to some major central bank action this week," XTB analyst Kathleen Brooks says in a note. The agreement foresees a phased lifting of U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports as well as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, something European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said should happen immediately. Shares in Air France-KLM rose 12%, with Wizz Air up 8.8%, Jet2 up 4% and IAG up 3.7%. ([e-mail])

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

06-15-26 1122ET