Warmer weather to speed up spring planting


WINNIPEG, Manitoba--Of all the things to look at as to determine canola prices are heading over the coming weeks, the July-November spread is the most important one, said Tony Tryhuk, director of futures trading for RBC Dominion Securities in Winnipeg.

"You should always look at the spreads between July and November as indication as to how worrisome the ending stocks situation is going to be at the end of July," Tryhuk said.

He said there was a significant turnaround in that particular spread, which points to a large carryout for 2025-26 canola. In March, the July-Nov was C$20 over but now it's C$11.50 under. He said that "$31 drag . . . shows no signs of relenting."

"If farmers think life is good and demand is robust, stocks are going to tighten up, all you have to do is look at that July-Nov spread and it will tell you a different story," Tryhuk emphasized.

He said there was much more uncertainty in the canola market in March. Today, exports are behind last year's pace in trying to sell a record canola harvest.

As of May 17, canola exports reached 6.94 million tons compared to 8.19 million the year before, the Canadian Grain Commission reported.

Last week, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada projected canola ending stocks for 2025-26 at 2.72 million tons, up from 1.6 million in 2024-25. The carryover for 2026-27 was projected to pull back to 1.32 million tons.

Tryhuk added that pace of spring planting across the Canadian Prairies will speed up with the above normal temperatures for the region that will allow farmers to catch up.

"The seeding pace is going to be quite dramatic over this week and the weekend," he said.

The most recent crop reports put overall spring planting in Manitoba at 55% finished, with Saskatchewan at 29% done and Alberta at 53% complete.

With resistance in the November canola contract up to C$770 per ton, Tryhuk can't see anything that would push canola above that, except for "threatening weather" that would severely damage the crop.


Source: Commodity News Service Canada, news@marketsfarm.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

05-27-26 1656ET