IEA Expects Oil Supply to Rebound After U.S. Winter Storm Slashed Output -- Commodities Roundup

MARKET MOVEMENTS:

--Brent crude oil falls 0.4% to $69.12 a barrel.

--European benchmark gas is up 1.5% to 32.65 euros a megawatt hour.

--Gold futures are down 0.5% to $5,074.80 a troy ounce.

--LME three-month copper futures are down 0.1% to $13,226 a metric ton.

TOP STORY:

IEA Expects Oil Supply to Rebound After U.S. Winter Storm Slashed Output

The International Energy Agency expects global oil supply to rebound in the coming months after plunging in January due to a severe winter storm in the U.S. and export constraints that curtailed flows from Kazakhstan, Russia and Venezuela.

The Paris-based organization-which represents major oil-consuming nations-said supply fell 1.2 million barrels a day last month as frigid temperatures, heavy snow, and ice storms forced shutdowns of oil fields and infrastructure, shaving roughly 860,000 barrels a day in the U.S. and 220,000 barrels a day in Canada.

As a result, global supply is now projected to grow by 2.4 million barrels a day this year--from 2.5 million barrels a day previously and compared with last year's 3.1 million barrels a day--with growth evenly split between OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ producers.

OTHER STORIES:

A Nuclear-Power Startup Says It Can Rouse the Slow-Moving Industry

A nuclear-power startup said it has found a workaround for the industry's twin stumbling blocks: the expense and time it takes to build reactors.

Project developer Alva Energy said it could add 10 gigawatts of nuclear energy to the U.S. power grid-the equivalent of nine or 10 large reactors-in the near term by boosting output at dozens of existing nuclear plants.

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PG&E Posts Lower Profit, Tightens Adj EPS View for Year

PG&E's fourth-quarter net income fell slightly but the California power producer boosted the lower end of its projection for 2026 adjusted earnings amid rising demand from artificial-intelligence related data centers.

The Oakland, Calif., utility posted earnings of $642 million, or 29 cents a share, down from $647 million, or 30 cents a share, a year earlier.

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Origin Energy Sees Opportunity for Data Centers by Its Power Plants

SYDNEY- Origin Energy built a gas-export business from the ground up just as the world was seeking cleaner-burning fuels rather than crude oil and coal. Now, it's assessing opportunities to ride the rapid growth of a new industry: the data centers that house infrastructure powering the AI boom.

Frank Calabria, Origin's chief executive, said the Australian company would initially benefit from being a supplier of energy to data centers that he expects will drive growth in power demand in future.

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U.S. Energy Secretary Talks Oil Revival-and Democracy-in Venezuela Visit

CARACAS, Venezuela-Energy Secretary Chris Wright said "enormous progress" is being made with Venezuela's regime in the transformation of its decrepit oil industry, but that the objective is an end to sanctions and a transition toward democracy.

"Boy, if things go in a positive direction, that's the goal," Wright told a small group of reporters after meeting with Venezuela's interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, on Wednesday. "That's the goal is to have a representative government and free trade and free commerce."

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Sanctions, Ship Seizures and Low Prices Squeeze Russia's Oil Industry

Dozens of tankers filled with Russian oil are floating at sea without buyers. Western powers are seizing the aging ships the country relies upon. Buyers of Russian oil are demanding the steepest discount to global oil prices since the early months of the war in Ukraine.

It all spells crunchtime from Moscow's most important economic engine.

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South32 Has No Plans to Supply U.S. Critical Minerals Stockpile

South32, an Australian metals producer building a new mine in Arizona, doesn't expect to supply critical minerals to the Trump administration's proposed $12 billion stockpile, its chief executive officer said.

Graham Kerr said he anticipates the government-led stockpile--announced earlier this month and called Project Vault--will prioritize metals that have opaque markets and need price support to underpin new projects.

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Exelon Logs Lower 4Q Profit, Revenue

Exelon's fourth-quarter profit and revenue fell, as the company faced higher taxes and expenses.

The Chicago-based utility operator on Thursday posted a profit of $593 million, compared with $647 million a year earlier. Quarterly earnings came in at 58 cents a share.

MARKET TALKS:

Base Metals Benefit From Improved Risk Appetite -- Market Talk

1250 GMT - Base metals edge higher despite a firmer U.S. dollar as risk appetite improved among global investors, according to market watchers. Copper futures on the London Metal Exchange rise 0.1% to $13,251 a metric ton, while aluminum is up 1.3% to $3,157 a ton. Meanwhile, nickel prices closed above $18,000 a ton in the previous session after Indonesia--the world's largest nickel producer--ordered a sharp cut in production at a key mine, before easing back to $17,690 a ton. Overall, prices are reacting to short-term trading moves, with investors' bets driving swings more than underlying fundamentals, analysts at Sucden Financial say. ([e-mail])

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Thyssenkrupp Hit by Weak Cash Flow -- Market Talk

1057 GMT - Thyssenkrupp's weak cash flow offsets better-than-expected adjusted EBIT, Citi analysts write. Despite the beat, the German industrial company posted a net loss of 353 million euros following restructuring costs and impairments, they write. Thyssenkrupp was hit by a larger-than-expected cash outflow that dragged its net cash position to 3.2 billion euros at Dec. 31from 4.9 billion euros at the end of September, they note. Shares fall 2.3% to 11.99 euros.([e-mail])

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Russian, Iranian Oil Buyers Reaching for Western Supplies, Vitol CEO Says -- Market Talk

1052 GMT - Buyers of Russian and Iranian oil are reaching for Western supplies as a result of geopolitical pressures, says Vitol's Chief Executive Russell Hardy. "Geopolitics is definitely putting pressure on the supply side," he says at the International Energy Week in London. A positive supply outlook is emerging from Venezuela, where recent U.S. licensing has paved the way for American companies to help boost production and exports. In contrast, Russian oil is finding fewer buyers due to Western sanctions and Iranian oil exports are constrained by geopolitical tensions and restrictions. "The traditional buyers of those two supply sources are reaching for more Western supply sources or Saudi supply sources, which is in turn tightening the real market." ([e-mail])

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Palm Oil Falls on Softer Rival Oil, Demand Concerns -- Market Talk

1024 GMT - Palm oil prices fell. Overnight softness in rival soy oil and continued concerns over demand in the coming weeks likely weighed on sentiment, Kenanga Futures writes in a note. However, the potential for bargain-hunting and expectations for easing production might cushion further downside, it adds. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for April delivery fell 24 ringgit to 4,037 ringgit a ton. ([e-mail])

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Thyssenkrupp Gets Boost from Cost-Restructuring Gains in Steel Unit -- Market Talk

1015 GMT - Thyssenkrupp's first-quarter adjusted earnings beat expectations due to cost reductions and efficiency gains in its steel unit, Jefferies analysts Tommaso Castello and Cole Hathorn write. Group adjusted EBIT comes in 9% ahead of expectations at 211 million euros as its steel unit benefits from restructuring efforts, they write. The beat isn't driven by a market recovery, they say. Shares fall 0.45% to 12.22 euros.([e-mail])

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Gold Eases After U.S. Data Tempers Fed Rate-Cut Bets -- Market Talk

0848 GMT - Gold prices ease in early trading, with New York futures holding below $5,100 as stronger-than-expected U.S. payroll data and a drop in unemployment reduced expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts. "The renewed focus on incoming economic data suggests a degree of normalisation following the recent volatility spike, while the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday in China may further dampen risk appetite and liquidity," analysts at Saxo Bank say. Gold futures fall 0.3% to $5,082.50 a troy ounce, while silver is down 0.9% to $83.16 an ounce. The U.S. dollar index is flat at 96.88. ([e-mail])

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Oil Rises on U.S.-Iran Tensions Despite Crude Build -- Market Talk

0837 GMT - Oil prices rise in early trading as tensions between the U.S. and Iran keep markets on edge. Brent crude is up 0.3% to $69.63 a barrel, while WTI gains 0.4% to $64.30 a barrel after the Pentagon told a second aircraft carrier strike group to prepare to deploy to the Middle East. Meanwhile, the latest EIA report showed U.S. crude oil stocks rose by a staggering 8.5 million barrels last week as production recovered from winter storm disruptions and imports rose. "While crude has posted gains in nearly every week this year due to recurring geopolitical risks, data showed US inventories surged to the highest level since June, reinforcing expectations of ample supply," says Soojin Kim from MUFG. ([e-mail])

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Zijin Mining's Dividend Payout Ratio Likely to Rise -- Market Talk

0721 GMT - Zijin Mining's dividend payout ratio is likely to rise gradually to 40% starting in 2025, say Citi analysts led by Jack Shang in a note. The Chinese miner's earnings are also likely to climb, as its gold sales volume as well as gold and lithium prices are expected to rise, they say. Citi raises its 2025, 2026 and 2027 earnings estimates by 1.0%, 29% and 12%, respectively, to factor in the company's latest guidance, higher metal-price projections and potentially higher dividend payout ratio. The bank also lifts its target price on Zijin Mining's H shares to HK$51.80 from HK$39.00, and on its A shares to CNY46.60 from CNY35.50. Its H shares add 2.7% to HK$44.69, while its A shares closed 0.7% higher at CNY39.75. ([e-mail])

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02-12-26 0810ET