IEA Forecasts Smaller Oil Surplus as OPEC+ Output Declines -- Commodities Roundup

MARKET MOVEMENTS:

-- Brent crude oil is down 1.8% to $61.10 a barrel.

-- European benchmark gas is up 0.5% to 26.73 euros a megawatt-hour.

-- Gold futures are up 0.7% to $4,252.60 a troy ounce.

-- LME three-month copper futures are up 2% to $11,796 a metric ton.

TOP STORY:

IEA Forecasts Smaller Oil Surplus as OPEC+ Output Declines

The oil market's projected surplus has narrowed due to lower OPEC+ production, but a large supply overhang continues to cloud the outlook, the International Energy Agency said in its closely watched monthly report.

The Paris-based organization, which represents major oil-consuming nations, lowered its forecast for global oil supply growth to 3 million barrels a day this year and 2.4 million the next, from earlier projections of 3.1 million and 2.5 million barrels a day.

Last month, supply plunged 1.5 million barrels a day from September's record high, with OPEC+ output dragged down by unexpected outages in Kuwait and Kazakhstan and sanctions against Russia and Venezuela curbing buyer interest.

OTHER STORIES:

OPEC Holds Oil-Demand View Steady But Expects Higher Supply From Rivals

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries left its oil-demand outlook unchanged as it prepares to pause output hikes in early 2026, but modestly raised its forecast for this year's supply growth from rival producers.

The Vienna-based cartel expects demand to grow by 1.3 million barrels a day this year and 1.38 million barrels a day the next, supported by expectations of steady economic growth.

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Naturgy Shares Drop After BlackRock Offloads Part of Stake

Shares in Spanish energy group Naturgy sank after major investor BlackRock sold off part of its stake in the company.

BlackRock's Global Infrastructure Partners sold a 1.7 billion-euro ($1.99 billion) stake in Naturgy, according to a regulatory filing. The fund is one of the largest shareholders in Naturgy, according to FactSet data.

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China's AI Power Play: Cheap Electricity From World's Biggest Grid

ULANQAB, China-The U.S. invented the most powerful artificial-intelligence models and controls access to the most advanced computer chips, but China has an ace to play in the global AI contest.

China now has the biggest power grid the world has ever seen. Between 2010 and 2024, its power production increased by more than the rest of the world combined. Last year, China generated more than twice as much electricity as the U.S. Some Chinese data centers are now paying less than half what American ones pay for electricity.

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U.S. Seizes Oil Tanker Off Venezuela in Escalation of Pressure on Maduro Regime

The U.S. seized an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela, President Trump said Wednesday, marking a major escalation in the administration's pressure campaign against the country's leader, Nicolás Maduro.

The move came just hours after Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado left the country on a boat, an escape that potentially gave the Trump administration an opening to take more aggressive action against the Maduro regime.

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Repsol Sells Stake in U.S. Solar Project to Stonepeak for $252.5 Million

Repsol said it would sell a $252.5 million stake in its Outpost solar project to investment firm Stonepeak.

The sale of a 43.8% stake to Stonepeak gives Repsol's Outpost solar project a total value of around $775 million, the company said Thursday.

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Suncor Energy Sees Production Increases as Part of 2026 Plan

Suncor Energy has laid out its production growth targets as part of its 2026 plans, which also include an increase in share buybacks.

The Canadian energy company on Thursday said it expects production to reach 840,000 to 870,000 barrels of oil a day in 2026, representing growth of more than 100,000 barrels a day over its 2023 production and exceeding targets outlined at the 2024 Investor Day.

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Cenovus Aims for Output Increases as Part of 2026 Plan

Cenovus Energy plans to ramp up production across its portfolio, part of its new capital plan for 2026.

The Canadian energy company on Thursday said it has earmarked between 5 billion Canadian dollars (US$3.62 billion) and C$5.3 billion to put toward its new 2026 budget plan.

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Drax Raises Earnings Guidance on Strong Performance

Drax Group raised its earnings guidance for the year, driven by strong performance in the second half.

The U.K. power-generation company on Thursday said it expects adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization to be at the top end of consensus estimates. Company-compiled consensus for the metric stands at 902 million pounds ($1.21 billion) and within a 892 million to 909 million pounds range.

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China's AI Power Play: Cheap Electricity From World's Biggest Grid

ULANQAB, China-The U.S. invented the most powerful artificial-intelligence models and controls access to the most advanced computer chips, but China has an ace to play in the global AI contest.

China now has the biggest power grid the world has ever seen. Between 2010 and 2024, its power production increased by more than the rest of the world combined. Last year, China generated more than twice as much electricity as the U.S. Some Chinese data centers are now paying less than half what American ones pay for electricity.

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GoGold Logs Higher 4Q Rev as Silver Prices, Sales Rise

GoGold Resources logged higher revenue in its latest quarter thanks to a boost from greater sales of silver at higher prices.

The Canadian miner said Thursday that revenue rose to $18.1 million for the three months ended Sept. 30, up from $10.4 million a year earlier.

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Thyssenkrupp Shutters Electrical Steel Plants, Warns of Potential Job Losses

Thyssenkrupp said it would shutter some electrical steel plants and cut production due to cheap imports flowing into Europe.

The German industrial company said Thursday that up to 1,200 jobs in Germany and France are at risk if greater protections for European produced steel aren't put in place.

MARKET TALKS:

U.S. Natural Gas Resumes Slide Ahead of Storage Data -- Market Talk

0908 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are back in the red after yesterday's attempt to stem the retreat from last week's gains. The market remains focused on the weather outlook and watching for weekly storage data due at 10:30 a.m. ET. The EIA is expected to report a 173 Bcf decline in inventories in the first major storage withdrawal of the season. That would reduce the surplus supply over the five-year average to 107 Bcf from 191 Bcf the week before. Nymex natural gas is off 3.3% at $4.442/mmBtu.([e-mail])

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Oil Futures Move Lower on Supply-Demand Concerns -- Market Talk

0906 ET - Oil futures are lower in early U.S. trade as market expectations of oversupply continue to weigh. A small spike up late yesterday after the U.S. seized a sanctioned tanker off the coast of Venezuela was short-lived. The IEA reduced its expected oil surplus for next year, cutting its supply outlook and raising demand. OPEC left its demand forecast intact but nudged up its 2025 supply growth estimate from non-OPEC producers. "Most analysts agree the market will be oversupplied next year, but there is considerable uncertainty over the scale of that surplus, and some of the excess barrels are not accessible to many buyers due to sanctions," Callum Macpherson of Investec says in a note. WTI is off1.3% at $57.71 a barrel and Brent is down 1.2% at $61.45. ([e-mail])

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U.S. AI Developers Face Higher Electricity Costs Than Chinese Peers -- Market Talk

1115 GMT - AI companies in the U.S. face competition from their Chinese peers in terms of electricity costs, CIO Benjamin Melman says at the Edmond de Rothschild AM 2026 investment outlook conference. U.S. electricity production isn't sufficient to meet demand from AI companies and the electricity price is relatively high compared to China, Melman says. "There is a fierce competition problem in terms of electricity costs in the U.S. which is going to raise the cost of the AI," he says. ([e-mail])

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Copper Rises on Fed Rate Cut, Supply Concerns -- Market Talk

0915 GMT - Copper prices rise after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates and as traders remain concerned over signs of tightness in the physical market. In early trading, futures on the London Metal Exchange are up 0.5% to $11,616 a metric ton, while the U.S. dollar index is down 0.2% to 98.67. A lower-interest-rate environment typically boosts economic activity and demand, and a weaker dollar makes commodities cheaper for overseas buyers. Meanwhile, the market is shrugging off China's weaker economic data and focusing instead on copper's long-term demand from renewables, EVs and data centers, ANZ analysts say. These rosy demand prospects clash with growing supply concerns amid a series of mine disruptions worldwide, keeping prices elevated. ([e-mail])

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Oil Falls With Focus on Ukraine Talks, U.S.-Venezuela Tensions

0857 GMT - Oil prices fall as investors monitor progress to end the war in Ukraine and rising tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela. Brent crude and WTI are both down 1.2% to $61.46 a barrel and $57.73 a barrel, respectively, after settling higher in the previous session when the U.S. seized an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela. The incident adds to geopolitical risks, even as fundamentals remain bearish, with global supply from OPEC+ and the Americas expected to outpace demand growth. Meanwhile, President Trump dialed up pressure on Ukraine to quickly accept a U.S.-drafted peace plan-a development that could lead to the lifting of sanctions on Russia and bring additional barrels back onto the market. ([e-mail])

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Gold Rises After Fed Cuts Rates; Silver Hits Record -- Market Talk

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12-11-25 1006ET