Bitcoin: meteoric rise and brutal fall
The bitcoin's 2025 Vintage will go down in history for its extreme volatility. The cryptocurrency started the year at full throttle, buoyed by renewed enthusiasm from traditional investors and the arrival at the White House of an openly pro-crypto president, Donald Trump.
First came the most surreal episode of the year: Donald Trump and Melania Trump launched their own memecoins, $TRUMP and $MELANIA, billed by their promoters as an "expression of support" rather than an investment - a move that immediately triggered conflict-of-interest warnings (since the White House also, de facto, shapes the sector's regulatory environment). A sign of the times: in 2025, crypto is no longer just a market - it is also a narrative, viral, political tool.
Then came the first real reality check: April. Cryptos, like stocks, stumbled when Donald Trump unveiled his tariff announcements. Bitcoin slid with the Nasdaq, proof that in 2025 it no longer behaved like an isolated planet, but like a risk-on asset plugged into the same socket as the markets. This year, bitcoin reacted to the same catalysts as the NASDAQ or the S&P 500 - monetary policy, enthusiasm (and possible bubble) around AI, and of course geopolitical twists.
The data confirms this trend: the one-year average correlation between BTC and the S&P 500 index reached 0.5 (clearly positive), versus just 0.2 to 0.3 in previous years. In short, bitcoin behaved like a risky asset amongst others, for now losing its fantasized status as the "new digital gold."
Summer rekindled BTC's spark. Hopes of rate cuts resurfaced, the market breathed, and speculation resumed. Then autumn delivered the climax: in early October, bitcoin hit a record of above $126,000. The kind of number that silences skeptics... just long enough for euphoria to turn fragile. The institutional machine had a lot to do with it. Even as the price started to turn, Spot Bitcoin ETFs kept acting as a massive entry point for traditional investors. And conversely, when the correction bit, the move was visible in real time: in November, IBIT (BlackRock) even saw a record daily outflow in a single session, proof that "regulated finance" now also amplifies deleveraging phases.
In this new landscape, IBIT is not just another ETF: in 2025, Bloomberg pointed out that BlackRock's Spot Bitcoin ETF became the firm's most lucrative product (in fee revenue), ahead of the rest of its lineup - a very concrete way of saying bitcoin has entered the business model of asset-management giants.
On October 10, another shock: Trump announced higher tariffs on China and brandished the threat of export controls on critical software. The market emptied in a flash: over $19bn of leveraged positions were liquidated - a historic record for the crypto ecosystem. Bitcoin plunged to around $104,783 during the October 10-11 episode.
Since then, the rebound has sputtered. In mid-November, BTC briefly dipped below $90,000, erasing its gains for the year and leaving a mark: in 2025, confidence can "erode at a remarkable speed," market participants noted.
As Christmas approaches, the scorecard is paradoxical: a record high, then a descent. In early December, bitcoin hovered around $89,000, more than 30% below its October peak, and is on track to end the year down (about -5%), which would be its first negative annual performance since 2022. A reversal of fortune few analysts had anticipated: as late as end-October, some maximalists like Michael Saylor (boss of the listed company holding the most bitcoins in the world) were betting on a 150,000 USD price before January.
Finally, while bitcoin was on a rollercoaster, stablecoins took the helm. Their market cap hit a record around $251.7bn (+22% in 2025), driven by usage (trading, transfers, payments) and by a major political shift in the United States with progress on a dedicated legislative framework.
Gold, the ultimate haven in times of crisis
At the exact opposite end of the financial spectrum, in 2025 gold enjoyed its most resounding consecration in over four decades. From the first months of the year, the precious metal began a steady ascent, breaking through all its historic ceilings one by one. On March 18, it crossed the $3,000-per-ounce threshold for the very first time, boosted by a series of negative global headlines. That day, the breakdown of a fragile ceasefire in the Middle East - with the resumption of airstrikes in Gaza - reignited fears of a regional conflagration. At the same time, the war-of-words escalation between Washington and Beijing over trade raised fears of a US recession, which significantly weakened the dollar. These events forced investors to reassess their risks: in search of havens for their capital, they turned en masse away from the greenback and equities in favor of gold and other precious metals.
The summer and autumn of 2025 only reinforced this bullish momentum in gold, each new global twist adding fuel to the rise. With bond markets jittery (long-term yields rising, risk premia widening) and central banks adopting a more accommodative tone, the monetary backdrop again favored safe but non-yielding assets like gold. In the United States, the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate four times over the year, a reversal after the aggressive hiking cycle of 2022-2023. This monetary easing - combined with dollar erosion - mechanically increased gold's appeal to international investors.
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Added to this were persistent geopolitical tensions (from the threat of a Venezuelan oil blockade announced by Trump in December to smoldering conflicts in Eastern Europe or the Middle East) and the steady appetite of emerging-market central banks to diversify their reserves. Result: the gold price soared by nearly 70% in 2025, its strongest annual gain since 1979.
The mythical $4,000 threshold was smashed in the fall, and at year-end gold is flirting with $4,500 per ounce. The shockwave is broad: silver more than doubled (+141%) to reach $70 per ounce, and even platinum and palladium, industrial metals, returned to levels not seen in years. All indicators of a genuine rush for tangible assets, recalling in some ways the situation of the late-1970s gold fever when runaway inflation and East-West tensions propelled the yellow metal to records (back then, +135% in 1979).
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Experts point to several structural factors behind 2025's gold rush. On one hand, major emerging countries such as China, India and Russia have continued their de-dollarization strategy launched after the 2008 financial crisis, accumulating gold to reduce dependence on the US dollar in foreign-exchange reserves. On the other, access to gold investing has improved: gold-backed ETFs recorded hefty inflows this year, with many savers seeing these funds as a simple way to hedge against market turmoil.
Finally, gold has benefited from a non-trivial psychological bandwagon effect: each threshold crossed attracted new buyers fearing they would "miss the train," which further fueled the rise. Some analysts, however, warn that the gold market is not immune to short-term corrections, especially with thin holiday liquidity. However, most remain confident about the fundamental trend: for many, the $5,000-per-ounce mark is now in sight in 2026, barring a surprise easing of global risks.
Political factors and monetary challenges
Behind the gold/bitcoin duel lie the political and monetary choices that set the pace in 2025. The shadow of Donald Trump indeed looms over a large part of these financial events. Returning to the presidency in January, Trump quickly imprinted the markets with his unpredictable, assertive style. His professed friendliness toward cryptocurrencies - in contrast with the previous administration's wariness - initially galvanized the sector: announcements of regulatory relief for bitcoin miners in the US or the presidential pardon granted to Binance founder Changpeng Zhao in a sanctions case were greeted by instant jumps in BTC prices.
Some even saw Trump's tongue-in-cheek launch of a "memecoin" as political validation of the crypto universe, feeding the spring speculation. But conversely, the President did not hesitate to weaponize the economy in his geopolitical tussles, even at the cost of strong market shocks. His tariff timetable - seen as electoral - wrong-footed investors twice, in April and then October, revealing the market's dependence on executive decisions. This blend of unguarded support (perhaps fostering a crypto bubble) and protectionist warning shots (triggering panics) helped heighten volatility in bitcoin and on Wall Street. In addition, Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve weighed on the monetary climate: public criticism of the Fed chair, thunderous announcements of budget spending ("giant infrastructure plan") stoking inflation expectations... All elements that complicated the central bank's task and blurred investors' visibility on the rate path.
Monetary policy was, precisely, the other big structuring factor of the year. Faced with slowing inflation and financial strains (China's commercial real-estate crisis, fragilities at some US regional banks), the Fed executed a 180-degree turn, opting for four quarter-point cuts between May and December. This pivot, although largely anticipated by the market, had mixed effects. It supported the continuation of the stock rally in the first half of the year, feeding the idea of a "soft landing" for the US economy. However, it also sent a warning signal about the solidity of future growth, which strengthened the appeal of safe havens.
The crypto market, meanwhile, oscillated with Fed expectations: the prospect of more accommodative monetary support often coincided with bitcoin rebounds, and conversely, each slightly more hawkish (tighter) Fed speech weighed on prices. Towards the year-end, attention turned to the identity of the next Fed chair that Trump is to nominate in early 2026. Rumors of appointing a figure favorable to low rates were one of the catalysts for gold's final December surge, with traders seeing it as a sign of a more lenient monetary policy (even one swayed by political wishes). This incursion of politics into monetary affairs worries as much as it reassures some investors: if an ultra-accommodative turn is in the cards, it could extend the party in risky asset markets... while raising fears, in time, of an inflationary flare-up that would further bolster gold's appeal. The delicate balance between supporting growth and maintaining anti-inflation credibility will thus be one of 2026's big themes, in a context where the slightest decision from Washington could shake both the crypto sphere and precious-metals markets.
Outlook: toward a new balance of values?
With 2026 almost here, the contrast between triumphant gold and a wavering bitcoin raises the question of a new financial balance. Some see proof that, despite all the fervor around "assets of the future," economic fundamentals ultimately reassert themselves. Gold, a millennia-old asset with no yield but no default risk, reminded everyone it remains the ultimate shield in times of uncertainty. Its historic 2025 rally, fueled by tangible factors (conflicts, anticipated inflation, easy monetary policy), could continue if those uncertainties persist. Conversely, bitcoin has yet to break free from its status as a speculative vehicle: embraced during bouts of optimism, it is still swept up in panic selling waves much like an overvalued tech stock. That said, should we definitively bury the idea of "digital gold"?
Not so fast, say crypto supporters: this year's decline may be only a temporary consolidation, and the long-term prospects - growing adoption, increased BTC scarcity after the halving, innovations in decentralized finance - remain intact. Market history also shows that alternative assets can take time to find their footing. Gold itself went through a near 20-year desert crossing after 1980 before resuming a durable uptrend in the 2000s. Likewise, bitcoin has weathered several severe crashes in the past and rebounded beyond its peaks, rewarding patient "HODLers" (long-term investors). The big difference in 2025 was its interconnection with the global financial system, suggesting bitcoin's future will also depend on exogenous factors (geopolitical stability, regulation, rate direction) and not just on tech hype.
On the policymakers' side, this dual saga of bitcoin and gold in 2025 brings its share of lessons. For central banks, first, gold's surge confirms the importance of maintaining confidence in fiat money: when economic actors begin to doubt the durability of money's value (because of adventurous fiscal policies or conflicts), they flock to tangible assets. The temptation to ease monetary policy too aggressively to please markets or leaders in office could thus face the immediate penalty of a surge in gold and a weakening of the dollar.
Next, for financial regulators, this year's extreme volatility in the crypto market confirms the need for appropriate prudential oversight. Although the sector has gained in maturity since the 2017 bubble, the domino effect seen in October (chain liquidations, disruptions at certain platforms) shows that a crypto crash can generate limited but real systemic risks. Work is underway in the United States and in Europe to better integrate digital assets within the authorities' supervisory perimeter (prudential ratios for banks holding cryptos, transparency obligations for exchange operators, etc.). The year 2025 will likely serve as a reminder: without safeguards, the rise of digital finance can prove chaotic and destabilizing.
