In Record-High Yet Erratic Markets, Keep "Expecting the Unexpected"
After reaching record highs last week, European stock markets are expected to open slightly higher on Monday morning in what promises to be a relatively calm session, with Wall Street closed for "Washington's Birthday." However, this does not mean the coming days will be free from turbulence.
Published on 02/16/2026 at 02:39 am EST - Modified on 02/16/2026 at 02:37 am EST
Contact us to request a correction
Strong corporate earnings and reassuring economic indicators from the United States fueled last week's bullish rally, which has driven the Paris market higher since mid-January, allowing it to set a new all-time record above 8,437 points last Thursday.
Today's session should be quieter than in recent weeks due to the Wall Street closure for the " Presidents' Day " holiday.
Barely a month and a half into the year, global equity markets have already weathered several episodes of volatility, triggered by events such as tensions in Greenland, turmoil in precious metals, or disruptions linked to AI.
As a result, the CBOE VIX volatility index, known as the "fear index," has been on a downward trend since January 1 in the United States, a trend mirrored by its European counterpart, the VSTOXX, which tracks volatility in the Euro STOXX 50.
Despite a slightly lighter calendar, there is no guarantee that volatility will subside in the coming days.
"We are witnessing a dislocation of the markets," observes Christophe Dembik, investment strategy advisor at Pictet AM.
"Indices are near historic highs, but some sectors are experiencing unprecedented declines," the analyst notes.
"The cause: exaggerated fears about AI and a great deal of speculation," he summarizes.
In the face of erratic market reactions, PIMCO experts recently advised participants to continue to "expect the unexpected."
"Investors have benefited from a prolonged bull market in equities, largely driven by technology," the California-based asset manager recalls.
"But as artificial intelligence disrupts sectors and the economy as a whole, the volatility recently observed in equities—especially in technology-linked segments—shows just how uncertain the outlook remains," he adds.
"This is not a year to stand still, hoping volatility will fade," PIMCO warns.
Attention will once again turn to corporate earnings and economic indicators this week, with hopes they will confirm the economy remains in relatively good shape.
With tech sector results now behind us, the market will scrutinize the performance of "real economy" companies, such as U.S. retailer Walmart and Swiss food giant Nestlé, both set to report earnings this week.
A long string of economic statistics is also expected this week, starting with U.S. fourth-quarter growth figures.
Indicators scheduled in Europe, such as the ZEW or PMI, could also confirm that—despite current turbulence—the European economy is improving.
Political risk may also come to the fore and heighten market jitters, with a potential U.S. Supreme Court decision on the legality of customs tariffs, although, as happened in January, this could again be postponed until next month.


















