Inderes has reiterated its 'reduce' recommendation and target price of 615 kronor for the defense company Saab.
The analysis firm views the shortage of long-range air defense systems in Europe as potentially positive for GLSDB (Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb) and moderately positive for GlobalEye, with a possible revenue impact of around 1–2.5 billion kronor in 2026, equivalent to about 1–3 percent. However, it emphasizes that this does not alter its estimates.
The lack of air-to-air missiles is seen as strengthening the strategic case for European supply and increasing the marginal value of surveillance and command systems, even though capacity and budget constraints may dampen the short-term financial impact, according to the Finnish analysis firm.
Key catalysts going forward include Poland's decision regarding GlobalEye and Germany's defense budget for 2027, with any potential contracts likely to influence revenue expectations for 2026–2030.
SAAB AB is a world leader in the design, manufacturing and marketing of defense and security systems and equipment for military, space and civil sectors. Net sales break down by family of products and services as follows:
- electronic defense systems (33.3%): radars, sensors, submarine and terrestrial airborne surveillance systems;
- aeronautical systems (26.1%): military aircraft, combat aircraft, avionics, etc.;
- armament equipment and systems (22.5%): military equipment, missile systems, weapon systems, ammunition, armed forces identification systems, camouflage systems, etc. The group also provides security and defense solutions (combat systems, training, simulation, security and communication solutions, air and sea traffic management systems, etc.);
- naval systems (12.9%): submarines, combat ships, underwater mine detection systems, etc.;
- support services (4.2%): provision of services in the areas of systems development, integration and security, information security, communications, technical information, logistics, etc., and technological consulting in the fields of aviation, defense, telecommunications, etc.;
- other (1%).
Net sales are distributed geographically as follows: Sweden (41%), Europe (24.8%), North America (9.6%), Asia (8.4%), Latin America (7.1%), Australia (5.3%), Africa (0.3%) and other (3.5%).
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