On Wednesday morning, U.S. stock futures fell as investors woke up to the possibility that key economic reports would not arrive on schedule. If the Bureau of Labor Statistics cannot release payroll data, or if the Consumer Price Index is delayed, the foundation for that dovish outlook erodes. Markets hate uncertainty more than they hate bad news. A missing data point leaves traders imagining the worst.

Investors are already trying to substitute alternative signals: private payroll estimates from ADP, or sentiment surveys from the Institute for Supply Management. But these are imperfect proxies. The ADP was published this morning, it showed that private employment in September fell by 32,000 jobs, against expectations of a 51,000 gain. That swing of more than 80,000 positions shows hat hiring momentum is slowing more abruptly than forecasters anticipated. For investors hoping to see gradual cooling that would give the Federal Reserve confidence to cut rates without stoking fears of recession, the figure complicates the narrative. Still, the ADP report is not the data point that carries the most weight for the Fed.

Markets can usually absorb a government shutdown. History offers reassuring precedents: the S&P 500 has risen during the last six such episodes, Deutsche Bank analysts remind us. But context matters. Today's backdrop is one of stretched valuations and fragile optimism. Equities have just notched their second consecutive quarter of gains, buoyed by the expectation that the Fed will soon cut interest rates.

If past shutdowns have been shrugged off, it is because they ended quickly enough. The longer Washington stays at an impasse, the greater the chance that risk-off sentiment becomes self-fulfilling, tightening financial conditions even without Fed action.

In the meantime, individual stocks continue to leap and stumble. Nike surprised on revenue, Lithium Americas soared on a government stake, Marvell was punished by a downgrade. Pfizer shares soared after it reached an agreement with the Trump administration to cut drug prices by up to 85% and secured a three-year tariff exemption in exchange for U.S. manufacturing investment.

So far, the 2025 stock market performance remains very favorable. The usual September pitfall was even easily overcome, as shown by these figures gleaned here and there this morning:

  • S&P 500: +3.5% in September and fifth consecutive month of growth,
  • Stoxx Europe 600: +1.46% in September and 3rd consecutive month of growth,
  • Japan: +5% in September and sixth consecutive month of growth,
  • MSCI Emerging Markets: +7% in September and ninth consecutive month of growth, the best bullish streak since 2003.

I am stating the obvious when I say that the next few days will be volatile due to the disruption caused by the shutdown. This situation is exacerbated by the lull before the third-quarter results, which will begin en masse on Monday, October 13, with US banks and several iconic industrial companies. 

In other news today, and staying with statistics, the White House has canceled the appointment of conservative economist EJ Antoni to head the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). His appointment was not unanimously supported, even among Republicans, but no justification was given.

In Asia-Pacific this morning, there is clearly little concern about the temporary US budgetary constipation. Tokyo is still a little downbeat, with a decline of 0.8%. A major news agency headlines this morning that Japanese investors “have chosen to take their profits after the recent rally.” This is a sign that no one has any idea why the market is down. Australia is down 0.2%, but other markets are gaining ground. South Korea and Taiwan are up around 1%, and India is up 0.5%. European indices are bullish, with the Stoxx Europe 600 up 0.5%.

Today's economic highlights:

On today's agenda: Japan's PMI indices, followed by those of France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the United Kingdom; In Switzerland, retail sales and the manufacturing PMI will be released; In the United States, the ADP employment change, construction spending, ISM manufacturing, DOE crude oil inventories, and the manufacturing PMI are expected. See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 97,550
  • Gold: $3,8685
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $66.52 (WTI) $62.01
  • United States 10 years: 4.10%
  • BITCOIN: $116,590

In corporate news:

  • Walmart will remove synthetic dyes and over 30 other artificial ingredients from all its U.S. private-label food brands by January 2027, aligning with broader health initiatives.
  • Bristol-Myers Squibb received FDA Fast Track designation for its experimental Alzheimer's antibody BMS-986446, which targets the tau protein linked to disease progression.
  • Oklo was selected by the U.S. Department of Energy to build three advanced nuclear fuel fabrication facilities, supporting its next-gen reactor deployment.
  • BlackRock's Global Infrastructure Partners is nearing a $38 billion acquisition of utility group AES, reflecting rising power demand from AI and data centers.
  • Biocon signed a confidential settlement with Amgen, allowing it to launch biosimilars to Prolia and Xgeva in the U.S. market starting today.
  • Pfizer reached an agreement with the Trump administration to cut drug prices by up to 85% and secured a three-year tariff exemption in exchange for U.S. manufacturing investment.
  • Corteva will split into two separate publicly traded companies, one focused on seeds and the other on crop protection, with the separation expected in H2 2026.
  • IBM and AMD are partnering to provide AI infrastructure for startup Zyphra, deploying AMD Instinct GPUs on IBM Cloud to support advanced multimodal model training.
  • Baker Hughes received a contract from Bechtel Energy to supply liquefaction equipment for Sempra Infrastructure's Port Arthur LNG Phase 2 project in Texas.
  • C4 Therapeutics and Pfizer entered a clinical trial collaboration to test a combination of cemsidomide and Pfizer’s elranatamab for multiple myeloma.
  • Amazon Web Services and the NBA launched "NBA Inside the Game", an AI-powered platform delivering real-time data insights and interactive fan experiences.
  • Dutch pension fund ABP sold its stake in Caterpillar over concerns about the company's investments in conflict zones, particularly in Gaza.
  • Gaming and Leisure Properties will acquire the real estate assets of Sunland Park Racetrack & Casino in New Mexico for $183.8 million, expecting immediate accretion to earnings.
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals dosed the first patient in a Phase 3 trial for zilebesiran in cardiovascular outcomes, triggering a $300 million milestone payment from Roche.
  • Tesla increased U.S. lease prices across all models following the expiration of federal EV tax credits and showed mixed sales results across European markets, with gains in France, Denmark, Norway, and Spain but continued losses in Sweden.
  • Nike reports unexpected revenue growth, driven by strong wholesale and apparel sales.
  • BlackRock's Global Infrastructure Partners nears a $38 billion acquisition of AES.
  • Core Laboratories Inc. expands in Brazil with the acquisition of Solintec.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • At&T Inc.: Barclays downgrades to market weight from overweight with a target price of USD 30.
  • Autodesk, Inc.: HSBC upgrades to buy from hold and raises the target price from USD 343 to USD 388.
  • C.h. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.: Barclays upgrades to market weight from underweight and raises the target price from USD 95 to USD 130.
  • Carvana Co.: Jefferies upgrades to buy from hold and raises the target price from USD 385 to USD 475.
  • Doximity, Inc.: Goldman Sachs downgrades to sell from neutral with a price target raised from USD 57 to USD 64.
  • Marvell Technology Group Ltd: TD Cowen downgrades to hold from buy and reduces the target price from USD 90 to USD 85.
  • Renaissancere Holdings Ltd.: Evercore ISI upgrades to in-line from underperform with a price target raised from USD 237 to USD 244.
  • The Allstate Corporation: Evercore ISI downgrades to in-line from outperform and raises the target price from USD 230 to USD 233.
  • The Cooper Companies, Inc.: Goldman Sachs initiates coverage with a sell recommendation and a target price of USD 64.
  • United Rentals, Inc.: Baird upgrades to outperform from neutral and raises the target price from USD 888 to USD 1050.
  • Applovin Corporation: Citi maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 600 to USD 850.
  • Aptiv Plc: Daiwa Securities maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 79 to USD 100.
  • Ast Spacemobile, Inc.: Barclays maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 37 to USD 60.
  • Bill Holdings, Inc.: Keefe Bruyette & Woods maintains its market perform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 46 to USD 56.
  • Citigroup Inc.: RBC Capital maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 91 to USD 112.
  • Coty Inc.: Grupo Santander maintains its outperform recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 8 to USD 6.
  • Crh Plc: RBC Capital maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 112 to USD 152.
  • Ftai Aviation Ltd.: Barclays maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 150 to USD 195.
  • Kla Corporation: Rothschild & Co Redburn maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from USD 800 to USD 1100.
  • Lam Research Corporation: Rothschild & Co Redburn maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 115 to USD 140.
  • Robinhood Markets, Inc.: Morgan Stanley maintains its equalwt recommendation and raises the target price from USD 110 to USD 146.
  • Wynn Resorts, Limited: Goldman Sachs maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 124 to USD 150.