STORY: Japan's public broadcaster NHK projected early on Monday that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's coalition is certain to lose control of the upper house.

While Sunday's ballot does not directly determine whether Ishiba's government falls, it heaps pressure on the embattled leader who also lost control of the more powerful lower house in October...

and potentially heralds political turmoil as an August 1 tariff deadline with the United States looms.

NHK said Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party and coalition partner Komeito were certain to fall short of the 50 seats needed to secure the 248-seat upper chamber.

Half those seats were up for grabs in Sunday's vote.

The result comes on top of its worst showing in 15 years in October's lower house election, a vote which has left Ishiba's administration vulnerable to no-confidence motions and calls from within his own party for leadership change.

Speaking to NHK two hours after polls closed, Ishiba said he accepted what he called the "harsh result."

Asked whether he intended to stay on as prime minister and party leader, he said, "that's right."

Ishiba later told TV Tokyo that the tariff negotiations with the U.S. were extremely critical and that, quote, "we must never ruin these negotiations."

Opposition parties advocating for tax cuts and welfare spending have struck a chord with voters.

Rising consumer prices - particularly a jump in the cost of rice - have sowed frustration at the government's response.

The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party was set to finish second, vote counts showed.

The far-right Sanseito party, birthed on YouTube a few years ago, with its 'Japanese First' campaign and warnings about a, quote, "silent invasion" of foreigners, was set to add at least 13 seats to one elected previously.