Following a quarter-end meeting with the company, Jefferies has raised its forecasts, citing effective cost management, favorable fuel market conditions, and improving fleet revenues.

"This places us 7% ahead of our like-for-like EBITDA growth target for 2026, which ranges between 8% and 12%," the research firm stated.

"While this situation offers an opportunity for a short-term rebound in the share price, macroeconomic headwinds, increased competition, and high levels of gross debt lead us to remain cautious regarding the medium-term outlook," Jefferies added.

However, the analyst believes the mobility sector is poised for a rebound due to rising fuel prices: the firm anticipates mobility growth of approximately 15%, driven by higher prices at the pump.

"Edenred's exposure to oil prices was only 8% in 2025, which means it could contribute approximately 200 basis points to second-quarter like-for-like operating growth," the analyst noted.

For the second quarter, Jefferies expects a 2% decline in like-for-like operating revenue to €678m, which is 1% above previous forecasts.

According to the analyst, this decline will primarily stem from the performance of the B&E (-8%), Mobility (+14%), and Complementary Solutions (+8%) divisions.

For the first half of the year, Jefferies expects a 3% decline in like-for-like EBITDA to €642m, representing a 6% increase over prior estimates.

Jefferies maintains its Hold rating on the stock and has adjusted its price target to €22.4 (from €22.2).

Edenred is scheduled to publish its first-half 2026 results on July 23.