The managers note at the outset that several key interest rate announcements were made in December, with the US Federal Reserve, as expected, cutting its key rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50–3.75 percent.
"At the same time, it became clear that the board was divided, as three members dissented from the decision—two advocated for an unchanged rate, while one called for a larger cut," the managers write.
They add that interest rate forecasts still indicate two more cuts in 2026 and 2027, while the growth forecast was revised upward and the tone regarding inflation developments was more optimistic.
Meanwhile, both the Riksbank and the ECB left their key rates unchanged at 2.00 and 1.75 percent, respectively. They reiterated that they are satisfied with current rate levels and that the likelihood of adjustments in the near term is low.
"As mentioned in the previous monthly letter, we felt the market had moved a bit too quickly and had already priced in a full rate hike from the Riksbank in 2026, while for the ECB, rate cuts were still being priced in. We did not see this as entirely consistent, which has also been corrected during December."
The market is now instead pricing in a 10 percent probability of a rate hike from the ECB at the end of 2026 and a 50 percent probability of a hike from the Riksbank during the year.
Macroeconomic data came in mixed in December, with inflation figures surprising on the downside in countries including Sweden and the US. However, the managers caution that the US figure should be interpreted carefully, as it was likely affected by the government shutdown.
During the month, activity in the credit market also slowed, with the primary market particularly quiet and, aside from some reallocations ahead of the new year, the secondary market was also calm. The fund increased its holding in Boliden.
In conclusion, the managers write that the market's view of the Riksbank's rate path now appears more reasonable, although further minor adjustments cannot be ruled out. At the same time, clear differences within the board are described, and the appointment of a new board member could therefore impact the balance, but despite this, it is considered unlikely that the Riksbank will change its key rate during the first half of the year.
The fund's current annual yield stands at around 2.8 percent after fees, assuming an unchanged market environment.
| Lannebo Räntefond Kompass, % | December, 2025 |
| Fund MM, change in percent | 0.1 |
| Index MM, change in percent | 0.2 |
| Fund full year, change in percent | 2.7 |
| Index full year, change in percent | 3.2 |
