STORY: Las Vegas tour guide Michael Hillman says the city feels noticeably different on weekdays. 

"Normally, I used to walk through here and see hundreds of people, even on the regular days, Mondays, Tuesdays and Wednesdays. But now Mondays, Tuesdays and Wednesdays, small."

Las Vegas drew about 3.1 million fewer visitors in 2025 - a 7.5% drop. 

It's the sharpest decline outside the pandemic since record-keeping began in 1970, according to the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority.

While conventions are holding up and weekends may still feel like peak Vegas, the weakness is leisure: higher-income travelers keep booking, while households feeling the pinch pull back.

And in a city powered by leisure spending, that shows up in hotel pricing, flight schedules and paychecks.

Officials, analysts, workers and visitors cite a mix of political unease and high prices for the decline. 

"We're kinda calling it the 'Trump slump,' to be honest with you."

Joe Spica is a bellman at The Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas and a union shop steward.

"We've lost our international travelers. We've lost Canadians. We've lost - you name it. On top of that, the amount of people that are coming here, they're just not spending as much."

Cirium data shows U.S. carriers have about 7% fewer seats scheduled into Las Vegas for the first quarter of 2026 than a year earlier.

International visitors matter disproportionately because they stay longer and spend more, and they're pulling back too. 

Canadian carriers have cut capacity for the quarter by about 30%... 

As some Canadians have shown greater reluctance to make the trip south amid political tensions, including fallout from U.S. tariffs and immigration-related policies.

Officials and executives say Las Vegas is coming off two straight record years and is now settling into a more balanced market. 

The shift is most visible in the middle of the week, when hotels build steady volume. 

CoStar Group data shows midweek revenue per available room fell about 11% in 2025.

MGM Resorts this month said profit and revenue at its Las Vegas resorts fell in the fourth quarter of 2025, citing outsized weakness at its value-oriented properties... even as executives said trends were improving into 2026. 

Economists say the next test comes this spring as households book summer travel.

"Southern California tourism is the lifeblood for Las Vegas across the board."

Ted Pappageorge, secretary-treasurer of the Culinary Workers Union Local 226, said there are already signs those customers are staying away.

"This whole tariff question, this question of the cost of living, this militarization of the whole immigration policy, in addition to a tough stance on travel and tourism into this country, has just become a perfect storm."

With the top 10% of earners driving consumer spending, economists warn recession risks can rise if affluent, market-linked spending suddenly cools.