To take a step back, the value of this same barrel has appreciated by almost 50% in 2021, which is not to everyone's liking.
 
This meteoric rise is largely due to the tightening of the market. Global demand, which has rebounded strongly with the reopening of economies, is coming up against a moderate supply constrained by OPEC+ production quotas, a long series of various supply problems and a US oil industry that is careful not to fall back into its past failings by adopting a profitability rather than productivity logic. This tightening is also visible in the level of U.S. inventories, which are abnormally low (below their average over the last five years) according to data compiled by the EIA.
In this context, the intensification of geopolitical tensions, particularly in Ukraine, where the Western camp fears an "imminent" invasion of Russia, is giving a boost to oil prices, but also more globally to commodity markets, since Moscow is a major player in the production of palladium, natural gas, wheat, platinum and nickel.
 
As for the signals that could trigger a consolidation of prices, investors are closely watching the resumption of negotiations around the Iranian nuclear issue, where Washington seems ready to make concessions in order to reach an agreement with Tehran. The eventual return of Iranian oil would mean an increase in supply of nearly 2 million barrels per day, which represents a real breath of fresh air in a tight market. The high prices are also a test for the US industry, which may be tempted to rapidly increase their drilling activities at the expense of their financial discipline.