CBO Congressional Budget Office : Estimate for Senate Amendment 2652 to S. 178, the Delivering Immediate Relief to America’s Families, Schools and Small Businesses Act

Congressional Budget Office

Estimate for Senate Amendment 2652 to S. 178, the Delivering Immediate Relief to America's Families, Schools

and Small Businesses Act

October 21, 2020

Table 1. Summary of Estimated Budgetary Effects

											2021-	2021-
By Fiscal Year, Billions of Dollars	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2025	2030

			Increases or Decreases (-) in Direct Spending (Division A)
Estimated Budget Authority	44.4	*	*	*	*	*	*
Estimated Outlays	316.2	*	*	*	*	*	*

*	*	*	44.4	44.4
*	*	*	316.2	316.2

			Increases or Decreases (-) in Revenues (Division A)
Estimated Revenues	-4.5	-7.4	-5.8	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1	*	*	*	-17.4	-17.3
			Increases in Discretionary Appropriations (Division B)
Budget Authority	187.5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	187.5	187.5
Estimated Outlays	68.0	62.6	34.6	11.7	5.6	2.2	1.1	0	0	0	182.6	185.8
			Net Increases or Decreases (-) in the Deficit
TOTAL	388.7	70.1	40.4	11.6	5.5	2.1	1.0	*	*	*	516.3	519.3

Sources: Congressional Budget Office; staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation.

Components may not sum to totals because of rounding; * = between -$50 million and $50 million.

CBO's estimates are relative to the March 2020 baseline, except as noted in Tables 2 and 3. Enactment is assumed early in fiscal year 2021.

The staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation provided estimates for the tax provisions in titles VI and IX of division A.

S. 178 is authorizing legislation, but section 406 specifies requirements for the budgetary treatment of division B. Consistent with those requirements, and at the direction of the Senate Committee on the Budget, division B is considered appropriation legislation rather than authorizing legislation. In addition, section 11001 would designate the budgetary effects of division A as an emergency requirement, in accordance with section 4(g) of the Statutory-Pay-As-You-Go Act of 2010 and section 4112(a) of H. Con. Res. 71.

The act contains intergovernmental and private-sector mandates as defined in the Unfunded Mandates Reform Act (UMRA). CBO estimates that the cost of the intergovernmental mandates would fall below the UMRA threshold ($84 million in 2020, adjusted annually for inflation). The most significant private-sector mandate would result from provisions in division A related to liability protections. CBO cannot estimate the cost of that mandate, but given the size of the mandated population, CBO concludes that the cost would exceed the UMRA threshold ($168 million in 2020, adjusted annually for inflation).

Congressional Budget Office

Estimate for Senate Amendment 2652 to S. 178, the Delivering Immediate Relief to America's Families, Schools and Small Businesses Act

October 21, 2020

Table 2. Changes in Direct Spending Under Division A

											2021-	2021-
By Fiscal Year, Millions of Dollars	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2025	2030
			Increases or Decreases (-) in Direct Spending
Title I-Sunsets and Offsets
Sec. 1002. Direct appropriation
Estimated Budget Authoritya	-254,000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	-254,000	-254,000
Estimated Outlays	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Sec. 1004. Rescissions
Budget Authorityb	-146,000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	-146,000	-146,000
Estimated Outlays	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Title II-Coronavirus Liability Reliefc,d
Estimated Budget Authority	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*
Estimated Outlays	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*
Title III-Assistance for American Families
Sec. 3002. Extension of the Federal Pandemic
Unemployment Compensation programd,e
Estimated Budget Authority	186,670	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	186,670	186,670
Estimated Outlays	186,670	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	186,670	186,670
Title IV-Small Business Programs
Sec. 4001. Small business recoveryf
Budget Authority	257,700	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	257,700	257,700
Estimated Outlays	129,547	11	1	1	*	0	0	0	0	0	129,560	129,560
Total Changes in Direct Spending
Estimated Budget Authority	44,370	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	44,370	44,370
Estimated Outlays	316,217	11	1	1	*	*	*	*	*	*	316,230	316,230

Source: Congressional Budget Office.

SBA = Small Business Administration; * = between -$500,000 and $500,000.

CBO's estimates are relative to the March 2020 baseline, except for estimates of extending the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation program, which are based on CBO's interim projection for the unemployment rate (see Congressional Budget Office, Interim Economic Projections for 2020 and 2021, May 2020, www.cbo.gov/publication/56351). Enactment is assumed early in fiscal year 2021.

Section 11001 would designate the budgetary effects of division A as an emergency requirement, in accordance with section 4(g) of the Statutory-Pay-As-You-Go Act of 2010 and section 4112(a) of H. Con. Res. 71.

1. Section 1002 would reduce budget authority currently available to the Treasury for the credit subsidy cost of federal loans, loan guarantees, and grants for various businesses and state and local governments, including assistance provided through the Federal Reserve. CBO estimates that those amounts would not be spent under current law; thus, reducing the budget authority would not affect outlays.
2. Section 1004 would reduce budget authority currently available to the SBA for the credit subsidy cost of Paycheck Protection Program loan guarantees and principal and interest payments on SBA loan products. CBO estimates that those amounts would not be spent under current law; thus, rescinding the budget authority would not affect outlays.
3. Title II would narrow the scope of liability of businesses, employers, health care providers, and other entities to civil lawsuits stemming from coronavirus-related harms. As a result, CBO expects that the liability provisions would decrease the number of suits filed and litigated in federal courts. The federal judiciary charges fees to file suit in district court. Those fees are recorded as revenues and can be spent without further appropriation. CBO estimates that the reduction in the number of suits filed each year would be small and that enacting the provisions would reduce revenues and direct spending by an insignificant amount over the 2021-2030 period.
4. Proposal would affect direct spending and revenues; the revenue effects are shown in Table 3.
5. Estimates of extending the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation program are based on CBO's interim projection for the unemployment rate.
6. Sec. 4001 would provide a direct appropriation of $257.6 billion for fiscal year 2020 for the cost of initial and supplemental Paycheck Protection Program loans and extend the SBA's authority to guarantee those loans through December 31, 2020. That section also would directly appropriate $50 million for 2020 to the SBA's salaries and expenses account and directly appropriate $10 million for 2020 to the Minority Business Development Agency. Although there is some uncertainty about the availability of those direct appropriations in 2021, CBO estimates that the funds would be available in that year; thus, CBO includes the budget authority in 2021 and its resulting outlays over the 2021- 2030 period.

Congressional Budget Office

Estimate for Senate Amendment 2652 to S. 178, the Delivering Immediate Relief to America's Families, Schools and Small Businesses Act

October 21, 2020

Table 3. Changes in Revenues Under Division A

											2021-	2021-
By Fiscal Year, Millions of Dollars	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2025	2030
				Increases or Decreases (-) in Revenues
Title II-Coronavirus Liability Reliefa,b	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*
Title III-Assistance for American Families
Sec. 3002. Extension of the Federal
Pandemic Unemployment Compensation
programb,c	0	55	176	177	137	65	52	8	0	0	545	670
Title VI-Educational Support and Child Care
Sec. 6002. Tax credits for contributions to
eligible scholarship-granting organizations	-1,500	-7,500	-6,000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	-15,000	-15,000
Sec. 6004. 529 account funding for
homeschool and additional elementary and
secondary expenses	*	-1	-1	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	-3	-3
Title IX-Charitable Giving
Sec. 9001. Increase in limitation on partial
above the line deduction for charitable
contributions	-2,956	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2,956	-2,956
Total Changes in Revenues	-4,456	-7,446	-5,825	177	137	65	52	8	*	*	-17,414	-17,289

Sources: Congressional Budget Office; staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation.

Components may not sum to totals because of rounding; * = between -$500,000 and zero.

CBO's estimates are relative to the March 2020 baseline, except for estimates of extending the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation program, which are based on CBO's interim projection for the unemployment rate (see Congressional Budget Office, Interim Economic Projections for 2020 and 2021, May 2020, www.cbo.gov/publication/56351). Enactment is assumed early in fiscal year 2021.

The staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation provided estimates for the tax provisions in titles VI and IX.

Section 11001 would designate the budgetary effects of division A as an emergency requirement, in accordance with section 4(g) of the Statutory-Pay-As-You-Go Act of 2010 and section 4112(a) of H. Con. Res. 71.

1. Title II would narrow the scope of liability of businesses, employers, health care providers, and other entities to civil lawsuits stemming from coronavirus-related harms. As a result, CBO expects that the liability provisions would decrease the number of suits filed and litigated in federal courts. The federal judiciary charges fees to file suit in district court. Those fees are recorded as revenues and can be spent without further appropriation. CBO estimates that the reduction in the number of suits filed each year would be small and that enacting the provisions would reduce revenues and direct spending each by an insignificant amount over the 2021-2030 period.
2. Proposal would affect direct spending and revenues; the effects on direct spending are shown in Table 2.
3. Estimates of extending the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation program are based on CBO's interim projection for the unemployment rate.

Congressional Budget Office

Estimate for Senate Amendment 2652 to S. 178, the Delivering Immediate Relief to America's Families, Schools and Small Businesses Act

October 21, 2020

Table 4. Discretionary Spending Under Division B, Coronavirus Response Additional Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2020

											2021-	2021-
By Fiscal Year, Millions of Dollars	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2025	2030
				Increases in Discretionary Spending
Appropriations Subcommittee
Labor, Health and Human Services, Education
Education Stabilization Fund
Budget Authority	105,000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	105,000	105,000
Estimated Outlays	28,350	34,650	23,100	10,500	5,250	2,100	1,050	0	0	0	101,850	105,000
Public Health and Social Services Emergency Fund
Budget Authority	47,000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	47,000	47,000
Estimated Outlays	10,980	23,040	10,180	840	280	0	0	0	0	0	45,320	45,320
Back to Work Child Care Grants
Budget Authority	10,000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10,000	10,000
Estimated Outlays	6,000	3,200	700	100	0	0	0	0	0	0	10,000	10,000
Child Care and Development Block Grants
Budget Authority	5,000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5,000	5,000
Estimated Outlays	2,600	1,500	500	250	100	50	0	0	0	0	4,950	5,000
Agriculture
Agriculture Programs, Office of the Secretary
Budget Authority	20,000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	20,000	20,000
Estimated Outlays	20,000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	20,000	20,000
Commerce, Justice, Science
Fisheries Disaster Assistance
Budget Authority	500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	500	500
Estimated Outlays	100	250	100	50	0	0	0	0	0	0	500	500
Total Increases in Discretionary
Spending
Budget Authority	187,500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	187,500	187,500
Estimated Outlays	68,030	62,640	34,580	11,740	5,630	2,150	1,050	0	0	0	182,620	185,820

Source: Congressional Budget Office.

CBO's estimates are relative to the March 2020 baseline. Enactment is assumed early in fiscal year 2021.

Division B would provide supplemental appropriations for federal agencies to respond to the novel coronavirus pandemic and provide assistance to nonfederal entities. Senate Amendment 2652 is authorizing legislation, but consistent with section 406 of division A, and at the direction of the Senate Committee on the Budget, division B is considered appropriation legislation rather than authorizing legislation. All discretionary spending resulting from division A would be designated as an emergency requirement in keeping with section 251 of the Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act of 1985. The limits on discretionary budget authority established by the Budget Control Act of 2011 (Public Law 112-25), as amended, would be adjusted to accommodate such spending.