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CBO Congressional Budget Office : Estimating the Federal Budgetary Effects of Pandemic-Related Legislation

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09/25/2020 | 09:05am EDT

Congressional Budget Office

September 25, 2020

Estimating the Federal Budgetary Effects of

Pandemic-Related Legislation

A Presentation to the Association for Budgeting and

Financial Management's 2020 Virtual Symposium

Theresa Gullo

Director of Budget Analysis

For further information about the venue, see https://tinyurl.com/y6sl4mrs.

CBO

Four Major Laws Enacted in March and April in Response to the 2020 Coronavirus Pandemic

  • H.R. 6074, Coronavirus Preparedness and Response Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2020
  • H.R. 6201, Families First Coronavirus Response Act
  • H.R. 748, Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act
  • H.R. 266, Paycheck Protection Program and Health Care Enhancement Act

1

CBO

Context for Cost Estimates

Prepared under extraordinary uncertainty about many factors

  • How long and severe the pandemic would be
  • How the economy, the Administration, and people would respond
  • How quickly programs would get up and running

Generally used CBO's March 2020 baseline projections

  • Did not account for changes to the economic outlook and fiscal situation arising from the evolving public health emergency in most cases
  • Used economic projections prepared in January 2020 for most provisions
  • Used updated economic projections for provisions related to unemployment insurance to provide useful estimates

Used revenue estimates prepared by the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation.

2

CBO

Total Estimated Budget Impact

Deficit increase: $2.4 trillion over the 2020-2030 period

  • $1.4 trillion for mandatory programs (Payroll Protection Program [PPP], Unemployment Insurance [UI], recovery rebates)
  • $498 billion in discretionary spending from appropriations for a wide variety of federal agencies and grant programs (designated as emergency requirements)
  • $502 billion in estimated revenue losses in 2020, but an increase of $146 billion over the 2021-2030 period (JCT)

$2.2 trillion estimated to occur in 2020

3

This is an excerpt of the original content. To continue reading it, access the original document here.

Disclaimer

CBO - Congressional Budget Office published this content on 25 September 2020 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 25 September 2020 13:04:05 UTC


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