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Ceska Narodni Banka : T. Holub – Měnová politika ČNB a její výhled

12/08/2021 | 05:22am EST

Měnová politika ČNB a její výhled

Zpráva o měnové politice - podzim 2021

Tomáš Holub

přednáška pro studentský spolek Prague Banking Club

Praha, 7. prosince 2021

Měnověpolitické rozhodnutí Bankovní rada ČNB na svém jednání 4. listopadu 2021 zvýšila dvoutýdenní repo sazbu o 125 bazických bodů na 2,75 %.

Současně rozhodla o zvýšení lombardní sazby na 3,75 % a diskontní sazby na 1,75 %.

Pro toto rozhodnutí hlasovalo pět členů bankovní rady,

dva členové bankovní rady hlasovali pro ponechání sazeb beze změny.

Přijaté rozhodnutí bankovní rady se opírá o podzimní makroekonomickou prognózu ČNB. S prognózou je konzistentní strmý nárůst tržních úrokových sazeb v závěru letošního

a začátkem příštího roku v reakci na aktuálně mimořádně silné inflační tlaky ze zahraniční i z domácí ekonomiky.

Zvýšení sazeb (od června celkově o 250 b. b.) omezí průsak inflačních tlaků do cenového vývoje a zabezpečí návrat inflace do blízkosti 2% cíle ČNB na horizontu měnové politiky.

2

Prognózy ČNB během covidu

  • Prognózy ČNB naznačovaly počátek návratu měnové politiky k normálu ve 2.H 2021 již od podzimu 2020.
  • Stávající nečekaný výkyv inflace směrem nahoru potřebu "normalizace" měnové politiky dále výrazně umocnil.
  • Reálná ekonomika přes všechny Covidové nejistoty oživila zhruba v souladu v prognózami, v poslední době ji však brzdí úzká hrdla v dodavatelských řetězcích (se stagflačními dopady).

Debata o dočasnosti inflace (i)

Jerome Powell, Fed Chairman:

"We tend to use [the word transitory] to mean that it won't leave a permanent mark in the form of higher inflation. I think it's probably a good time to retire that word and try to explain more clearly what we mean."

"At this point the economy is very strong and inflationary pressures are high and it is therefore appropriate in my view to consider wrapping up the taper of our asset purchases perhaps a few months sooner. And I expect that we will

discuss that at our upcoming meeting in a couple of weeks."

"Since the last meeting we've seen basically elevated inflation pressures, we've seen very strong labor-marketdata without any improvement in labor supply, and we've seen strong spending too. And remembering that every dollar of asset purchases does increase accommodation. We now look at an economy that is very strong and inflationary pressures that are high."

Podle výše uvedené definice je ČNB od samého počátku v "campu temporary". Ovšem s dovětkem, že debata není o tom, zda je vysoká inflace dočasná nebo ne, ale co pro tuto dočasnost musejí udělat centrální banky.

4

Debata o dočasnosti inflace (ii)

James Bullard, President of St. Louis Fed: A Risk Management Approach to Monetary Policy

"For most of 2021, U.S. monetary policy has been almost entirely positioned for the first scenario, where inflation moderates naturally. In that scenario, inflation returns to the 2% target without further policy action by the FOMC. The FOMC could begin to taper asset purchases later and at a more gradual pace, and the Committee would not need to contemplate taking additional action by increasing the policy rate until some point further in the future.

Only recently has monetary policy become better positioned for the second scenario, in which inflation does not naturally moderate. In that scenario, inflation does ultimately return to the 2% target but only because of additional

monetary policy action. To prepare for this possibility, the FOMC would have to begin to taper asset purchases sooner and at a faster pace, and the Committee would need to begin to contemplate increasing the policy rate sooner.

The FOMC's recent decision to begin tapering asset purchases and, by current estimates, to end the taper by mid-2022, embeds the risk management approach. As new data arrived during 2021, the probability of the second scenario began to rise and the probability of the first scenario began to fall. Accordingly, the tapering process began sooner and is scheduled for a faster pace than many anticipated six months ago, and market probabilities of an earlier

date for raising the policy rate from near zero (i.e. liftoff) have increased. This is good news because it means that monetary policy will be better positioned to respond smoothly to either of the two inflation scenarios in the year ahead."

5

This is an excerpt of the original content. To continue reading it, access the original document here.

Disclaimer

Ceska Narodni Banka published this content on 08 December 2021 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 08 December 2021 10:21:00 UTC.


© Publicnow 2021
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