Energy : Back to square one. Oil prices retreated last week and are trading close to their lows for the year, at 71 and 67 USD respectively for Brent and WTI. OPEC's forecasts fueled the downturn, with the cartel once again revising downwards its forecasts for global demand growth. OPEC is now forecasting growth of 1.82 mbpd, compared with 1.93 mbpd previously, an adjustment due mainly to the misalignment of Chinese consumption. Still on the subject of forecasts, the International Energy Agency has also updated its outlook, revising upwards its demand forecasts for this year. The institution sees global demand rising by 0.92 mbpd in 2024 (versus 0.9 mbpd previously). However, operators are taking an opportunistic approach at the start of the week: oil is regaining some height, supported by production disruptions at Norway's largest oil field. In addition, the Biden administration has authorized Ukraine to strike Russia with American long-range missiles. This authorization was put into practice today, raising fears of an escalation of the conflict.
Metals : China's new stimulus measures did not thrill the market. As a result, base metal prices took a nosedive last week, in quite significant proportions as the price of a tonne of copper fell below the USD 9,000 mark in London. Gold also lost ground for the second week running. Rising bond yields are weighing on the gold metal, which is now trading at around USD 2,600.
Agricultural products: The US Department of Agriculture estimates that US wheat stocks are likely to be higher than expected this year, which has weighed on wheat prices in Chicago. A bushel of wheat is trading at around 530 cents (contract expiry December 2024).
