Composite Leading Indicators (CLI), OECD, April 2021

CLIs continue to strengthen in most major economies
Download the entire news release (PDF)

13 April 2021 - The OECD Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, continue to strengthen in most major economies.

In the United States, the CLI continues to increase at a steady pace, driven an expansion in the consumer confidence. In Japan, Canada and the euro-area as a whole, particularly in Germany and Italy, the CLIs now point to a steady increase. In France, and now the United Kingdom, the CLIs signal stable growth.

Among major emerging economies, the CLIs for India, Russia and the manufacturing sector of China continue to expand at a steady pace, but in Brazil the CLI points to slowing growth.

The CLIs should continue to be interpreted with care as the changing measures to contain Covid-19 and the progress of vaccination campaigns are likely to engender higher than usual fluctuations in the underlying components and result in possible revisions. As always, the magnitude of CLI should be regarded as an indication of the strength of the signal rather than as a measure of the degree of growth in economic activity.

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Visit the interactive OECD Data Portal to explore this data further. The above graph show country specific composite leading indicators (CLIs solid line, left axis and the relative month-on-month growth rate, right axis). Turning points of CLIs tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to trend by six to nine months. The horizontal line at 100 represents the trend of economic activity. Shaded triangles mark confirmed turning-points of the CLI. Blank triangles mark provisional turning-points that may be reversed

> Access data:

• Composite Leading Indicators database
• Tables and graphs (PDF) of CLI and reference series for 33 OECD member countries and 6 major non-member economies.

Watch our video explaining how the Composite Leading Indicators are compiled Please note that in the video 'business cycle' should be understood as the growth cycle (deviation to trend), and that the term 'recession' should be understood as an economic slowdown rather than a recession.

Do you need help with our data? Please consult:

• FAQs
• Methodological information
• Glossary for Composite Leading Indicators and Business Tendency Surveys
• OECD Business Cycle Analysis Database

• Next publication date: 11 May 2021 - see the release calendar
• Contacts: for further information, journalists are invited to contact the OECD's Media Relations Division on (33) 1 45 24 97 00 or [e-mail]; others should contact the Statistics Directorate on [e-mail].
• Link to previous news releases
• Link to CLI original release data and revisions
• More information on leading indicators at www.oecd.org/sdd/leading-indicators/
  

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@OECD_STAT

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