Indeed, things seemed to be looking up for the US currency: negotiations between the US and its trading partners promise significant tariff reductions compared to the bombshell announcements made on Liberation Day, while the US president's tour of the Middle East ended with huge contracts for US companies. However, against all expectations, the rating agency Moody's took advantage of the weekend to throw a spanner in the works by downgrading the US debt rating from Aaa to Aa1.

Treasury Secretary and firefighter Scott Bessent tried to downplay the matter by explaining that the debt situation was already known to the financial markets and that Donald Trump had merely hesitated to address the situation left by his predecessor. Regardless of who is responsible, currency traders are once again betting on a weak dollar.

Technically, however, the EUR/USD remains in a consolidation phase, at least until it returns to 1.1255/1300. If this happens, we will have to revise our forecast of a decline towards 1.0950 and then ideally 1.0750/1.0690. At the same time, the British pound has failed to break through 1.3115 and therefore remains in its upward trend. The USD/CHF is on the verge of returning to its short-term resistence at 0.8325, which would mark the likely end of the rebound that began in April, with at least a retest of the recent lows at 0.8040.

On the commodity currency front, the USD/CAD has stabilized after hitting its first potential rebound at 1.4000/15, which, if broken, would open the way for 1.4100/30. The first support zone is at 1.3875/50. The Aussie has not broken any significant support (0.6360) for the moment to give credence to a rise in the dollar. Conversely, the Kiwi cannot say the same and is in a weaker position after breaking through 0.5895, which should open the way to 0.5750.