For over two months, the dollar has reigned supreme against the other G10 currencies. This is evidenced by the nearly 7% rise in the dollar index (DXY) shown below. The first thing that stands out, however, is the presence of horizontal resistance at 107.35, corresponding to the September 2023 peak. The Fibonacci analysis, meanwhile, allows us to refine matters and suggests a possible incursion as far as 108.00, but without tainting the prospect of further consolidation. The RSI, a well-known counter-trend indicator, is also evolving on overbought levels, conducive to intermediate returns.

Source: Bloomberg

In parallel, the EUR/USD has come to rest on the 1.0498 target (with a possible max of 1.0468) and is attempting to recover. We'll be keeping an eye on initial resistance at 1.0660. USD/JPY and USD/CHF have also (almost) reached their recovery targets at 156.84 and 0.8890, but we're refraining from getting in front of the train on these two markets.

In commodity currencies, USD/CAD has just breached resistance at 1.3959/75, putting an end to the consolidation that has been underway since 2022. While the upside target is 1.45, it's difficult to be aggressive (confident) on this idea given that the dollar is on resistance against the aussie and kiwi. We'll be watching AUD/USD 0.6428 and USD/NZD 0.5850 for possible intermediate rebounds.