As we pointed out in our weekly interest-rate update, France is now borrowing at rates similar to those of Greece, while the spread with Germany continues to widen due to pressure on the euro. The spread with Germany continues to widen due to the pressure exerted on the government (which some astute observers were already describing as provisional when it was appointed...) to adopt the 2025 budget. Will it pass or won't it? In the meantime, all this is not good news for the common currency, which is struggling to get back on its feet. Admittedly, it has managed to structure a rebound above 1.0335 and hit the target zone - but also the risk zone, at 1.055/66. As you can see, this resistance will have to be breached to halt the downward momentum underway since September.
The USDJPY and USDCHF are also consolidating. The former should reach 147.90 or even 145.90 by holding below 152.95, while the latter has touched 0.8820 but doesn't seem to be moving beyond it for the time being.
In the commodity currencies, the AUDUSD is stabilizing between 0.6428 and 0.6555, the resistance it needs to break through to open up real rebound potential towards 0.6686, while the NZD/USD is testing support at 0.5850 (and has made an incursion as far as 0.5796), with initial resistance at 0.5930.
