Unsurprisingly, the dollar has stalled and is waiting, some would say anxiously, for the Fed meeting. Yet investors agree that no major announcements are expected. The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its wait-and-see approach, despite recent encouraging statistics in terms of inflation and initial fears about the health of the world's leading economy. The euro thus touched the 1.0945/70 resistance zone, below which it is currently consolidating flat. Initial support remains around 1.07/1.0680. Any breach of the resistance zone should open up the highs at 1.1215/76.

There's nothing new to report on the USDJPY and USDCHF, which remain in their bearish trends below 149.35/150.30. and 0.8900 respectively.

In commodity currencies, we maintain our bearish view on USDCAD below resistance at 1.4545, with the target unchanged at 1.3950. For once, the kiwi is the first to have rallied to its previous high at 0.5770, whose breakout should open up the 0.5845 level. Still struggling, the aussie is still expected to reach 0.6408.

This week, the technical configuration we find most interesting to watch is on the EURZAR. The pair is currently testing the upper limit of its linear regression channel, in progress since 2023, as well as multiple symmetries between 20.00 and 20.21, while countercyclical indicators are overbought. The strategy consists of going short, in anticipation of a resumption of the underlying downtrend, and taking advantage of both the bearish directionality and the carry trade offered by a ZAR yield, which is well above that offered by the European currency. Only a breakout above 20.21 would invalidate this scenario.

Source: Bloomberg