The dollar is up for a 4th session, still buoyed by geopolitical tensions: they had eased on Monday morning in the hope of a diplomatic solution... but tonight it seems that Israel is really seeking escalation with Iran, despite Washington's 'messages' to refrain from 'retaliatory' strikes.

The Dollar-Index, which started from 104 last Wednesday, is up +0.15% at 106.20, its highest level since the end of October 2023.
The Euro is down symmetrically by -0.15% at 106.30, the Pound and the Swiss Franc by -0.1%.
These gaps are not very spectacular, and as a result, it is the Yen that stands out with a further -0.6% decline against the greenback (after a long plateau below 150.6 from March 20 to April 9): the $ is back at its highest level since early May 1990 and seems to be heading straight for 159, its March 1990 zenith.
The Dollar benefits from a rise in its yield, which was amplified by US retail sales figures that came in above expectations.
The US '10-yr' has soared by almost +15pts to 4.642%... and the '2-yr' has just flirted with 5.000% (4.999%).

US retail sales rose by 0.7% sequentially in March, ahead of market expectations, following a 0.9% rise the previous month (revised from an initial estimate of +0.6%).

The Commerce Department, which publishes these figures, states that excluding the automotive sector (vehicles and equipment), US retail sales rose by 1.1% last month, following a 0.6% increase in February.

Manufacturing activity continued to contract in the New York region in April, remaining in negative territory for the fourth month in a row.
The 'Empire State' index - compiled by the Federal Reserve's regional office - came in at -14.3 this month, compared with -20.9 in March.
The weekly hours worked sub-index deteriorated the most, to -10.6 from -10.4 last month, followed by the shipments sub-index (-14.4 vs. -6.9 the previous month) and the six-month forward expectations sub-index deteriorated from 21.6 to 16.7.

Investors' eyes will also turn to Beijing, where Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) figures will be published tomorrow, providing precious clues as to the recovery of the world's second-largest economy... the Yuan continues to oscillate nervously, dropping -1.8% on Monday to flirt with $7.2400.

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