After a dozen deadly boring sessions (since February 12), the FOREX is waking up a little, volatility is back (a timid return, in fact) with the Dollar-Index recovering 0.25% to 104.20, close to its February 19 levels.

The greenback regained 0.33% against the euro at 108.00, +0.3% against the pound at 1.2620, +0.5% against the Swiss franc... but the surprise came from the yen, which climbed symmetrically by 0.5% to $149.9 and gained 0.85% against the euro at 162.00.
The catalyst for this rebound does not seem fully justified by the day's figures, the reason seems more 'technical': according to the FedWatch barometer, the market now rules out any reduction in the cost of money in March and May, but the scenario of a rate cut in June is deemed credible by 51% of traders.

The 'figures of the day' are reassuring on the question of growth (France finally escaped recession in 'Q4' 2023 with +0.1% GDP) as well as inflation: according to the Commerce Department, the PCE price inflation index stood at +2.4% annualized in January, a rate 0.2 points lower than in December 2023, in line with Jefferies' forecast.

Excluding food and energy, two usually volatile categories, the underlying index fell from +2.9% to +2.8% month-on-month, again in line with the broker's expectations.

Also according to the Commerce Department, consumer spending in the US rose by 0.2% last month compared with December, on income growth of 1% month-on-month.

The Labor Department reported +13,000 new jobless claims in the US in the week to February 19, to 215,000.
The four-week moving average - more representative of the underlying trend - came in at 212,500 for the same week, down by 3,000 on the previous week's revised average.

On the Old Continent, the first monthly inflation figures for Germany published at 2:00 p.m. (CPI down from 3.1% to 2.7% in February) point to a further fall in prices to levels not seen since June 2021.

In addition, according to Insee's provisional end-of-month estimate, consumer prices in France rose by 2.9% year-on-year in February 2024, a slight slowdown after +3.1% in January.

Lastly, in January 2024, French household consumption expenditure on goods fell by 0.3% in volume terms over one month, following an increase of 0.3% in December 2023, according to Insee's CVS-CJO data.

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