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Dow Logs Biggest One-Day Gain Since July

11/03/2020 | 07:03pm EST

By Anna Hirtenstein and Paul Vigna

The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its best day since July as tens of millions of Americans headed to the polls to select the next president.

The blue-chip index rallied 554.98 points, or 2.1%, to 27480.03, its biggest one-day point and percentage gain since July 14. The S&P 500 rose 58.92 points, or 1.8%, to 3369.02. The Nasdaq Composite rose 202.96 points, or 1.9%, to 11160.57.

Stocks have fared well on Election Day. The S&P 500 has risen 0.9% on average on the 10 days from 1984 to 2020 that Americans went to the polls to elect a president. The index climbed on eight of those occasions.

Equities have generally performed well under President Trump -- the S&P 500 has surged 57% since the 2016 election. But the market lately is being buoyed partly by bets that former Vice President Joe Biden will win the White House and Democrats will take control of Congress.

The stock market usually feels more apprehensive about Democrats than Republicans, but "this is a unique year and a unique election," said Solita Marcelli, the Americas chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management.

Elections and stocks do have a relationship, though it is impossible to say definitively which drives the other. For election years since 1928 in which the S&P 500 is positive in the three months before Election Day, the incumbent party has won 87% of the time, according to brokerage firm BTIG.

Including Tuesday's rally, the S&P 500 is up more than 2% since Aug. 3.

The market has warmed to the chances of a "blue wave" outcome, in which Democrats win both the White House and control of Congress, Ms. Marcelli said, because it would make it more likely lawmakers would approve a generous stimulus package to spur economic activity under the new administration.

"A lot of people were very fearful of a blue wave and Biden, pricing in what it would mean for taxes and regulations," she said. Those fears have receded though. "The market has come around quite a bit."

If Democrats emerge as the winners, the government could spend an additional $3 trillion to bolster the U.S. economy, said Stephane Monier, chief investment officer at Lombard Odier. That would give fresh impetus to a stock-market rally that has waned in recent weeks.

"We'll wait to have the first part of the results and add risk to our client portfolios in the case of a clear Democratic or Republican sweep, " said Mr. Monier. "We will stay very cautious in the case of a split result."

If the Democrats emerge victorious, he said he plans to buy emerging-market equities. If it is a Republican win, Mr. Monier plans to invest in small and midcap stocks.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose to 0.881%, its highest level since June 8, from 0.848% Monday. Prices fall when yields rise.

A Biden win could mean "more fiscal stimulus, where we could get stronger growth outcomes and higher inflation," said Seamus Mac Gorain, head of global rates at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

This would weigh on the government-debt market, which tends to underperform in times of higher economic growth. "If we see a Democratic sweep, [10-year Treasury] yields could go up to 1% or potentially higher, " he said.

The WSJ Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, declined 0.7%. The biggest reaction to the elections might be in currency markets, rather than in stocks, said Eoin Murray, head of investments at Federated Hermes.

"An outright Biden win and the assumption around stimulus: You might see the dollar drop," said Mr. Murray. If Mr. Trump wins a second term, "there's a likelihood of more trade tensions and protectionism: You could see the dollar strengthen."

Despite the focus on the election, the long-term implications are less significant than most think, said Jason Pride, chief investment officer of private wealth at Glenmede.

The firm broke down market performance by presidential administrations going back to 1872 and discovered that the market's long-term performance regardless of who held the White House and Congress was no more than 1% to 2% different than the overall average.

"I think the analysis on Republicans or Democrats being better for the market is a bunch of malarkey," he said. What ultimately matters is how corporations respond to government policies, and "corporations are surprisingly adept at finding ways to be profitable" no matter the environment, he said.

In the S&P 500, 10 of 11 sectors rose. Energy, a group seen losing in a Biden administration, was the only sector down on the day.

Alibaba Group Holding slumped $25.27, or 8.1% to $285.57 after the Shanghai Stock Exchange postponed technology startup Ant Group's blockbuster initial public offering. Alibaba owns a 33% stake in Ant.

Cloud-computing firm Arista Networks surged $33.37, or 15%, to $249.49 after it raised its outlook for fourth-quarter revenue. PayPal Holdings shares dropped $7.95, or 4.2%, to $179.81 after it released expectations for next-quarter earnings that were below estimates.

In commodities, U.S. crude oil futures gained 2.3% to $37.66, following broader markets higher.

Overseas, the pan-continental Stoxx Europe 600 added 2.3% to 356.01 on optimism about global economic growth prospects. In Asia, most major benchmarks advanced. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.4% to 3271.07, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 2% to 24939.73. Japanese markets are closed for a holiday.

Frances Yoon contributed to this article.

Write to Anna Hirtenstein at anna.hirtenstein@wsj.com and Paul Vigna at paul.vigna@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

11-03-20 1902ET

Stocks mentioned in the article
ChangeLast1st jan.
ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LIMITED -2.13% 260.25 Delayed Quote.14.26%
ARISTA NETWORKS, INC. -0.43% 305.69 Delayed Quote.5.65%
DJ INDUSTRIAL -2.05% 30303.17 Delayed Quote.1.16%
EURO / US DOLLAR (EUR/USD) -0.46% 1.2108 Delayed Quote.-0.41%
FEDERATED HERMES, INC. -3.57% 28.63 Delayed Quote.2.77%
HANG SENG -0.30% 29344.1 Real-time Quote.8.09%
LONDON BRENT OIL -0.93% 55.54 Delayed Quote.7.08%
NASDAQ 100 -2.80% 13112.649836 Delayed Quote.4.62%
NASDAQ COMP. -2.61% 13270.597569 Delayed Quote.5.08%
PAYPAL HOLDINGS, INC. -4.59% 229.94 Delayed Quote.2.90%
S&P 500 -2.57% 3750.77 Delayed Quote.2.49%
S&P/CITIC 300 INDEX 0.00% 4904.18 Delayed Quote.6.43%
S&P/CITIC 50 INDEX 0.00% 4922.4 Delayed Quote.5.44%
SHANGHAI STOCK EXCHANGE B SHARES INDEX 0.70% 247.5429 Real-time Quote.0.96%
STOXX EUROPE 600 -1.16% 402.98 Delayed Quote.1.53%
UBS GROUP AG -1.17% 13.075 Delayed Quote.6.09%
WTI -0.27% 52.611 Delayed Quote.8.49%
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