ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA), December 2021

ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA)

December 2021

Thank you for participating in this survey - your time and input are greatly appreciated.

Please return the completed questionnaire to the ECB's email address ecb- [e-mail] by 18:00 CET on Thursday, 2 December 2021.

Disclaimer: This survey has been formulated by ECB staff; members of the ECB's decision-making bodies are not involved in the formulation of the survey. The survey's purpose is to gather analysts' expectations of the evolution of monetary policy instruments and initiatives that the ECB has already announced, as well as their expectations for the economy and financial markets. The questions never presume or signal an intention to undertake any particular policy action in the future.

Legal statement: Your individual answers to this voluntary survey will be treated confidentially by ECB staff, in accordance with applicable Union law, and used for the purpose of the survey only. The results of the survey will be published in aggregate form on the ECB website. If public disclosure of your individual answers were required, the ECB would seek to obtain your prior consent.

Completing the questionnaire

The questionnaire is organised in four separate sections:

1. Key ECB Interest Rates, Market Rates and Market Conditions;
2. Asset Purchases and Reinvestment;
3. Refinancing Operations;
4. Macroeconomic Outlook.

You are invited to respond to all questions, although if you are unable to respond to a question you may leave it blank.

An additional section is included at the end of the questionnaire should you wish to provide any further information or feedback.

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Entering your responses

For your ease of reference, in certain sections of the questionnaire recent values of the data have been included. Details about the recent values and their cut-off dates can be found in the Reference Data Annex to this questionnaire.

Data format

If a percentage rate is required as input, always omit the "%" sign. Similarly, if the question asks you to express the answer in basis points, always omit "bps".

If a date is required as input, always provide it in the format MMM YYYY (e.g. Apr 2019).

Unless otherwise stated, the questionnaire asks for future realisations of monetary policy instruments, financial and macroeconomic variables that you consider most likely to prevail over specific forecast horizons. In other words, your forecasts should reflect your modal projections over the forecast horizons and, if possible, should be mutually consistent for all surveyed variables.

Market rates

Please note that this survey asks for the level of the euro short-term rate (€STR) instead of the euro overnight index average (EONIA). The €STR reflects the wholesale euro unsecured overnight borrowing costs of euro area banks and complements existing benchmark rates. The EONIA is a measure of the euro interbank overnight lending conditions. As of 2 October 2019, the EONIA methodology has been redefined as the €STR plus a spread of 8.5 basis points. The EONIA will be discontinued on 3 January 2022.

For the sake of brevity, the questionnaire focuses on the €STR. However, the ECB considers the entire set of available interest rates when assessing prevailing market conditions.

Macroeconomic variables

For real GDP growth you are asked to provide your expectations of the change in the variable in quarter-on-quarter(q-o-q) terms (not annualised) that are calendar and seasonally adjusted. In addition, you are asked for your expectations of the long-run growth rate of GDP and of GDP growth at the time of the next increase in key interest rates - these should be provided in year-on-year(y-o-y) terms.

For HICP inflation and HICP inflation excluding energy and food, you are asked to provide your expectations of the change in the variable in y-o-y terms, both for the projections you are invited to provide and for the inflation rate you foresee prevailing at the time of the next increase in key interest rates. If your institution constructs projections at a monthly frequency for these variables, then a quarterly frequency

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may be calculated by taking the average of the y-o-y changes for each of the three months in the quarter.

For the unemployment rate, you are asked to provide period averages in seasonally adjusted terms, both for the projections you are invited to provide and for the unemployment rate you foresee prevailing at the time of the next increase in key interest rates.

Administration and contacts

If you have any questions, please contact us at [e-mail].

If your contact details or the contact person (i.e. the person that should receive the survey questionnaire) has changed, please inform us of the new details by sending an email to [e-mail].

Privacy statement for the Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA)

Participation in the Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA) is voluntary.

All personal data are processed in accordance with EU Data Protection Law.1 The European Central Bank (ECB) is the controller and the Monetary Policy Strategy Division in the ECB's Directorate General Monetary Policy is the unit responsible for processing your data.

Your personal data are processed based on your consent. The purpose of the processing is to maintain a list of contact persons in the participating organisations to whom any questions related to the survey may be addressed. There will be no further processing of your personal information if you withdraw your consent, although earlier processing will remain lawful.

Personal data will be accessed by the ECB staff members directly involved in the SMA.

Your personal data are stored for as long as your organisation participates in the survey and will be deleted after that. Your personal data will also be deleted as soon as the ECB receives notification that you no longer act as the contact person for your organisation, or if a new contact person has been nominated.

You have the right to access, rectify or (with some limitations) request deletion of your personal data or restriction of the processing of your data in line with Regulation (EU) 2018/1725. You can exercise these rights by sending an email to ecb-

1 Regulation (EU) 2018/1725 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 October 2018 on the protection of natural persons with regard to the processing of personal data by the Union institutions, bodies, offices and agencies and on the free movement of such data, and repealing Regulation (EC) No 45/2001 and Decision No 1247/2002/EC. For more details see here.

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[e-mail]. If you have any further questions, please contact the ECB's Data Protection Officer ([e-mail]).

Furthermore, you have the right to contact the European Data Protection Supervisor at any time regarding the processing of your personal data.

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1	Key ECB Interest Rates, Market Rates and Market Conditions

1.1 Please indicate the percentage chance you attach to the next rate change being an increase or a decrease, the most likely timing of such a change and the size of the change you expect.2

DFR

Direction	Probability	Month	Year	Size
Increase
Decrease

MRO

Direction	Probability	Month	Year	Size
Increase
Decrease

MLF

Direction	Probability	Month	Year	Size
Increase
Decrease

1.2 Please indicate the percentage chance you attach to a change at the dates surrounding the timing of the next rate change (increase or decrease) that you specified in your response to Question 1.1.3

DFR	Dates are centred on your answer to Q1.1; step size is at the Governing
				Council frequency
Increase								Check
Probability								sum is 100%

1. The probabilities of an increase or decrease must add up to 100%. DFR refers to the rate on the deposit facility, MRO refers to the rate on main refinancing operations and MLF refers to the rate on the marginal lending facility. Please include the sign of the rate change (+ for an increase, - for a decrease).
2. Responses must add up to 100%.

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