On May 1, U.S. markets remained open, with the S&P 500 extending its winning streak to eight consecutive sessions. London markets were also active, with the FTSE 100 posting a symbolic 0.02% gain, marking its 14th straight session in positive territory. Since April 9, the City has avoided any declines, showing no signs of hesitation.
 
On Wall Street, investors warmly welcomed the earnings reports from Microsoft and Meta, which are increasingly seen as early leaders in the AI race. In contrast, Qualcomm, Becton Dickinson, and Eli Lilly disappointed, suffering sharp declines. Microsoft is now poised to reclaim its title as the world's largest company by market capitalization, ahead of Apple, whose post-market earnings release — along with Amazon's — fell short of expectations.
 
Elsewhere on May 1, the United States and Ukraine signed an agreement on the exploitation of natural resources in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Donald Trump dismissed his national security adviser, Mike Waltz, reportedly over the mishandling of confidential communications on Signal. Later that day, the Wall Street Journal reported that Tesla was seeking a replacement for CEO Elon Musk — a claim the company quickly denied.
 
The stock market rally rests on two main hopes. First, that the disruption caused by U.S. tariffs will ease as negotiations begin. Second, that the Federal Reserve will be pressured into cutting interest rates sooner than expected to cushion the economy. Against these stronger forces, inflation concerns have temporarily faded into the background.
 
While earnings results are clearly feeling the impact of rising trade barriers — with a few exceptions like Microsoft, Google, and Meta — markets could continue to ride a wave of optimism over the coming days. In a positive signal, China's Ministry of Commerce indicated that negotiations with Washington remain possible, following renewed overtures from the U.S. side. The dynamic remains delicate: each party is waiting for goodwill gestures from the other before moving forward. The most likely scenario is that talks will begin, accompanied by some initial signs of easing, before dragging on toward eventual agreements. For now, markets aren't waiting for a final deal; they are satisfied simply believing that tensions will gradually ease.

The Asia-Pacific markets are putting Apple and Amazon on the back burner to focus on Chinese statements. The major stock markets are gaining ground. Less than 1% in Japan, South Korea, and India, but more in Australia (1.1%), Hong Kong (1.6%), and Taiwan (2.2%). European leading indicators are also playing China rather than the disappointing figures from the two tech giants.

Today's economic highlights

All eyes are on the US employment figures for April, published at 8:30 a.m. with its multiple components (hourly wages, unemployment rate, salaried employment, etc.). See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar: 0.8826 EUR and 0.7525 GBP
  • Bund/OAT spread: 72 points (stable)
  • VIX: 24.6 (stable)
  • Gold ounce: 3259 USD
  • Brent: $61.93
  • 10-year US: 4.23%
  • Bitcoin: USD 97,204

In corporate news:

  • Airbnb said Thursday it expects second-quarter revenue to be well below estimates and flagged a drop in U.S. demand, as uncertainty over American trade policy hurts consumer confidence. The stock is down 5.6% in premarket trading.
  • Amazon reported Thursday that its cloud division's revenue growth and operating income came in below estimates in the first quarter, while trying to reassure investors about the impact of tariffs on its e-commerce business. The stock is down 2.2% in premarket trading.
  • Apollo announced Friday a 5% rise in first-quarter profit, driven by higher fees from asset management and capital solutions such as underwriting loans and stocks.
  • Apple said Thursday it reduced its stock buyback program and expects its costs to rise by about $900 million in the quarter ending in June due to tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump if rates remain unchanged. The stock is down nearly 3% in premarket trading.
  • Block fell 21.3% after lowering its 2025 profit forecasts and missing quarterly earnings estimates, as the payments company faces weak consumer spending.
  • Cigna raised its full-year profit forecast on Friday after beating quarterly earnings estimates, helped by strong performance in its pharmacy benefits management business and lower-than-expected medical costs in its insurance unit.
  • Chevron reported Friday a first-quarter profit in line with market expectations, supported by a recovery in its refining business after losses late last year.
  • Cvs Health, Elevance Health, Humana, eHealth, GoHealth, and SelectQuote — the U.S. Department of Justice accused three of the country's largest health insurers on Thursday of paying hundreds of millions of dollars in kickbacks to brokers in exchange for enrolling patients in their Medicare Advantage plans.
  • Duolingo said Thursday it expects second-quarter revenue above estimates and raised its full-year sales outlook as more users pay for subscriptions that include artificial intelligence features.
  • Exxon Mobil reported Friday a first-quarter profit that beat Wall Street estimates, boosted by higher oil and gas production in its Guyana and Permian Basin operations. The stock is up 1.3% in premarket trading.
  • Johnson & Johnson — HistoSonics, a medical technology company backed by Johnson & Johnson, is exploring a potential sale valued at over $2.5 billion after receiving several buyout offers, according to the Financial Times on Friday.
  • Reddit forecast second-quarter revenue above estimates on Thursday, betting on increased digital ad spending on its social media platform despite marketing budget uncertainties.
  • Spirit Aerosystems reported Thursday a drop in first-quarter revenue, hurt by slower production on most programs from its main customer, Boeing.
  • Spotify said Thursday it had submitted an app update to Apple with an external link allowing users to purchase subscriptions, after a U.S. judge ruled that Apple had violated an order to allow greater competition for app downloads.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Amazon: Cantor Fitzgerald maintains its overweight rating and raises the price target from $230 to $240.
  • Atlassian: Bernstein maintains its outperform rating and lowers the price target from $325 to $310.
  • Autozone: Oppenheimer upgrades to outperform from market perform with a price target of $4600.
  • Block: Jefferies maintains its buy rating and lowers the price target from $70 to $60. TD Cowen also maintains its buy rating and lowers the price target from $80 to $69.
  • Builders Firstsource: Jefferies maintains its buy rating and lowers the price target from $147 to $137.
  • Caci International: Baptista Research downgrades to hold from buy with a reduced price target from $559 to $496.30.
  • Celsius Holdings: JP Morgan maintains its overweight rating and raises the price target from $39 to $44.
  • CRH: Stifel maintains its hold rating and lowers the price target from $95 to $87.50.
  • Estée Lauder: RBC Capital maintains its outperform rating and lowers the price target from $100 to $90.
  • Floor & Decor Holdings: Guggenheim maintains its buy rating and lowers the price target from $115 to $100.
  • GoDaddy: Jefferies maintains its hold rating and raises the price target from $185 to $200.
  • Graphic Packaging Holding: Baird maintains its outperform rating and lowers the price target from $32 to $27.
  • Hologic: JP Morgan maintains its overweight rating and lowers the price target from $85 to $70. Nephron Research LLC maintains its hold rating and lowers the price target from $80 to $72.
  • Host Hotels & Resorts: Jefferies maintains its hold rating and raises the price target from $14 to $15.
  • Instacart (Maplebear): Cantor Fitzgerald maintains its overweight rating and raises the price target from $51 to $54. JP Morgan also maintains its overweight rating and raises the price target from $44 to $50.
  • Monster Beverage: JP Morgan maintains its neutral rating and raises the price target from $53 to $60.
  • Paylocity Holding: Barclays maintains its equal weight rating and raises the price target from $204 to $209.
  • Reddit: Citizens maintains its market outperform rating and raises the price target from $155 to $180.
  • Ryan Specialty Holdings: Goldman Sachs maintains its neutral rating and lowers the price target from $76 to $74.
  • Service Corporation International: Oppenheimer maintains its outperform rating and lowers the price target from $92 to $86.