Forecasts for the UK economy:
a comparison of independent forecasts
compiled by the Macroeconomic Co-ordination & Strategy Team www.gov.uk/government/organisations/hm-treasury/series/data- forecasts
No. 407 June2021
Contents
Short-term forecasts, June 2021
Page | |
Summary Page: Short-term forecasts | 3 |
Table 1 - 2021: Growth in GDP and its components (% change) | 4 |
Table 2 - 2021: Growth in prices and monetary indicators (% change) | 5 |
Table 3 - 2021: Growth in other selected variables (% change) | 6 |
Table 4 - 2022: Growth in GDP and its components (% change) | 7 |
Table 5 - 2022: Growth in prices and monetary indicators (% change) | 8 |
Table 6 - 2022: Growth in other selected variables (% change) | 9 |
Average of independent forecasts for 2021; GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation and claimant unemployment | 10 |
Average of independent forecasts for 2021; Current account and PSNB (2021-22) | 11 |
Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2021; GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation made in the last 3 months | 12 |
Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2021; LFS unemployment, current account and PSNB (2021-22) made in last 3 months | 13 |
Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2022; GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation made in the last 3 months | 14 |
Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2022; LFS unemployment, current account and PSNB (2022-23) made in last 3 months | 15 |
Annex 1: Forecasting institutions referred to in charts and tables | 16 |
Annex 2: Data definitions | 17 |
Annex 3: Notation used in tables | 18 |
Annex 4: Organisation contact details | 19 |
Please note that Forecasts for the UK economy is a summary of published material reflecting the views of the forecasting organisations themselves and does not in any way provide new information on the Treasury's own views. It contains only a selection of forecasters, which is subject to review. No significance should be attached to the inclusion or exclusion of any particular forecasting organisation. HM Treasury accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of material published in this comparison.
The averages and ranges in this document may be reproduced free of charge in any format or medium providing that it is reproduced accurately and not used in a misleading context. The data remain the copyright of those organisations providing it - permission to reproduce it must be sought from both HM Treasury and the providers of the original data.
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Forecasts for the UK economy is compiled and co-ordinated by Marc Press. Please direct enquiries on the content of this issue to Marc Press
(marc.press@hmtreasury.gov.uk).
The next edition will be published on 21st July 2021. It will also be available on the Treasury's website:
https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/data-forecasts.
ISBN 978-1-911680-98-7
Forecasts for the UK economy | June 2021 | 2 |
FORECASTS FOR THE UK ECONOMY
This edition of the comparison contains 15 new forecasts, all of which were received between May 28th and June 10th
2021. The tables below summarise the average and range of independent forecasts for 2021 and 2022 and show the average
of this month's new forecasts.
Forecasts for 2021
Independent+ | Average of new* | ||||||
Averages | June | ||||||
forecasts | |||||||
June | May | Lowest | Highest | ||||
GDP growth (per cent) | 6.7 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 8.1 | 6.8 | ||
Inflation rate (Q4: per cent) | |||||||
- | CPI | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 3.7 | 2.4 | |
- | RPI | 3.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 4.2 | 3.7 | |
LFS unemployment rate (Q4: %) | 5.8 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 5.7 | ||
Current account (£bn) | -85.6 | -88.9 | -130.4 | -49.3 | -79.7 | ||
PSNB (2021-22: £bn) | 217.5 | 216.9 | 138.4 | 261.3 | 217.1 | ||
Forecasts for 2022 | |||||||
Independent+ | Average of new* | ||||||
Averages | June | ||||||
forecasts | |||||||
June | May | Lowest | Highest | ||||
GDP growth (per cent) | 5.3 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 8.2 | 5.4 | ||
Inflation rate (Q4: per cent) | |||||||
- | CPI | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 5.2 | 1.8 | |
- | RPI | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 5.3 | 2.7 | |
LFS unemployment rate (Q4: %) | 5.1 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 4.9 | ||
Current account (£bn) | -95.8 | -97.2 | -184.2 | -36.3 | -86.5 | ||
PSNB (2021-22: £bn) | 117.9 | 120.4 | 57.9 | 235.3 | 109.6 | ||
+ Independent averages, and the range of forecasts, are based on forecasts made in the last three months: April 2
institutions, May 11 institutions and June 14 institutions.
*Calculated from new forecasts received for the comparison this month.
Note: All the averages given are the mean and exclude non-standard entries except for house-price inflation (see
notation)
Forecasts for the UK economy | June 2021 | 3 |
Table 1 - 2021: Growth in GDP and its components (% annual growth)
Forecasters and dates of forecasts | Quarterly GDP (QoQ %) | Private consumption | Government consumption | Fixed investment | Inventories (contribution to GDP growth (ppt)) | Domestic demand | Total exports | Total imports | Net trade (contribution to GDP growth (ppt)) | Output Gap (as % of potential GDP) | ||||
GDP | ||||||||||||||
City forecasters | Q2 | Q3 | ||||||||||||
Bank of America - Merrill Lynch | Jun | * | 7.4 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 13.7 | 7.8 | 0.4 | - | - | - | -0.5 | - |
Barclays Capital | Jun | * | 6.1 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 4.7 | 14.4 | 7.5 | -0.1 | - | - | - | -1.0 | - |
Bloomberg Economics | May | 7.2 | 5.0 | 3.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
Capital Economics | Jun | * | 8.0 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 7.2 | 14.5 | 9.3 | 0.2 | 9.6 | 0.8 | 6.3 | -1.6 | - |
Citigroup | May | 7.3 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 7.7 | 10.3 | 11.2 | -0.1 | 6.5 | -2.2 | -0.9 | -0.4 | - | |
Commerzbank | Dec | 5.4 | 2.1 | - | 4.9 | 7.7 | 8.9 | 0.5 | 7.7 | 0.7 | 8.2 | -2.2 | -5.3 | |
Credit Suisse | May | 5.7 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 14.2 | 5.8 | 0.0 | 8.4 | -5.4 | 3.6 | -2.7 | - | |
Daiwa Capital Markets | Feb | 4.6 | 4.0 | - | 5.6 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 0.6 | 6.4 | -1.1 | 4.8 | -1.7 | - | |
Deutsche Bank | May | 6.7 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 13.5 | 11.6 | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
Goldman Sachs | Jun | * | 8.1 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 3.9 | - | - | - | - | 4.1 | - | - | -5.5 |
HSBC | Jun | * | 6.8 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 6.3 | 12.1 | 8.8 | - | 8.6 | 0.9 | 7.1 | - | - |
JP Morgan | May | 7.9 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 14.5 | - | -1.0 | 5.8 | 1.8 | -3.3 | 1.5 | - | |
Morgan Stanley | Feb | 3.5 | 3.6 | - | 5.6 | 4.7 | 6.7 | 0.2 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 5.1 | -0.4 | - | |
Natwest Markets | Jun | * | 7.1 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 13.6 | 6.0 | - | 6.9 | -2.0 | -2.5 | 0.2 | - |
Nomura | May | 5.9 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 13.1 | 7.5 | 0.5 | -1.7 | -0.9 | -0.2 | |||
Pantheon | May | 6.7 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 12.0 | 6.3 | 0.4 | 6.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | 0.2 | - | |
Schroders Investment Management | Jan | 5.0 | 2.8 | - | 5.1 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 0.5 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 10.2 | 2.8 | -1.0 | |
Societe Generale | Jun | * | 6.9 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 14.1 | 7.5 | 0.6 | 6.9 | -2.1 | -1.8 | -0.1 | -0.7 |
UBS | Jun | * | 5.3 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 1.9 | 7.5 | -0.4 | 7.1 | -2.4 | - |
Non-City forecasters | ||||||||||||||
British Chambers of Commerce | Jun | * | 6.8 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 12.0 | - | - | - | 0.7 | 5.1 | - | - |
Beacon Economic Forecasting | May | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 5.2 | 13.5 | 9.4 | 0.7 | 9.2 | 2.6 | 12.7 | -3.8 | - | |
CBI | Mar | 6.0 | - | - | 3.5 | 12.7 | 9.8 | 0.0 | - | - | - | -0.9 | - | |
CEBR | Aug | 5.4 | - | - | 4.8 | -2.6 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 3.5 | 2.4 | -3.8 | 1.8 | - | |
Economic Perspectives | Apr | 6.0 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 5.5 | 9.6 | 6.9 | 1.2 | 8.4 | -0.8 | 8.3 | -2.7 | - | |
Experian Economics | Jun | * | 7.1 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 12.6 | 6.9 | 0.4 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 17.7 | -0.5 | - |
EIU | May | 5.3 | - | - | 5.1 | 9.0 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 10.9 | - | -4.0 | |
Heteronomics | Jun | * | 5.4 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 4.4 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 1.5 | 5.9 | 1.3 | 8.2 | -2.1 | 0.0 |
ITEM Club | Jun | * | 6.8 | - | - | 4.4 | 9.9 | 10.3 | - | 7.6 | 4.9 | 7.6 | - | - |
Kern Consulting | Jun | * | 5.8 | - | - | 5.3 | - | 7.7 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Liverpool Macro Research | May | 7.9 | - | - | 5.7 | 6.6 | 12.6 | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
NIESR | Feb | 3.4 | 4.5 | - | 2.6 | 5.5 | 8.0 | 1.2 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 9.2 | -1.8 | - | |
Oxford Economics | Jun | * | 8.0 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 6.3 | 13.9 | 8.3 | 0.5 | 9.0 | 1.9 | 5.2 | -1.0 | -2.7 |
European Commission | Nov | 3.3 | - | - | 1.6 | 8.9 | 1.1 | - | 3.2 | - | - | - | -5.6 | |
OECD | May | * | 7.2 | 20.9 | 13.4 | ag 5.8 | 11.9 | 6.6 | 0.2 | 7.4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | -0.2 | -4.6 |
IMF | Apr | 5.3 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | -2.6 | 2.3 | - | -3.1 | |
Average of forecasts made in the last 3 months (excludes OBR forecasts) | ||||||||||||||
Independent | 6.7 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 4.9 | 12.0 | 8.2 | 0.6 | 7.6 | 0.8 | 4.7 | -1.0 | -2.9 | ||
New (marked *) | 6.8 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 5.0 | 12.3 | 7.9 | 0.7 | 7.7 | 1.7 | 6.0 | -1.0 | -2.2 | ||
City | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 0.3 | 7.4 | -0.6 | 1.4 | -0.6 | -3.1 | ||
Range of forecasts made in the last 3 months (excludes OBR forecasts) | ||||||||||||||
Highest | 8.1 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 7.7 | 14.5 | 12.6 | 3.2 | 9.6 | 9.1 | 17.7 | 1.5 | 0.0 | ||
Lowest | 5.3 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 6.6 | 5.8 | -1.0 | 5.8 | -5.4 | -3.3 | -3.8 | -5.5 | ||
Median | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 5.1 | 12.6 | 7.7 | 0.4 | 7.4 | 0.8 | 5.1 | -0.5 | -3.1 | ||
OBR | Mar | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 12.0 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 7.6 | 0.2 | 12.5 | -3.6 | -1.1 |
Forecasts for the UK economy | June 2021 | 4 |
Table 2 - 2021: Growth in prices and monetary indicators (% change)
on Q4 year | |||
Forecasters and dates of forecasts | CPI(Q4 ago,%) | ||
City forecasters | |||
Bank of America - Merrill Lynch | Jun | * | 2.6 |
Barclays Capital | Jun | * | 2.4 |
Bloomberg Economics | May | 2.3 | |
Capital Economics | Jun | * | 2.3 |
Citigroup | May | 2.6 | |
Commerzbank | Dec | 1.9 | |
Credit Suisse | May | 2.3 | |
Daiwa Capital Markets | Feb | 2.1 | |
Deutsche Bank | May | 2.2 | |
Goldman Sachs | Jun | * | 2.2 |
HSBC | Jun | * | 2.3 |
JP Morgan | May | 1.7 | |
Morgan Stanley | Feb | 2.0 | |
Natwest Markets | Jun | * | 2.8 |
Nomura | May | 2.2 | |
Pantheon | May | 2.3 | |
Schroders Investment Management | Jan | 1.9 | |
Societe Generale | Jun | * | 2.5 |
UBS | Jun | * | 2.5 |
Non-City forecasters | |||
British Chambers of Commerce | Jun | * | 2.2 |
Beacon Economic Forecasting | May | 2.6 | |
CBI | Mar | 2.1 | |
CEBR | Aug | 2.3 | |
Economic Perspectives | Apr | 3.7 | |
Experian Economics | Jun | * | 2.2 |
EIU | May | 1.5 | |
Heteronomics | Jun | * | 2.3 |
ITEM Club | Jun | * | 2.6 |
Kern Consulting | Jun | * | 2.1 |
Liverpool Macro Research | May | 2.0 | |
NIESR | Feb | 1.3 | |
Oxford Economics | Jun | * | 2.0 |
European Commission | Nov | 2.3 | |
OECD | May | * | 1.7 |
IMF | Apr | 2.1 |
Average of forecasts made in the last 3 months (excludes OBR forecasts)
Independent | 2.3 |
New (marked *) | 2.4 |
City | 2.4 |
Range of forecasts made in the last 3 months (excludes OBR forecasts)
Highest | 3.7 | |
Lowest | 1.5 | |
Median | 2.3 | |
OBR | Mar | 1.6 |
RPI (Q4 on Q4 year ago, %) | Average earnings | Sterling index (Jan 2005=100) | Official Bank rate (level in Q4, %) | Oil price (Brent, $/bbl) | Nominal GDP | House price inflation (Q4 on Q4 year ago, | %) | |
4.1 | - | - | 0.10 | - | - | - | ||
4.0 | - | - | 0.10 | 66.0 | - | - | ||
- | - | - | 0.10 | - | - | - | ||
3.3 | 4.6 | 84.7 | 0.10 | - | - | - | ||
3.3 | 8.7 | - | 0.10 | - | - | 2.9 | z | |
2.3 | 3.3 | 79.6 | 0.10 | 45.0 | 7.2 | -2.7 | y | |
- | - | - | 0.10 | - | - | - | ||
- | 1.0 | 80.0 | 0.10 | - | - | 2.5 | y | |
3.3 | - | - | 0.10 | - | - | - | ||
- | - | - | 0.10 | 73.1 | 8.9 | - | ||
3.3 | 3.1 | - | 0.10 | - | - | - | ||
- | - | - | 0.10 | - | - | - | ||
2.6 | - | - | 0.10 | - | - | -2.0 | ||
3.9 | 3.9 | - | 0.10 | 70.0 | 9.6 | - | ||
3.5 | 4.9 | 85.7 | 0.10 | |||||
3.5 | 4.8 | - | 0.10 | - | - | 4.5 | z | |
3.5 | 2.0 | - | 0.10 | - | 6.6 | 5.4 | x | |
3.9 | 4.2 | - | 0.10 | - | 9.7 | - | ||
3.7 | - | - | 0.10 | 65.5 | h | 6.3 | - | |
- | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||
4.2 | 4.1 | 84.0 | 0.10 | 65.9 | 9.4 | - | ||
2.5 | - | - | 0.10 | 44.5 | - | - | ||
3.2 | 3.1 | 81.0 | 1.08 | - | - | - | ||
3.8 | 3.5 | 74.0 | 0.10 | 60.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | ||
3.7 | 3.9 | 89.6 | 0.10 | 62.2 | 7.3 | 5.5 | ||
2.0 | 0.6 | - | 0.10 | 42.3 | 6.1 | -3.5 | ||
3.9 | 3.0 | 80.3 | 0.10 | 61.1 | - | -1.5 | z | |
3.4 | 3.9 | - | 0.10 | - | - | 4.0 | ||
- | 3.8 | - | 0.10 | 74.0 | - | - | ||
- | 3.8 | 80.8 | 0.25 | - | - | - | ||
2.9 | - | - | 0.10 | - | - | 1.2 | k | |
3.5 | 3.5 | 82.2 | 0.10 | 64.4 | 7.8 | 7.0 | ||
- | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||
- | - | - | - | - | 8.1 | - | ||
- | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||
3.6 | 4.0 | 82.7 | 0.11 | 63.9 | 8.2 | 2.6 | ||
3.7 | 3.8 | 84.2 | 0.10 | 67.3 | 8.3 | 3.8 | ||
3.6 | 4.9 | 85.2 | 0.10 | 69.7 | 8.6 | 3.7 | ||
4.2 | 8.7 | 89.6 | 0.25 | 74.0 | 9.7 | 7.0 | ||
2.0 | 0.6 | 74.0 | 0.10 | 42.3 | 6.1 | -3.5 | ||
3.6 | 3.9 | 83.1 | 0.10 | 65.2 | 8.5 | 3.5 | ||
2.4 | 1.9 | 79.5 | 0.0 | 54.3 | 5.2 | 0.2 |
Forecasts for the UK economy | June 2021 | 5 |
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