Germany's most populous state sees biggest inflation jump in decades

BERLIN (Reuters) -German inflation likely grew significantly in September based on initial data from its most populous state, which saw the biggest jump since the early 1950s, according to its statistics office.

The state of North Rhine Westphalia saw inflation rise 10.1% year-on-year in September, mainly due to higher costs for goods and services after a cheap transport ticket and fuel tax cut expired at the end of August.

Those factors led to inflation being similarly high in four other states, ranging from 9.2% in Saxony to 10.8% in Bavaria.

The federal statistics office will publish a flash estimate for nationwide September inflation later on Thursday.

Analysts polled by Reuters expect EU-harmonized consumer prices (HICP) to increase by 10% on the year in September.

Rising energy prices spurred by dwindling gas supplies from Russia have pushed inflation rates to highs not seen in decades, with the massive loss in consumer purchasing power adding to the likelihood that a recession is on the way.

Citing soaring gas prices, four leading German economic institutes almost halved their spring economic growth forecast for Europe's largest economy this year and slashed their 2023 projection to -0.4% from 3.1%.

German consumers have begun changing their shopping behaviour due to the jump in energy costs, according to a survey issued by the HDE trade association on Thursday, with 46% saying they had stopped buying certain products as a result and 60% increasingly taking advantage of offers when buying groceries.

(Reporting by Klaus Lauer, Writing by Miranda Murray, Editing by Rachel More, Robert Birsel)