Equity indices once again swayed to the rhythm of corporate earnings and underlying trends. In Europe, moves ranged from a 0.7% gain for France’s CAC 40 to a spectacular 3.2% slump for Belgium’s Bel 20. Paris drew support from robust results at Schneider Electric, which closed up 3%, notching a record high and cementing its position as the largest weighting in the CAC 40. The FTSE and the Dax ended 0.4% higher.

By contrast, Brussels was let down by its two flagship healthcare names, ArgenX and UCB, which tumbled 8% after results deemed disappointing. It is a variant of the Novo Nordisk syndrome: the Bel 20 is heavily exposed to these two companies, just as Copenhagen’s OMX index is to the anti-obesity drug specialist. Such concentration is convenient when all is well, but it stings when sentiment turns.

In New York, the Nasdaq surrendered ground after rebounding over the previous two sessions. The technology-heavy index was dragged lower by a 5.5% slide in Nvidia, following the release of its quarterly figures. An odd denouement, given that the company had initially advanced on what were, by any measure, stratospheric results. The market remains uneasy about the ramifications of artificial intelligence, a theme that continues to fuel intense debate. Put simply, will this technological leap ultimately undermine once untouchable tech groups, or even trigger a broader societal and economic shock? No one has a definitive answer, yet apocalyptic scenarios tend to crowd out more mundane narratives.

What stood out yesterday was that semiconductor stocks faltered while software names extended their rebound. One of the clearest lessons of recent months is that technology is no longer a monolithic bloc rising and falling in unison. Investors are rediscovering selectivity, advancing through the fog created by the complexity of the current technological upheaval. Certain market moves now defy easy logic. Take yesterday’s session: Nvidia and chipmakers retreated, yet Schneider shone thanks to its exposure to AI-driven data centres. After the US close, Dell surged 11% for much the same reason as Schneider, while data centre operator CoreWeave sank on guidance judged underwhelming.

Against this backdrop, talk of the Fed Put may be returning to the fore. This is the conviction among American investors that the Federal Reserve ultimately steps in by cutting rates if matters truly spiral out of control. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries fell back below 4% yesterday, a threshold breached only twice since December.

The final session of both the week and the month is also marked by stabilising oil prices, as the United States and Iran are set to resume nuclear talks next week. On the geopolitical front, tensions are running high in Afghanistan, where Pakistan is conducting intense air strikes on Taliban positions, raising the spectre of open conflict with the regime. Meanwhile, barring a sharp reversal, gold is poised to record a seventh consecutive monthly gain, which would mark a first since 1973, according to Bloomberg.

Investors are also keeping a close watch on the standoff between the Pentagon and its AI supplier Anthropic, which appears to be deteriorating. Attention is likewise turning to warning signs in private credit. The latest episode is the collapse of British mortgage lender MFS, a failure that could inflict losses on several prominent creditors, including Jefferies, Barclays and Atlas SP Partners. At the same time, an Apollo Global fund exposed to the same private credit segment has been forced to trim risk. Financiers are left wondering who might be next in this corner of the market, hoping that the dominoes are not standing too close together.

In Asia-Pacific, South Korea ultimately closed lower, with the KOSPI down 1%. Elsewhere, markets traded within narrower ranges, yet the aggregate performance was sufficient for the MSCI Asia Pacific index to notch yet another record at the end of the week. Leading indicators in Europe are tentative but leaning higher, while Wall Street futures are edging down.

Today's economic highlights:

Today's agenda includes: Gfk Consumer Confidence in the United Kingdom; Housing Starts in Japan; in France, preliminary annual and monthly inflation rates followed by unemployment benefit claims; in Spain, preliminary annual and monthly inflation rates; in Switzerland, GDP growth rate and KOF Leading Indicators; in Germany, unemployment rate, unemployment change, and unemployed persons followed by preliminary annual and monthly inflation rates; in China, FDI (YTD) YoY; in the United States, Core PPI MoM, PPI MoM, and Chicago PMI; in Canada, annualized GDP growth rate, GDP MoM, preliminary GDP MoM, and GDP growth rate QoQ. See the full calendar here.

  • GBP / USD: US$1.35
  • Gold: US$5,185.11
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): US$71.22
  • United States 10 years: 4%
  • BITCOIN: US$67,693.1

In corporate news:

  • Shell is troubleshooting subsea equipment at its Ormen Lange gas field, where output has been curtailed since February 16, with the outage expected to end by March 12.
  • Indigo Partners plans to sell a 10% stake in Wizz Air through an accelerated bookbuild offering to institutional investors.
  • HSBC is working with major banks to attract bids for its Indonesian consumer business, which may be valued at over $200 million.
  • Guardian Metal Resources has filed for a U.S. IPO and plans to list on NYSE American under the symbol "GMTL."
  • London Stock Exchange Group reported a 7% organic revenue growth for FY25, upgraded mid-term targets, and announced a £3 billion share buyback program.
  • Hikma Pharmaceuticals reported higher FY25 revenue but issued a disappointing 2026 outlook, scrapped medium-term targets, and announced increased R&D investments.
  • Ocado reported mixed FY25 results, announced plans to cut 1,000 jobs, and targets becoming cash flow positive in the second half of 2026.
  • Howden Joinery beat annual profit estimates for 2025 and announced a £100 million share buyback for 2026.
  • Drax beat annual profit expectations for 2025, raised its dividend by 11.5%, and hit a 20-year high in share price.
  • Rolls-Royce reported a 40% rise in annual profit for 2025, upgraded mid-term targets, and announced a multi-year share buyback program of £7-9 billion.
  • Man Group reported record assets under management for 2025 but saw a 14% decline in profit before tax.
  • WPP unveiled its "Elevate28" recovery plan targeting cost savings and a return to organic growth by 2027 after a challenging FY25.
  • BASF reports an increase in net profit in 2025.
  • Holcim expects to improve its revenues by 3-5% this year and its recurring EBIT by 8-10%.
  • Schweiter Technologies reports a net loss in 2025.
  • Swiss Re posts an increase in net profit in 2025, but sees its insurance revenues decline.
  • Prysmian forecasts an increase in profits in 2026 after a slight decline in operating income in the fourth quarter.
  • Avolta secures 12-year contract extension at Miami Airport.
  • SBM Offshore launches €227 million share buyback program.
  • Stocks rising after closing following their quarterly results: Dell (+11.6%)…
  • Stocks falling after closing following their quarterly results: Zscaler (-9.5%), CoreWeave (-9%), Flutter (-7%)…
  • Netflix drops its bid for Warner Bros., Paramount wins the day.
  • Jefferies is reportedly exposed to $135 million in losses from the bankruptcy of British mortgage finance company MFS, according to Bloomberg.
  • Ford recalls 4.3 million vehicles in the US due to a software issue.
  • Meta files lawsuit over deepfake scams in Brazil and China. In other news, Google has reportedly signed a multi-billion dollar deal with Meta to lease AI chips, according to The Information.
  • Block is cutting more than 4,000 jobs, with its share price jumping 23%.
  • eBay is cutting 6% of its workforce.
  • United Airlines is increasing its stake in Brazilian airline Azul to 8.7%.

See more news from UK listed companies here

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Tate & Lyle Plc: Berenberg maintains its hold recommendation and raises the target price from GBX 450 to GBX 464.
  • Hochschild Mining Plc: RBC Capital maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from GBX 575 to GBX 625.
  • Molten Ventures Vct Plc: RBC Capital maintains its outperform recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 4600 to GBX 4500.
  • Fresnillo Plc: RBC Capital maintains its sector perform recommendation and raises the target price from GBX 3000 to GBX 3200.
  • Wpp Group: Citi maintains its neutral recommendation and reduces the target price from GBP 3.65 to GBP 3.10.
  • St. James's Place Plc: UBS maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from GBX 1465 to GBX 1600.
  • Flutter Entertainment Plc: Barclays maintains its overweight recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 304 to USD 225.
  • Jet2 Plc: UBS maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 1930 to GBX 1790.
  • Man Group Plc: Citi maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from GBP 2.75 to GBP 2.90.
  • Wpp Group: UBS maintains its sell recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 280 to GBX 210.
  • London Stock Exchange Group Plc: JP Morgan maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from GBP 132 to GBP 136.
  • Hikma Pharmaceuticals Plc: Jefferies maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 2360 to GBX 1850.
  • Hsbc Holdings Plc: CICC maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from HKD 136.80 to HKD 170.80.
  • Fresnillo Plc: Morgan Stanley maintains its underweight recommendation and raises the target price from GBX 2210 to GBX 2530.