Investors are getting a bit nervous as the positive start to the year on the financial markets is colliding with a health situation that is still out of control, despite the deployment of vaccines.
While financiers agree that the prevailing optimism can be credited to the Biden team's recovery plan, which should be adopted in the coming weeks, sector developments tell a different story. Consumer staples, healthcare and telecoms are on the rise, while financial services, energy, basic materials and industry are falling slightly. Not very cyclical at all. And of course, technology continues to crush everything in its path. Apple set a new market record yesterday, two days before announcing its 2020 results.
In Europe, The European Central Bank presented the results of the survey of professionals on growth and inflation in the euro zone for the coming years. While inflation is expected to remain unchanged compared to the previous data: 1.7% in the long term (2025) and 0.9%, 1.3% and 1.5% respectively for 2021, 2022 and 2023, this is not the case for growth. Analysts are already expecting a decrease compared to the latest forecasts: 4.4% growth in 2021 compared to the 5.3% forecast. This decline balances out in 2022: 4.8% growth against 3.7% forecast. Finally, long-term averages remained unchanged at 1.4%. These forecasts show us that the hope brought by vaccines in November quickly subsided as the pandemic continues to rage.
The British unemployment rate and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index will be the only major indicators of the day.