The NYSE set new records yesterday, at least the S&P500 (+0.3%) and the Nasdaq 100 (+0.4%), because the Dow Jones lost a little ground due to the fall in its bank stocks. The ten biggest US shares closed in the green yesterday, which helps. The S&P500 has gained 2.5% since the start of the year, while the Equities S&P500 is down 0.5%. This means, in other words, that the big stocks have regained power, outperforming the market by just over 3% in three weeks.

Futures on Wall Street are up by 0.4% this morning for the Dow Jones and 0.8% for the Nasdaq 100, following Netflix's announcement of significant subscriber additions in the fourth quarter.

Netflix's shares surged 10.6% in premarket trading after the streaming service reported earnings of $2.11 per diluted share for Q4, a substantial increase from $0.12 in the previous year, although slightly below the expected $2.22. The company's revenue also increased to $8.83 billion from $7.85 billion year-over-year, beating the forecast of $8.71 billion. It managed to get 13.1 million new subscribers in Q4, ahead of expectations.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng scored a second consecutive session of gains, for the first time in 2024. We shouldn't be too quick to declare victory, however, as gains tend to be volatile. In addition, the rise is partly due to the news that Jack Ma and the chairman of Alibaba have bought shares in the online retail giant. Let me remind you that on Monday, Beijing announced a support plan to boost stock markets, the details of which have yet to be worked out. Investors are wondering whether the announcements will really change the game.

For the tenth time in five years, reputable investors are proclaiming that this time, the rebound is underway. The fact that they've failed miserably so far doesn't mean they'll be wrong this time. Unfortunately for them, it doesn't guarantee they'll be right either. The Chinese market is undeniably getting cheaper, but irrefutably more and more dependent on the directives of the Chinese Communist Party. One wonders who pulled Jack Ma out of mothballs to opportunistically announce a return to buying the fallen giant Alibaba.

Meanwhile, Japan has woken up with a hangover. For several months now, there's been a system of communicating vessels between Hong Kong and Tokyo on the stock market, always to the advantage of the Japanese stock market. But not this morning, because yesterday's speech by the head of the Bank of Japan, following the decision to maintain the status quo on interest rates, sounded a little more orthodox than the market had expected. The financial world's bookmakers now believe 58% that the BOJ will raise rates at its April meeting. This compares with 44% previously. Japanese monetary policy is still at odds with that of the Fed and the ECB, which are considering rate cuts. It has to be said that the Archipelago does not face the same economic equation. The Nikkei 225 was down this morning, after its thunderous start to the year.

Today's session is marked by the publication of January's PMI activity indicators for the major economies. Investors like PMIs because they are fairly precise leading indicators. There's also a plethora of corporate results, including Tesla, Abbott, IBM, ASML, SAP, ServiceNow and Barry Callebaut.

Donald Trump won the New Hampshire Republican primary against Nikki Haley. The victory is not as overwhelming as in Iowa, but it strengthens the former president a little more. Many commentators believe that the die is cast, even if Haley plans to hang on and is counting on the next primaries, in her South Carolina fiefdom, to relaunch her campaign. In European news, the Turkish parliament has approved the principle of Sweden joining NATO.

In Europe, indices are mostly in the green, with Euro Stoxx 50 up 1.8%, while in Asia Pacific, India, Australia and Taiwan are up slightly.

Today's economic highlights:

Flash PMIs across the major economies and DOE crude inventories are on the agenda.

The dollar is down 0.5% against the euro and the pound to EUR 0.9166 and GBP 0.7842. The ounce of gold is stable at USD 2033. Oil loses a little ground, with North Sea Brent at USD 79.47 a barrel and US light crude WTI at USD 74.77. The yield on 10-year US debt stands at 4.11%. Bitcoin fell back to USD 39,900.

In corporate news:

  • ASML reported higher-than-expected fourth-quarter net income and sales on Wednesday, boosted by dynamic business in China. Sector stocks rose before the opening, with AMD, Intel and Applied Materials gaining between 1.2% and 1.9%.
  • SAP unveiled on Tuesday a €2 billion restructuring plan involving 8,000 positions, in order to better focus on growth in artificial intelligence (AI)-based business areas. The software manufacturer also announced that it expects to achieve sales of between 17 and 17.3 billion euros for its cloud computing services by 2024.
  • Tesla plans to start production of lower-cost electric vehicles in mid-2025, boosting the share price by 1.1% before the opening. The group will publish its results on Wednesday, after the close.
  • IBM will publish its results after the close.
  • Boeing – Alaska Airlines has found "loose bolts on many" 737 MAX 9s, the group said on Tuesday. Boeing will suspend 737 production for one day on Thursday. In other news, the nose wheel of a 757 operated by Delta Air Lines came off as the plane lined up for takeoff, according to the US Civil Aviation Authority (FAA).
  • Walgreens Boots Alliance is studying the possibility of selling specialty pharmacy company Shields Health Solutions, Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday. The group could be valued at more than $4 billion. Walgreen gains 2% before opening.
  • Ebay will cut around 1,000 jobs, or about 9% of its current workforce, the company said on Tuesday. The stock gains 3% before the opening.
  • Texas Instruments forecast quarterly sales below market expectations on Tuesday, as chip inventories swell and the first signs of weakness are felt in the automotive sector. The stock lost 4.2% before the opening.
  • AT&T reported a below-consensus annual profit on Wednesday, as it faces competition from other operators and the depreciation of some of its older equipment.
  • Elevance Health on Wednesday reported fourth-quarter sales ahead of analysts' estimates, thanks to higher premiums in its health insurance business and demand for its healthcare services.
  • General Dynamics reported a jump in fourth-quarter sales on Wednesday, as geopolitical tensions supported demand for its military equipment.
  • Baker Hughes - The oil technology company beat analysts' estimates for fourth-quarter earnings on Tuesday, thanks to strong demand for its services and equipment in international markets. The stock gained 1.1% after the close.
  • Intuitive Surgical beat Wall Street estimates for fourth-quarter sales and earnings on Tuesday, as a recovery in surgical operations boosted demand for its robots used in minimally invasive procedures. The stock gained 6.4% after the close.
  • Steel Dynamics reported a 33% drop in fourth-quarter earnings on Tuesday, penalized by higher raw material costs and lower product prices.

Analyst recommendations:

  • Accenture: Morgan Stanley maintains its overweight rating and raises the target price from USD 369 to USD 400.
  • Advanced Micro Devices: New Street Research LLP upgrades to buy from neutral with a price target raised from USD 100 to USD 215.
  • Assura: Panmure Gordon & Co. Limited downgrades to hold from buy with a price target reduced from GBX 59 to GBX 50.
  • Atlassian Corporation: Scotiabank maintains its sector perform recommendation with a price target raised from USD 185 to USD 230.
  • Big Yellow Group: Panmure Gordon & Co. Limited upgrades to buy from hold with a price target raised from GBX 1229 to GBX 1410.
  • British Land Company: Panmure Gordon & Co. Limited downgrades to hold from buy with a price target reduced from GBX 503 to GBX 400.
  • Centamin: Liberum upgrades to buy from hold with a price target raised from GBX 99 to GBX 109.
  • Ceres Power Holdings: Investec maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 1015 to GBX 765.
  • Crest Nicholson Holdings: Peel Hunt downgrades to hold from add with a price target raised from GBX 210 to GBX 220. JP Morgan maintains its underweight recommendation and raises the target price from 1.30 to GBP 1.60.
  • Crowdstrike Holdings: BMO Capital Markets maintains its outperform rating and raises the target price from USD 270 to USD 332. Scotiabank maintains its sector outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 238 to USD 320.
  • Derwent London: BNP Paribas Exane maintains a neutral recommendation with a price target raised from GBX 1820 to GBX 2450.
  • Dr Horton: JMP Securities maintains its market outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 140 to USD 170.
  • Easyjet: HSBC maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from 8.50 to GBP 6.36.
  • Epam Systems: Morgan Stanley maintains its underweight rating with a target price of USD 250. Morgan Stanley downgrades to underweight from equal weight with a price target raised from USD 235 to USD 250.
  • Fair Isaac Corporation: HSBC maintains its reduce recommendation and raises the target price from USD 725 to USD 936.
  • Fortinet: BMO Capital Markets maintains its market perform recommendation with a price target raised from USD 56 to USD 70. Scotiabank maintains its sector outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 52 to USD 70.
  • Hammerson: BNP Paribas Exane upgrades to neutral from underperform with a price target raised from GBX 23 to GBX 29.
  • Intuitive Surgical: Piper Sandler & Co maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 325 to USD 425. JP Morgan maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 325 to USD 475.
  • Iwg: Barclays maintains its equalweight recommendation and raises the target price from 1.26 to GBP 1.61.
  • Land Securities Group: BNP Paribas Exane downgrades to neutral from outperform with a price target raised from GBX 700 to GBX 720. Panmure Gordon & Co. Limited downgrades to hold from buy with a target price reduced from GBX 754 to GBX 710.
  • Molten Ventures Vct: Liberum upgrades to buy from sell with a price target raised from GBX 1189 to GBX 1650.
  • Netflix: Deutsche Bank downgrades to hold from buy with a price target raised from USD 460 to USD 525. Fubon Securities maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 473 to USD 608. Barclays maintains its equalweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 375 to USD 475. Bernstein maintains its market perform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 390 to USD 490.
  • Palo Alto Networks: Scotiabank maintains its sector outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 301 to USD 363.
  • Senior: Barclays downgrades to equalweight from overweight with a price target reduced from GBP 2.05 to GBP 1.68.
  • Shaftesbury Capi: Panmure Gordon & Co. Limited downgrades to hold from buy with a target price reduced from GBX 154 to GBX 150.
  • Stellantis: HSBC downgrades to hold from buy with a price target reduced from EUR 24 to EUR 22.
  • Texas Instruments: Morningstar downgrades to sell from hold with a price target reduced from USD 155 to USD 146.
  • Verizon Communications: Daiwa Securities upgrades to outperform from neutral with a price target raised from USD 36 to USD 47. New Street Research LLP maintains a neutral recommendation with a price target raised from USD 36 to USD 45.
  • Vertex Pharmaceuticals: Canaccord Genuity downgrades to sell from hold with a price target raised from USD 332 to USD 379.
  • Watches Of Switzerland Group: Investec maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from 865 to GBX 640.
  • Zscaler: Scotiabank maintains its sector outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 204 to USD 250.