TOP STORIES

Historic Aid Payments to Prop Up Struggling US Farm Belt -- Market Talk

13:08 ET - An historical cash infusion into the US farm economy will spare farmers and ranchers from falling income from commodity sales spurred in part by the coronavirus pandemic. Cash receipts for farm goods are expected to drop more than 3% this year, led by an 8% decline in receipts for broilers, cattle and calves, hogs and milk. Receipts for corn, wheat, cotton, and soybeans are also expected to drop, while receipts for fruits and nuts will rise. But a record $37B in payments from the Trump administration will boost farm income, and push payments to 36% of that income, the highest share in nearly two decades. The USDA meanwhile is considering further aid payments as farmers struggle with low commodity prices and a presidential election looms. (jesse.newman@wsj.com; @jessenewman13)

Impossible Catching Up to Beyond Meat in Supermarkets, JPM Says -- Market Talk

0925 ET - As the plant-based burger battles shift to grocery stores, JPMorgan says Beyond Meat's main competitor is catching up. Soy protein-based patty maker Impossible Foods lagged Beyond's push into retail meat cases, and in April its retail volume was just 1.9% the size of Beyond's, according to JPM analysts; four months later, following a major supermarket push by Impossible, the company's retail product volume is two-thirds as big as Beyond's. Among restaurants, JPM is "increasingly confident" that major fast-food chains are not going to be adding Beyond's burgers to menus in a substantial way for the rest of this year. (jacob.bunge@wsj.com; @jacobbunge)

STORIES OF INTEREST

Could Restaurant Chains Gain Share Post-Pandemic? -- Market Talk

13:13 ET - The restaurant industry is "really damaged on a more permanent basis," due to the pandemic and failures in Washington to support what is a big part of the broader economy, Tony Roth, chief investment officer at Wilmington Trust Investment Advisors, tells WSJ reporters on a call. The question the firm is still analyzing is whether smaller restaurants will reemerge or if over time there will be a shift to bigger chains. "You're not going to see people staying home and not going out [to eat], but there's going to be a deficit of options," he says. That comment supports, in theory, stronger demand at companies that get through the current crisis. (micah.maidenberg@wsj.com; @MicahMaidenberg)

US Ethanol Inventories Build, Production Slips -- Market Talk

1127 ET - US ethanol inventories are on the rise, the EIA says. Ethanol stockpiles are at 20.88 million barrels, the EIA says -- an uptick of 473,000 barrels from last week. Meanwhile, US ethanol production fell by 9,000 barrels per day, totaling 922,000 barrels per day. For corn traders, the report is bearish, as it indicates that a post-coronavirus recovery to the ethanol industry is on hold. For inventories, this week's figure is the highest they've been since mid-June. Corn futures on the CBOT have spent most of the day trading lower. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com, @kirkmaltais)

FUTURES MARKETS

Hog Futures Close at 3-Month High -- Market Talk

15:17 ET - Most-active lean hog futures trading on the CME finished up 2.5% to 56.4 cents per pound. It's the highest that hog futures have finished since June 2, and is the third straight session that hog futures have finished higher. They've risen 5.7% this week alone. It's also the third straight day that pork cutout prices have risen, with the carcass price up another $1.01 per hundredweight to $75.55 per cwt. Meanwhile, live cattle futures finished trading Wednesday down 1% to $1.04475 per pound. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com; @kirkmaltais)

CASH MARKETS


 
Estimated U.S. Pork Packer Margin Index - Sep 2 
 
All figures are on a per-head basis. 
 
Date     Standard Margin       Estimated margin 
         Operating Index         at vertically - 
                             integrated operations 
 
Sep  2       +$ 54.87            +$ 29.71 
Sep  1       +$ 60.95            +$ 30.72 
Aug 31       +$ 57.53            +$ 27.86 
 
* Based on Iowa State University's latest estimated cost of production. 
A positive number indicates a processing margin above the cost of production of the animals. 
 
Beef-O-Meter 
This report compares the USDA's latest beef carcass composite 
values as a percentage of their respective year-ago prices. 
                                  Beef 
          For Today              Choice   98.7 
      (Percent of Year-Ago)      Select  102.3 
 
USDA Boxed Beef, Pork Reports 
 

Wholesale choice-grade beef prices Wednesday fell 76 cents per hundred pounds, to $227.58, according to the USDA. Select-grade prices fell 93 cents per hundred pounds, to $213.82. The total load count was 114. Wholesale pork prices fell 47 cents, to $72.89 a hundred pounds, based on Omaha, Neb., price quotes.