Today, Futures on New York indices point to a flat opening for the Dow Jones, but up 0.5% for the Standard & Poor's 500 and 1.3% for the Nasdaq.

The background hasn’t changed: stock markets continue to move according to the various developments in debt-ceiling talks. A few of Republican lawmakers said they would oppose the deal reached on Sunday by Biden and McCarthy.

Investors are also cautious ahead of a series of economic indicators later in the week, which may influence the Fed's next monetary policy decision. These include monthly PMI in Europe and the USA (Thursday and Friday), the Fed's Beige Book (Wednesday) and the monthly US employment report (Friday), as well as inflation data for several European countries (Wednesday and Thursday).

At the moment, the financial community prefers to see the glass as half full. The month of May is drawing to a close, and it’s been pretty good for most stock market indices. The Nasdaq 100 gained 8% since the beginning of the month, boosted by the return of big tech to investors’ good graces. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 posted a handsome +7.14% on a monthly basis. Equity markets are holding up rather well overall, which is clearly not the case for another risky asset: oil. On the contrary, Brent crude is about to close its seventh consecutive month of decline. Since November 2022, it has been steadily losing ground. The price of a barrel has gradually fallen from USD 100 to USD 75 over this period, despite China's awakening and OPEC's production cuts. The rise of the greenback, but above all fears of a global economic slowdown, weighed on the black gold's momentum, prompting many traders to open short positions on oil. This negative positioning triggered a rather virulent reaction from the Saudi Energy Minister, who urged short sellers to "be careful". A warning that went rather unnoticed as OPEC+ is due to meet on Sunday June 4. Given the price momentum, will the oil cartel once again be proactive? The answer will be on Sunday.

Back to today's session. Earnings season is coming to an end, with few big names still due to post their results. Today, we have HP Inc after the close of Wall Street. As for data, the Conference Board's US consumer confidence index is today’s main indicator.

 

Economic highlights of the day:

On the agenda today, the HPI house price index and the Conference Board's consumer confidence index. This morning, Japan reported a sharper-than-expected -2.6% contraction in its unemployment rate. All the agenda is here. 

The dollar is down 0.2% to EUR 0.9315 and down 0.7% against the pound to 0.8043. The ounce of gold stabilizes at USD 1957. Oil is treading water, with North Sea Brent at USD 75.48 a barrel and US light crude WTI at USD 71.38. US debt has a 10-year yield of 3.77%. Bitcoin is trading at USD 27900.

 

In corporate news:

  • Nvidia announced Monday that it is building Israel's most powerful artificial intelligence (AI)-based supercomputer to meet growing customer demand for applications in the sector. It gained 3.9% in pre-market trading, becoming the first semiconductor company to surpass the $1,000 billion market capitalization threshold.
  • Microsoft will offer its artificial intelligence tools to BHP to improve copper extraction at its Escondida mine in Chile, the Australian group announced on Tuesday.
  • Boeing - Cathay Pacific Airways is close to placing an order worth around two billion dollars, with the US aircraft manufacturer for its 777-8F freighter aircraft, industry sources said on Monday.
  • Tesla - A private jet borrowed by Elon Musk, the head of the American automotive group, has arrived in Beijing, a Reuters reporter noted. The businessman is due to meet senior Chinese officials, sources said.
  • ConocoPhillips has purchased TotalEnergies' 50% interest in the Surmont oil sands in Canada for 4.03 billion Canadian dollars, the French group announced on Tuesday.
  • Uber announced on Monday that an increasing number of cab drivers in Europe were joining its platform, despite persistent uncertainties about labor rules in the sector.

 

Analyst recommendations:

  • Alliant Energy: BMO Capital Markets upgrades to outperform from market perform. PT up 9.9% to $56.
  • Boston Beer: Roth MKM upgrades to buy from neutral. PT up 21% to $386.
  • Coinbase: Atlantic Equities LLP upgrades to overweight from neutral. PT up 23% to $70.
  • Constellation Brands: Roth MKM upgrades to buy from neutral. PT up 16% to $270.
  • Medtronic: Morgan Stanley assumed coverage with a recommendation of overweight. PT up 28% to $104.