Investors are keeping their eyes glued to inflation, the market's current obsession. In a swift change of heart, the likelihood of a quarter-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on December 18 has jumped from 59% to 83% between yesterday and today. The catalyst? October's Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures in the United States, which matched expectations.

Although inflation saw a slight uptick, it was a relief to many who feared a sharper rise in prices. Such a scenario would have crushed any dreams of monetary easing by year-end. Yet, the 10-year US bond yield remains stubbornly high, signaling that the bond market is still wary of inflationary pressures. Today's Producer Price Index (PPI) data further soothed investor nerves, aligning with forecasts. The PPI rose 0.2% on a monthly basis and 2.4% annually, closely matching Bloomberg's economist consensus.

U.S. stock futures indicated a slight upward trend this morning as investors now await remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. He’s scheduled to speak at the Dallas Regional Chamber this afternoon, with other Federal Reserve officials also delivering remarks throughout the day.

The aftershocks of Donald Trump's second presidential victory continue to ripple through the financial world. Investors are pulling back their bullish positions on Wall Street, causing ripples in other markets. Meanwhile, significant changes are taking shape, particularly in the foreign exchange market. November 13 was not a day for market exuberance. European indices took a hit, rattled by concerns over a future dominated by Trump's policies. Across the Atlantic, Wall Street experienced a second day of relative calm, with minor index movements: the Nasdaq dipped by 0.16%, the Dow Jones edged up by 0.1%, and the S&P 500 barely moved at +0.02%. Hardly a day to make Democrats quiver.

President-elect Trump continued assembling his administration, filling it with individuals known for their strong opinions. He also received the news that his party holds a majority in the House of Representatives. The Democrats find themselves in a tough spot, with Republicans controlling the White House, Senate, House, and Supreme Court. With checks and balances diminished, investment bank strategists are discarding moderate forecasts in favor of more extreme scenarios, as Trump has a clear path to implement his policies. What lies ahead for Trump's relationship with the Federal Reserve? Likely a contentious one. Expect verbal clashes with Jerome Powell if the Fed is compelled to adopt restrictive monetary policies to counter potential inflation from Trump's plans.

Republican hardliners might also push to curtail the Fed's power, a long-standing goal of theirs. In the short term, Trump's return is most evident in currency markets. The euro, yen, and other major currencies are sliding. Japan's yen is nearing levels that typically prompt intervention, as authorities can't afford excessive depreciation. The dollar's volatility is also impacting emerging markets. Oil prices remain steady, caught between U.S. production prospects and OPEC+'s price stabilization efforts. India has surpassed China as the leading source of Asian oil demand growth. The Commonwealth of Independent States, primarily Russia, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan, now supply 43% of India's oil, a significant jump from less than 2% in 2021. The Ukraine conflict and embargoes have reshaped supply routes.

In corporate news, LVMH is shuffling its leadership, while Cisco, Deutsche Telekom, Alstom, and Siemens AG report earnings. Thales and ASML unveil their medium-term strategies. In Asia Pacific, the Nikkei 225 fell for the third straight session, down 0.4%. The Hang Seng in Hong Kong marked its fourth consecutive decline, down 7% since last Thursday. Mainland China couldn't buck the trend, losing 1.7%. South Korea and Australia managed slight recoveries, up 0.5%. India saw its sixth consecutive decline, with the Nifty 50 down 0.1%. European indices are clawing back some ground, with the Stoxx Europe 600 up 0.8%.

Today’s economic highlights:

The US October Producer Price Index and the latest weekly jobless claims are today’s main indicators. Jerome Powell is due to speak. See the full calendar here.

In corporate news:

  • Walt Disney saw a 6.6% increase in pre-market trading after reporting better-than-expected earnings, driven by profitable streaming operations.
  • Cisco Systems experienced a 3.4% decline despite optimistic future projections linked to increased investments in AI infrastructure.
  • ASML confirmed its revenue outlook for 2030, anticipating sales between 44 billion and 60 billion euros, with global chip sales expected to surpass $1 trillion by 2030 due to AI demand.
  • JD.com reported a 5.1% revenue increase for the third quarter, though it fell short of analyst expectations, resulting in a 1.2% drop in its ADR.
  • Tapestry gained 5.8% while Capri Holdings fell by the same margin after abandoning their $8.5 billion merger plan, which faced opposition from the U.S. Federal Trade Commission.
  • Eli Lilly's late-stage trial of injectable Tirzepatide shows positive results in diabetes prevention
  • AMD to cut around 4% of its global workforce.
  • B. Riley delays publication of its quarterly report and announces a loss linked to the Franchise bankruptcy.

Today's main publications: Walt Disney Company, Applied Materials, Brookfield Corporation, JD.com, Williams-Sonoma...

Analyst recommendations:

  • Boston Properties, Inc.: Compass Point Research & Trading upgrades to buy from neutral with a price target raised from USD 80 to USD 88.
  • Campbell Soup Company: Piper Sandler & Co upgrades to overweight from neutral with a price target raised from USD 47 to USD 56.
  • Doximity, Inc.: Morgan Stanley upgrades to equal weight from underweight with a target price raised from USD 33 to USD 53.
  • Newell Brands Inc.: Baptista Research downgrades to underperform from hold with a target price raised from USD 8.40 to USD 8.90.
  • On Semiconductor Corporation: Baptista Research upgrades to buy from hold with a price target raised from USD 77.50 to USD 86.10.
  • Prudential Financial, Inc.: Evercore ISI upgrades to in-line from underperform with a price target raised from USD 117 to USD 140.
  • Realty Income Corporation: Mizuho Securities downgrades to neutral from outperform with a price target reduced from USD 64 to USD 60.
  • Unum Group: Evercore ISI upgrades to outperform from in-line with a price target raised from USD 67 to USD 84.
  • Bellring Brands, Inc.: Jefferies maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 61 to USD 84.
  • Cava Group, Inc.: Loop Capital Markets maintains its hold recommendation with a price target raised from 122 to USD 147.
  • Chart Industries, Inc.: Wells Fargo maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 163 to USD 215.
  • Cisco Systems, Inc.: Jefferies maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 53 to USD 66.
  • Cyberark Software Ltd.: TD Cowen maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 330 to USD 400.
  • Dutch Bros Inc.: Stifel maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 42 to USD 53.
  • Equitable Holdings, Inc.: Evercore ISI maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 46 to USD 58.
  • Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.: Bernstein maintains its market perform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 216 to USD 267.
  • Lumentum Holdings Inc.: Morgan Stanley maintains its market weight recommendation and raises the target price from 61 to USD 76.
  • Nvidia Corporation: Raymond James maintains its strong buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 140 to USD 170.
  • On Holding Ag: Redburn Atlantic maintains its neutral recommendation with a price target raised from 37 to USD 50.
  • Spotify Technology S.a.: DZ Bank AG Research maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 375 to USD 500.
  • Tesla, Inc.: Jefferies maintains its hold recommendation with a price target raised from USD 195 to USD 300.
  • Dr. Martens Plc: Goldman Sachs upgrades to neutral from sell with a target price reduced from GBX 71 to GBX 64.
  • Spirax Group Plc: Shore Capital upgrades to hold from sell.