OPENING CALL
Stock futures hovered on Tuesday while Treasury yields eased a little as rate-cut disappointment appears to be wearing off.
Fourth-quarter earnings season is reaching midway, with just under 50% of S&P 500 companies having reported, with the session ahead bringing a slew of new results.
Overseas Markets
Chinese stocks surged. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.2%, its best day since March 2022, while the Hang Seng rallied 4%. Beijing appears to be ramping up efforts to boost equities after a yearslong slump.
European shares were mixed, as the FTSE 100 was boosted by sharp gains for BP after earnings trumped expectations, while German stocks lagged.
Premarket Movers
BP raised its share buyback and posted higher-than-expected annual profit, although results still dropped from the prior-year's record highs. Shares listed in New York climbed 5.5% before the bell, as did those in London.
Chegg was falling more than 9% following disappointing guidance for the first quarter.
Coherent reported results for its latest quarter that topped Wall Street's estimates. Shares rose 10%.
Analysts expect Eli Lilly to report fourth-quarter earnings of $2.30 a share on sales of $8.9 billion. The stock was rising almost 3%.
U.S.-listed shares of MorphoSys were rising 2% after Novartis agreed to acquire the company for $2.9 billion.
NXP Semiconductors was rising around 3% after reporting fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $3.71 a share and revenue of $3.42 billion, beating analysts' estimates on both metrics.
Palantir Technologies announced a record profit for 2023 as commercial orders jumped. The company's chief executive said its new AI platform is driving demand. Shares rose almost 20%.
Rambus fell 10% after it posted fourth-quarter revenue of $122.2 million, down from $122.4 million a year earlier.
Symbotic was down 20%. The company reported a first-quarter loss of 2 cents a share, narrower than a year-earlier loss of 12 cents, and revenue of $368.5 million, up from $206.3 million.
UBS reported its second consecutive quarterly loss, hit by expenses related to its takeover of Credit Suisse, but upped its dividend and said it would resume share buybacks this year. U.S.-listed shares fell 3%.
Monday's Post-Close Movers
Crown Holdings forecast weaker demand for its can-making equipment and in its North American aerosol business after sales fell and missed analysts' estimates in the fourth quarter. The company issued 2024 adjusted earnings guidance below analysts' estimates and fourth-quarter profit fell. Shares fell 14%.
FMC's results in the fourth quarter continued to be hit by destocking trends and weaker sales in Latin America, with revenue falling more than expected. The company also issued 2024 outlook that was below its earlier preliminary expectations. Shares fell 13%.
Watch For:
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks at the Montreal Council on Foreign Relations; Earnings from Eli Lilly, Ford, GE Healthcare Technologies, Chipotle Mexican Grill, KKR, Spotify, Snap, Gilead Sciences, Fortinet, DuPont, Enphase Energy
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MARKET WRAPS
Forex:
The dollar edged lower following steep gains in the previous session when markets reversed expectations for early interest-rate cuts by the Fed.
The currency remained supported but it could soon run out of steam and any further gains should be limited, Commerzbank said.
This week's calendar is light and "while there are plenty of Fed speakers on the schedule, it will be hard for them to sound any more hawkish than what we have already heard."
Inflation is coming down so it shouldn't be too many months before the Fed cuts rates, Commerzbank said.
Indosuez Wealth Management takes a tactically positive view on the dollar in the short-term but is slightly negative in the longer term.
Further out, procyclical currencies would benefit at the dollar's expense if the soft-landing scenario for 2024 materializes and major central banks begin to cut interest rates in the second quarter , it said. "The dollar is also suffering more structurally from de-dollarisation ."
Indosuez also said the euro is vulnerable in the short term as the eurozone economy is most likely to suffer if Middle East tensions are protracted and it remains at risk of recession.
It is tactically slightly underweight on EUR/USD, targeting it at the lower end of a range between 1.07 and 1.10.
The euro continued to bear the brunt of a stronger dollar, with EUR/USD trading close to its lowest level since mid-December, Pepperstone said.
"The eurozone economic outlook remains rather dour, despite better-than-expected (albeit skewed) German factory orders data."
German manufacturing orders rose by an adjusted 8.9% on the month in December, outperforming expectations of a 0.5% fall in The Wall Street Journal's poll, with the jump driven by aircraft purchases.
Energy:
Oil prices ticked lower as investors weighed escalating geopolitical risk in the Middle East against hawkish comments from the Fed and a stronger dollar.
"The only real threat to prices is escalation in the Persian Gulf between the US, Iran, and the coterie of producers who must ship through the Strait of Hormuz," Rabobank said.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia left its March price for Arab Light crude to Asian customers unchanged from the previous month at a more than two-year low.
The move surprised market watchers as the top oil exporter was expected to raise its official selling price amid supply disruption concerns, according to analysts.
Metals:
Base metals edged higher in early London trading, clawing back some territory after multiple days of losses while gold remained volatile following a rebound in U.S. yields and a stronger dollar.
Sucden Financial said China might have experienced economic expansion in the services sector, but the country's decision to reduce its dependence on foreign investment has caused a recent decline in the performance of base metals, exacerbated by a rally in the dollar.
Iron Ore
Cit said the global iron-ore market is likely to record a modest surplus this year and next. It expects the surplus for both 2024 and 2025 to account for roughly 1%-2% of total seaborne supply.
Additionally, thin steelmaking margins in China are likely to keep prices for low-grade iron ore supported, Citi said.
TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
WeWork Landlords Challenge Unpaid Rent as Violation of Bankruptcy Law
Lawyers for certain WeWork landlords said the bankrupt co-working space provider is violating bankruptcy rules by not making rent payments.
The landlords haven't been paid for January and February rents even though they have been in negotiations over lease terms with WeWork, lawyers for the landlords told Judge John Sherwood with the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in New Jersey at a Monday hearing. WeWork said it withheld rents for landlords to come to the negotiation table, but that's not what's happening, said Ivan Gold, a lawyer representing the landlords.
Toyota Cashes In on Booming Hybrid Sales
TOKYO-Gasoline-electric vehicles are flying off dealer lots in the U.S. and generating a windfall for the reigning hegemon of hybrids, Toyota Motor.
Toyota on Tuesday forecast a record $30.3 billion net profit for the fiscal year ending March thanks to higher sales of hybrid vehicles in all of its major markets. The results sent Toyota shares up 4.8% in Tokyo to close at a record high.
BOJ to Mull Ending Stock-Buying Program When Inflation Goal in Sight, Gov. Says
TOKYO-Bank of Japan Gov. Kazuo Ueda said Tuesday that the bank would discuss the possibility of ending its stock-buying program when it becomes confident about achieving sustainable 2% inflation.
"We will consider whether we should continue [the stock-buying program] and other measures when the time comes for us to review our current large-scale monetary easing-that is, when the sustainable and stable achievement of our price goal is in sight," Ueda said in a parliamentary committee meeting.
Looming Rate Cuts Make Bonds Attractive, Even After Recent Rallies, Jupiter AM Says - Interview
The prospect of significant interest-rate cuts by both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank promise solid returns for bond investors in 2024, Ariel Bezalel, fixed income investment manager at Jupiter Asset Management told Dow Jones Newswires.
Government bonds have already priced in meaningful rate cuts but there's still more room for yields to fall, he said in an interview.
Iran-Backed Groups Continue to Target American Bases as U.S. Plans Further Strikes
A strike near a U.S. base in Syria killed six members of a U.S.-allied militia Monday, the group said, despite the U.S. pounding Iran-allied militia sites with airstrikes over the weekend, underscoring the challenge Washington faces in its goal of keeping the conflict in the Middle East contained.
A U.S. military official confirmed that there were fatalities from an attack on the al-Omar oil field, part of a complex that includes a U.S. base and is jointly controlled with the American military. The official declined to comment further.
Nikki Haley Asks for Secret Service Protection After Increase in Threats
AIKEN, S.C.-Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley has applied for Secret Service protection because of increasing threats she has received as Donald Trump's last major opponent for the 2024 GOP nomination.
Haley confirmed the application for protection in an interview Monday afternoon with The Wall Street Journal.
Biden's Support From Progressives at Risk Over Border Bill and Israel
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
02-06-24 0615ET
