Stock futures dipped and bond yields moved higher on Thursday as recent hopes over a summer rate cut were pared somewhat.

Markets are pricing in a 91.3% probability that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at a range of 5.25% to 5.50% after its next meeting in June, and a 68.6% probability it will do so after its July gathering, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

The chances of at least a 25 basis point rate cut by the subsequent meeting in September is priced at 65.7%. The central bank is expected to take its Fed funds rate target back down to around 4.98% by December 2024, according to 30-day Fed Funds futures.

Coming up Thursday

The Bank of England will make its interest-rate decision; The WSJ's annual CEO Council continues in London. Featured guests include former CNN President Jeff Zucker and Swarovski CEO Alexis Nasard.

Premarket Movers

Airbnb said it expects second-quarter revenue of $2.68 billion to $2.74 billion, with the midpoint of the forecast below forecasts of $2.74 billion. Shares fell 8%.

AMC Entertainment reported a first-quarter loss that narrowed from a year earlier. Shares fell 2.5%.

AppLovin rose 15% after it reported first-quarter revenue and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization that topped Wall Street forecasts.

U.S.-listed shares of Arm fell 7.7% after it issued a fiscal 2025 forecast that underwhelmed investors.

Beyond Meat declined 15% after its second-quarter revenue guidance was below Wall Street's expectations.

Duolingo's second-quarter forecast was a bit shy of estimates and the stock was down 12%.

Klaviyo was up 8.4%. The company raised its fiscal-year revenue outlook to $899 million to $907 million from previous guidance of $889 million to $897 million.

Robinhood Markets reported first-quarter earnings of 18 cents a share on revenue of $618 million, beating Wall Street estimates for profit of 6 cents on revenue of $553 million. The stock rose 4.3%.

SolarEdge Technologies fell 7.8% after it posted a wider-than-expected loss in the first quarter and said it expects second-quarter revenue of between $250 million and $280 million, below analysts' estimates of $307 million.

Watch For:

Weekly Jobless Claims; Weekly Export Sales; Monthly Retail Chain Store Sales Index; Federal Discount Window Borrowings; Foreign Central Bank Holdings; earnings from Constellation Energy, Roblox, Warner Bros, Hyatt Hotels, Dropbox, Yelp, Krispy Kreme

Today's Headlines/Must Reads:

- Buybacks Are Back: Corporate America Is on a Spending Spree

- More Regulators Eye Whistleblower Award Programs Hoping for Insider Tips

- FBI Warns Hackers' Use of AI Is Growing. So Is the Bureau's



The dollar edged higher as investors become wary that U.S. data next week could show inflation remains elevated, keeping prospects of interest rates having to stay high even after the weaker-than-expected jobs report, ING said.

Investors remain wary that another strong U.S. core CPI reading of 0.3% month-on-month "merely cements the view of the Fed keeping rates higher for longer."

The dollar could gain momentum too if the Bank of England suggests rates will be cut soon when it announces a decision at 1100 GMT, ING said.


Oil prices were trading higher, supported by a weekly fall in U.S. crude inventories, but gains were capped by a stronger dollar, lingering concerns around the timing of U.S. interest-rate cuts and a ceasefire deal in Gaza.

Analysts said a broader weakness in the market is increasing the likelihood that OPEC+ will roll over cuts in the second half of the year.

"OPEC+ members will become uncomfortable if Brent starts flirting with $80/bbl, a level which is not too far away," ING said.

Meanwhile, China's trade data showed signs of a recovery in domestic demand.

"We think the composition of economic growth is favoring commodity demand, particularly the acceleration in manufacturing and the energy transition," ANZ Research said.


Gold futures edged down, as central bank buying in China eased.

April saw the lowest amount of gold purchases by China's central bank since November 2022, and is the second month in a row the bank considerably slowed its gold buying-perhaps in response to historically high prices,

The importance of central bank gold purchases has risen since the coronavirus pandemic, and those purchases are key to gauging the future trajectory for the precious metal's prices, JPMorgan said.

A "fear of missing out" sentiment could be driving "exaggerated" near-term price movements in base metals, Macquarie said.

The U.S. and U.K. banning fresh trading in metals originating from Russia and BHP's bid for Anglo American are likely driving bullish sentiment in the short term. That creates risks for a price pullback across the board should negative surprises emerge, Macquarie said.

The easing in disinflation driving "higher for longer" rates also creates risks for prices. However, improving physical demand will likely offset any possible retreat in prices, while service PMIs globally suggest a pickup in economic growth, resulting in a healthy environment for risk assets like base metals, Macquarie said.

Iron Ore

Citi said there are divergent views over exactly where the price of iron ore is headed next, citing discussions at the Singapore Iron Ore Forum.

While bulls predict policy support from Beijing will spur a rebound this year in China's property industry--a big buyer of steel, made with iron ore--bears point to a structural oversupply in the Chinese property market and low consumer confidence.

Citi reckons iron-ore prices could head back to roughly $120/metric ton within the next three months, but said it doesn't see how prices could move sustainably higher without more significant policy measures in China.

"We continue to anchor 2Q-3Q trading around $110/ton."


Norfolk Southern Shareholders Vote Thursday to Keep or Fire CEO

Norfolk Southern's embattled chief is about to learn his fate.

The freight railroad's shareholders have been voting in recent days to decide whether to keep Alan Shaw as CEO or back an activist investor's efforts to overhaul management and take control of the company's board. The polls will close at the end of a shareholder meeting Thursday that starts at 8.30 a.m. in Atlanta.

Shell and Total Talk of Moving to New York. It's No Cure-All.

Fossil fuel-bashing investors are a handy scapegoat for anyone looking to explain why Europe's oil giants suffer from low valuations. But upping sticks to the U.S. won't necessarily fix the problem.

European oil bosses are talking openly about moving their stock-market listings to the U.S.

Spain's BBVA Goes Hostile in Pursuit of Smaller Banking Rival Sabadell

BBVA, Spain's second-largest lender by assets, launched a hostile, $12 billion-plus takeover bid for smaller rival Banco de Sabadell, signaling a potential resurgence of dealmaking in Europe's long-moribund banking sector.

The move comes days after Sabadell's board rejected an all-stock offer from BBVA, or Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria. It underscores BBVA's continued hunger for the smaller bank, which it first tried to acquire four years ago.

Country Garden Misses Bond Payments, Says State Could Help

Country Garden Holdings said a state guarantor could come to its aid after the troubled developer missed deadlines for bond payments, presenting a key test for a government entity in dealing with an ongoing debt crisis in China's property sector.

Heavily indebted Country Garden said Thursday that it couldn't pay interest on two government-guaranteed bonds due on May 9, but that it would try to make the payments - which total the equivalent of about $9.1 million - by Monday, within the grace period.

Apple Sees Growing Backlash Against Ad Depicting Crushed Creative Tools

An Apple advertisement that depicts a patchwork of creative tools being crushed and revealing a new iPad in their place is facing broad criticism on social media.

The ad, which Chief Executive Tim Cook posted on X after Apple unveiled new iPads Tuesday, depicts a studio filled with musical instruments, a record player, cans of paint with vibrant colors and other items being physically crushed by what appears to be a giant compressor.

China Exports Return to Growth, But Risks Remain

China's exports swung back to growth in April after a short-lived drop in March, continuing to prove a driver for the world's second-largest economy as it struggles to revive domestic demand.

Outbound shipments rose 1.5% in April from a year ago, reversing from a 7.5% drop in March, the General Administration of Customs said Thursday. The result topped the 1.0% growth expected by economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.

BOJ's Policy Board Becoming More Concerned About Effects of Weaker Yen

TOKYO-The Bank of Japan's board is becoming more concerned about the inflation outlook as a sharply weaker yen threatens to drive up import prices, a summary of its latest meeting showed.

"While the yen's depreciation is likely to push down the economy in the short run through price rises driven by cost-push factors, it could push up underlying inflation in the medium to long run" through increases in inbound spending and domestic production, one of the BOJ's nine policy board members said at the meeting held on April 25 and 26.

America's Cash for Clunkers Is Back-in China

SINGAPORE-In a new push to boost the economy, China's leaders are resurrecting a policy familiar to many Americans from the 2008-09 financial crisis: cash for clunkers.

Beijing isn't just dangling financial incentives to trade in old jalopies for new vehicles, though, as the U.S. did. It also wants households to swap out rickety home appliances and factories to get new equipment.

Platinum Market Faces Largest Shortfall in Supply For a Decade

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05-09-24 0622ET