After a surprise decision to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in April, OPEC+ on Saturday announced a similar increase starting in June.
While OPEC+ had initially planned to gradually return the 2.2 million barrels per day in production cuts decided at the end of 2022 to the market, the pace is now faster. This decision wasn't really liked by the market at a time when global growth is being revised downward due to the impact of the US trade policy. This explains the drop in oil prices, which are now at their lowest level since 2021 and down about 20% for the year.
The OPEC+ decision may seem surprising, given that for several years the cartel has been working to keep prices at relatively high levels. However, Saudi Arabia seems frustrated by a situation in which it has borne the brunt of production cuts—the kingdom reduced its output by 2 million barrels per day—while other members, such as Kazakhstan and Iraq, have prioritized their own interests and consistently exceeded their quotas.
On the stockmarket, this drop in prices has led to a significant underperformance by oil companies, whose results are directly affected. TotalEnergies, for example, is down 5% in 2025, compared with an increase of around 5% for the CAC40 over the same period.
Nevertheless, the decline in oil prices is benefiting companies whose costs are heavily dependent on oil prices. This is the case, for example, with airlines. On Monday, Ryanair shares were up 6%, while Air France-KLM and Lufthansa both gained 2%.
