Gold prices are nearing record highs, boosted by talks of de-dollarization, fueled by the BRICS summit and rumors of a gold-backed BRICS currency. Investors are awaiting insights from Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker, who is scheduled to speak later today. They're also looking forward to the American Petroleum Institute's weekly report on US crude oil inventory levels to refine their scenarios.

Investors are on edge as the US presidential election approaches in 14 days. The bond market is showing signs of anxiety. Yesterday, the yield on 10-year US debt increased by 10 basis points, a significant move. This is the highest level since July 27, partly driven by speculation of a more assertive Federal Reserve. The CME FedWatch Tool now indicates an 11% probability of the Fed maintaining current rates, up from just 3% a week ago. The Democrats' slight lead in the presidential race has diminished, and this gives investors something to worry about. Donald Trump appears to be gaining ground, when looking at the performance of bitcoin, Trump Media shares, and the odds of bookmakers. A potential return of Trump to office would stir the markets, as he would be focusing on increased protectionism, which could fuel inflation, and lower taxes, and which would initially increase the deficit. These factors contribute to US interest rates staying high for longer.

This explains the decline in bonds and the sharp rise in yields, especially as Fed officials advocate for a slower pace of easing. The rapid rate-cutting scenario is no longer likely. Consequently, the rise in US bond yields has bolstered the dollar, returning it to early August levels against the euro. This situation disrupted Wall Street yesterday. Uncertainty over interest rates hit the property and financial sectors, causing the Dow Jones to fall by 0.8% and the Russell 2000 by 1.6%. The US small-cap index, rich in financial stocks, is sensitive to interest rate changes. The S&P 500 limited its losses to 0.2% thanks to technology stocks. This also helped the Nasdaq 100 rise by 0.2%, aided by Nvidia, which soared by 4.2% and is now challenging Apple's market capitalization.

In Europe, markets were broadly down, particularly in France, where the CAC 40 fell by 1%, weighed down by luxury goods stocks. The sector is reacting to concerns about consumer spending recovery in China, despite recent government announcements. On the geopolitical front, the BRICS meeting in Russia gained even more importance as China and India resolved a border dispute that had caused serious incidents in recent years. This signals significant developments in forming a new bloc.

Today, companies like Verizon, Texas Instruments, Lockheed Martin, L'Oréal, and Philip Morris are reporting earnings. In the Asia-Pacific region, Chinese markets rose slightly, but others were in the red. European indices are also bearish, as are futures on Wall Street.

Economic highlights:

The Richmond Fed manufacturing index is on the agenda. 

The dollar is worth EUR 0.9240 and GBP 0.7707. The ounce of gold remains high at USD 2,730. Oil remains low, with North Sea Brent at USD 74.58 a barrel and US light crude WTI at USD 70.65. The yield on 10-year US debt rose to 4.19%. Bitcoin is hovering around USD 67,300.

In corporate news:

  • Microsoft launches ‘AI agents’ that you can create yourself.
  • Monroe Capital - French investment fund Wendel announced on Tuesday the acquisition of a 75% stake in Monroe Capital for 1.13 billion.
  • General Motors topped analysts' expectations in the third quarter, citing solid sales of its trucks and SUVs and effective inventory management.
  • Danaher exceeded expectations in the third quarter, reporting earnings per share of 1.71 dollars, vs 1.57 dollars expected by analysts.
  • Walt Disney plans to appoint Bob Iger's successor at the beginning of 2026.
  • Medpace plunges 11% after trading after its quarterly results.
  • Nucor loses 2% after trading after its quarterly results.
  • Nike extends its partnership with the NBA and WNBA by 12 years.
  • News Corp sues Perplexity AI for alleged content plagiarism.
  • Qualcomm redesigns its mobile phone chips for AI, signs with Samsung and others.
  • Lucid says its capital increase will give it ‘financial headroom’ until 2026.
  • An activist investor asks The Cheesecake Factory to consider a spin-off, according to the WSJ.

Today's main earnings reports: Danaher, Philip Morris, Verizon, GE Aerospace, Texas Instruments, RTX Corporation, Lockheed Martin, Fiserv, Moody's, Southern Copper, 3M Company, General Motors, Paccar, Kimberly-Clark, Baker Hughes...

Analyst recommendations :

  • Duke Energy Corporation: KeyBanc Capital Markets downgrades to sector weight from overweight.
  • First Solar, Inc.: Citi upgrades to buy from neutral with a price target raised from USD 200 to USD 254.
  • Global Payments Inc.: Bernstein downgrades to market perform from outperform with a price target reduced from USD 135 to USD 112.
  • Paylocity Holding Corporation: Jefferies upgrades to buy from hold with a price target raised from USD 145 to USD 200.
  • Booking Holdings Inc.: Argus Research Company maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 4000 to USD 5045.
  • Carvana Co.: Jefferies remains at hold with a price target raised from USD 150 to USD 185.
  • Cbre Group, Inc.: Wolfe Research maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 121 to USD 148.
  • Fidelity National Information Services, Inc.: Bernstein maintains its market perform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 72 to USD 91.
  • Generac Holdings, Inc.: Citigroup remains neutral recommendation with a price target raised from USD 128 to USD 172.
  • Lam Research Corporation: B Riley Securities Inc. maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 1325 to USD 105.
  • Lyft, Inc.: Jefferies remains at a hold recommendation with a target price raised from USD 10.50 to USD 13.
  • Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.: Barclays maintains its equalweight recommendation and raises the target price from 21 to USD 26.
  • Royal Caribbean Group: Barclays maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from 195 to USD 244.
  • Targa Resources Corp.: Mizuho Securities maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 147 to USD 181.
  • Wizz Air Holdings Plc: Trigon Dom Maklerski SA downgrades to buy from hold with a price target reduced from GBP 15.70 to GBP 14.90.
  • Lloyds Banking Group Plc: Deutsche Bank maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from GBX 64 to GBX 83.
  • Morgan Sindall Group Plc: HSBC maintains its buy recommendation with a price target raised from 29.30 to GBP 36.15.
  • Spectris Plc: Investec maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from 3850 to GBX 2725.
  • Tfi International Inc.: Stephens downgrades to equalweight from overweight with a target price of USD 149.