Talking Points
- EUR/USD fails again near key moving average
- GOLD cracks key retracement
- USD/SEK records a new multi-year high
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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:
Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- EUR/USD ran into resistance again near the 20-day moving average last week
- Our near-term trend bias remains positive while above 1.1210
- Interim resistance is seen around 1.1390, but a move over 1.1530 is really required to trigger a more meaningful push higher
- A very minor turn window is seen on Tuesday
- A close under 1.1210 would turn us negative on the exchange rate
EUR/USD Strategy: Like holding only reduced long positions while above 1.1210.
Instrument | Support 2 | Support 1 | Spot | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
EUR/USD | *1.1210 | 1.1260 | 1.1310 | 1.1390 | *1.1535 |
Price & Time Analysis: GOLD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- GOLD broke below the 50% retracement of the year’s range on Friday to trade at its lowest level in three weeks
- Our near-term trend bias is negative while below 1274
- The 61.8% retracement of the year’s range near 1220 is the next important pivot of note for the metal
- A medium-term turn window is seen next week
- A close over 1274 would turn us positive on Gold again
GOLD Strategy: Square.
Instrument | Support 2 | Support 1 | Spot | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
GOLD | *1220 | 1228 | 1241 | 1247 | *1274 |
Focus Chart of the Day: USD/SEK
We have mentioned before in this space that oftentimes USD/SEK will lead broader moves in USD/Europe. We have never really been able to come up with a good explanation as for why this occurs and so often, but it is worth mentioning nonetheless. This morning USD/SEK is seemingly at it again as the exchange rate traded at its highest level in almost six years. With EUR/USD and other key European pairs having undergone sharp reversals in the direction of the primary trend on Friday we can’t help but wonder if the action in Dollar/Stokkie is just a precursor for all the rest. A close above 8.3850 is needed to confirm the breakout in USD/SEK while a close below 1.1210 in EUR/USD is required to confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend.
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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.
--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX
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