Talking Points
- EUR/USD struggles ahead of the FOMC
- GBP/USD rally losing momentum
- Dollar-Stokkie breaks out to a 4-year high
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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:
Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- EUR/USD has rallied modestly over the past few days after finding support last week near the 1st square root relationship of the year’s low in the 1.2605 area
- Our near-term bias is positive on the exchange rate while above 1.2585
- However, a move over 1.2835 is really need to setup any sort of meaningful upside push
- An important turn window is eyed this week
- A move under 1.2585 will turn us negative on the euro again
EUR/USD Strategy: Square, but like selling EUR/USD on a clear break of 1.2585.
Instrument | Support 2 | Support 1 | Spot | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
EUR/USD | *1.2585 | 1.2605 | 1.2695 | 1.2755 | *1.2835 |
Price & Time Analysis: GBP/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- GBP/USD has struggled higher over the past few days after finding support last week near the 61.8% retracement of the late October range near 1.5990
- Our near-term trend bias is higher in Cable while over 1.5990
- However, a push through 1.6180 is required to get more excited about the pair’s upside prospects
- An important turn window is eyed mid-week
- A close under 1.5990 would turn us negative on the pound
GBP/USD Strategy: Square, but like getting short on a close under 1.5990.
Instrument | Support 2 | Support 1 | Spot | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
GBP/USD | *1.5990 | 1.6065 | 1.6120 | *1.6180 | 1.6220 |
Focus Chart of the Day: USD/SEK
The Riksbank surprised markets on Tuesday by lowering the key repo rate by 25 basis points to 0.00% This has led to a sharp rally in USD/SEK which has seen the exchange rate trade at its highest level in more than four years. More important for us is the technical damage that has been done as the exchange rate broke out of its month-long consolidation and through the 61.8% retracement of the 2010/2011 range. As we have stated in recent notes, our cyclical analysis suggests the USD should try to resume its broader uptrend over the next few days and the action in USD/SEK so far today bodes well for this view as the rate has had a tendency in the past to be a leader of general USD trends. We have never been able to find a reasonable explanation for this phenomena, but it is worth noting nonetheless as the Greenback enters into this key cyclical period. The 161.8% extension of the early October range near 7.4200 looks like the next level of meaningful resistance with a break there exposing 7.4900. Only a close back under 7.1700 would warn of a potential false upside break.
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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX
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