Fortunately, there was no bad news at the end of the week. It was a good thing too, as stock market indices were closed for the long Easter weekend. The US consumer spending price index came out in line with expectations for February. In the seasonally-adjusted "Core" version, the anticipated rise was 0.3%. In short, we are indeed witnessing a slowdown in inflation, as mentioned by Jerome Powell at the last Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

However, US household incomes rose by less than expected (+0.3% vs. 0.4%), and were clearly down on the previous month's +1%. Personal spending, up 0.8% vs. +0.5% expected, was concentrated on motor vehicles and transportation services. Most of this increase can therefore be attributed to households at the upper end of the income distribution curve.

Overall, these latest statistics do not call into question the current narrative. On the contrary, investors seem comforted by the prospect of the Fed's first monetary easing by summer. The 10-year yield remains within a narrow consolidation band of 4.07% and 4.35%. A breach of the lower boundary should mark the end of the recovery initiated since the end of last year, and relaunch the downward momentum towards 3.85% and then 3.58%. On the other hand, a breakout above 4.35% could weigh on the performance of the equity indices and open up potential at 4.60%.